tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post3871945121033390594..comments2024-02-01T00:37:24.768-05:00Comments on PTP: LuckPull the Pockethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-52442565331966028752013-01-17T06:04:22.604-05:002013-01-17T06:04:22.604-05:00Love the picture!
Hmmm... I can understand that p...Love the picture!<br /><br />Hmmm... I can understand that people shouldn't be ruled by luck and it's good to stick at something when you know you're on a good thing, despite the current results...<br /><br />But when it comes to gambling, if any loss cannot be afforded, I think it shouldn't be done - luck or no!Christinehttp://www.facebook.com/EquusEducationnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-21784454598228107162013-01-16T01:19:48.977-05:002013-01-16T01:19:48.977-05:00This is one of the rare cases in which I don't...This is one of the rare cases in which I don't agree with your conclusion. While I do agree with your basic premise, that “bad beats” are likely to eventually even out over time, I would argue that you may be missing the bigger picture. <br /><br />The key to successful gambling is money management, and, to my mind, <i>the</i> most nuanced aspect of money management is an ability so uncommon that few <i>successful</i> gamblers are aware of it, let alone able to master it.<br /><br />The skill to which I refer is the ability to identify both hot and cold streaks during their early stages, and adjust accordingly. This ability, when refined, can have a huge impact on the bottom-line.<br /><br />The connection to your post is that when you speak of "luck", you do so in a dry, academic manner. That is understandable, but it fails to take into account that in horse racing, <i>every</i> participant (e.g. owners, trainers, riders, horseplayers, etc.) experiences streaks. And those streaks, while perhaps reasonably viewed as random from a statistical standpoint, can in fact be recognized and taken advantage of , irrespective of whether one views them as being related to luck.<br /><br />In other words, convincing horseplayers that what they may consider to be bad luck is likely to even out on long-term statistical basis, and that they would be wise to act as your professional friend did during his 56 race cold streak, could well be a mistake in the context of what I have outlined above.<br /><br />I am, in summary, suggesting that there actually is an intelligent and rational basis on which horseplayers might change their betting responses based on what is widely perceived to be “luck”.Tinkynoreply@blogger.com