tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post1549735487327964817..comments2024-02-01T00:37:24.768-05:00Comments on PTP: No Whipping, DRF Solid, Is this Horse a True 999-1 Shot?Pull the Pockethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-47690487639193999362011-01-29T15:25:43.930-05:002011-01-29T15:25:43.930-05:00Probably a bot program which was triggered to take...Probably a bot program which was triggered to take any bids up to 9999-1 based on the speed the horse's odds changed IN PLAY. The program is probably right 9999 out of 10,000 times, but I'm thinking they will refine the program now. Could have been 2 or 3 bot programs.Cangamblenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-65893958834185770362011-01-29T10:17:20.604-05:002011-01-29T10:17:20.604-05:00For a bit of perspective, McCoy just rode the favo...For a bit of perspective, McCoy just rode the favorite in a race at Cheltenham, and there was (roughly) $2k traded at 3/5 in running, and $100 at 1000/1, as well as many prices in between.<br /><br />It is true that the 1000/1 was traded later in the race than the one we were discussing yesterday, but it still underscores that such big prices in-running, even on favorites, are not uncommon.Tinkynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-51029613303844247482011-01-28T23:56:34.427-05:002011-01-28T23:56:34.427-05:00"He looked bad to me, thus him trading at off..."He looked bad to me, thus him trading at off odds at any point was surprising to me.:"<br /><br />Any favorite ridden by McCoy that is in contention would be respected by British punters.<br /><br />I do agree that he never looked comfortable, and I would not have been inclined to back him in any case. However, it is a remarkably dynamic market (in-running, that is), and you have to consider that many bettors are hedging and arbitraging.Tinkynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-46599984784642498652011-01-28T22:34:05.367-05:002011-01-28T22:34:05.367-05:00"Of course he traded at near his off odds whe..."Of course he traded at near his off odds when he was in contention;"<br /><br />He looked bad to me, thus him trading at off odds at any point was surprising to me.<br /><br />PTPPull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-82315788625370694922011-01-28T22:31:37.436-05:002011-01-28T22:31:37.436-05:00Yes, I did watch it. So if you are asking whether ...Yes, I did watch it. So if you are asking whether I would have laid him at anywhere near 1000/1, the answer is no. But it is not all surprising that some people did, as he certainly appeared to be beaten.<br /><br />If course he traded at near his off odds when he was in contention; that isn't surprising either. I'm sure that he also traded at well above his off odds before drifting to 999/1.<br /><br />The one aspect of the situation that was a bit surprising is that layers would have offered such huge odds on ANY horse ridden by Tony McCoy, as he is considered by most to be something of a deity.Tinkynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-79462279221755072512011-01-28T21:08:26.005-05:002011-01-28T21:08:26.005-05:00Did you watch it in running?
I got off the phone ...Did you watch it in running?<br /><br />I got off the phone earlier with a friend who watched. He mentioned for a lot of the race the horse traded nicely near his off odds, then ballooned.<br /><br />He layed a few others in running, but did not touch this one.<br /><br />PTPPull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-86534473270030857182011-01-28T21:04:44.427-05:002011-01-28T21:04:44.427-05:00Just to be clear regarding the horse FOLIE A DEUX,...Just to be clear regarding the horse FOLIE A DEUX, there was $225 traded in running on Betfair at 999-1, while many thousands (if not tens of thousands) were bet at various other prices along the way. Betting in running is very popular with Befair players as it offers opportunities to hedge and arbitrage. In a situation such as the one you highlighted, there is even more money than usual traded in running, as those who initially backed the favorite scramble to hedge, while others take shots at rapidly increasing odds.<br /><br />The way that the horse in question seemed to be struggling makes it entirely unsurprising that the odds ballooned as they apparently did, even though he was favored.<br /><br />While 1000/1 does seem excessive (from a laying perspective), and especially in jump racing where the complexion of races can change radically from hurdle to hurdle, it is exceedingly rare to see a horse struggle like that fairly late in a race, then come on to win.Tinkynoreply@blogger.com