Pull the Pocket

Slot Purses Rise, Imagination Falls

2012-01-27T09:09:00.003-05:00

I was on a call this week and the Horseplayers Association's Bob Dwyer mentioned that the slots issue in Illinois is "not really a customer issue" on the positive side because slots don't do much at all from a customers' perspective.

Not only that - which I think we'll all agree with - even sometimes for the business side it makes one scratch their noggin.

Never is that more telling than yesterday's news about Georgian Downs increasing the slots-fuelled purse of the Upper Canada Cup by $100,000, to a whopping $600,000.

The Upper Canada Cup is a sire stakes race, in a province full of sires stakes races. In Godin-speak it's not a purple cow, it's not even a cow. Last year, on a card that gave out about $800,000 in purses, the handle was $225,000. The customers yawned. They yawned so much that apparently it's a good idea to hike the purse even more.

Where is the imagination?

We all know if the purse for the Cup was $200,000 you'd get exactly the same horses in the race. It's not like they're going to take the week off and race at Western Fair for $10,000 in a nw100k OSS life. The handle wouldn't be much different either.

What could you do with the other $400,000?

How about partnering with the OSS for a 4YO series to encourage horse owners to race their horses at 4, i.e. juicing up the Masters Series?

What about changing they way things are done, like Greg on twitter pointed out, so you can up the Confederation Cup purse to a million?

What about a successive weekend series of some sort, with $100,000 of it into marketing the event to cottage country? Create the Little Brown Jug of the north?

I am sure, with some thought, consultation and a will, we could do something worthwhile and exciting. For goodness sakes, it's $600,000.

Instead, we have another $100,000 added for an OSS race that will be lucky to generate $225,000 of handle, and probably $15,000 of revenue for the racetrack when deductions are taken out.

Several years ago in Louisiana, one of the track guys was speaking to a horseman who was asking for slots money to fuel $2,000 claimers. The track dude said 'no one bets them. Why don't I, each week just show up at the track and give everyone with a $2,000 claimer a check not to race.'

I agree with that gentleman. If we're going to dole out slot money, just for the sake of doling out slot money, give it away. It's cheaper.

Billy Davis Isn't Afraid of Social Media

2012-01-26T12:59:00.001-05:00

Since the beginning of time some customers have believed that the game is not on the level. "The participants want to cash a bet, there's reason to be skeptical of any driver, jock, trainer or vet". You know the drill.

Someone wants to change that, in his own small way. Driver Billy Davis, who's no slouch with over 400 wins last season, is one of the more refreshing, transparent and honest folks on twitter you'll ever see from racing. He'll tell his followers what horse's he likes today, what they did last time, and even what his strategy might be.

Here's a snip from yesterday via Twitter:

Racing at Flamboro this afternoon. 10 drives

In the 5th race I'm on St Lads Glamourgirl(3-1). This filly Is very green, she won last week in the front, I'd like to race her from behind

Hoosier King (3-1) in the 6th, was 2nd last week and surprised me on how much gate speed he has,I have the rail today,expect me on the front

In the 9th race Maes Rustler(2-1) has the 8 hole today which will make it tough, but he is really fast at the start, giddy up

It's what this business needs more of from our participants. I predict we'll see more and more people like Billy doing his or her thing on the micro-blogger and elsewhere.

As the Data Turns

2012-01-24T13:02:00.002-05:00

Do you want to be a major league sport? Perhaps it's time to open that Al Gorian "lock box" we have on our data.

Wolfram Alpha, a possible google competitor, is called a "computational knowledge engine", and the queries are top notch. In Search Engine Land yesterday, it was shown how free NFL statistics help fans and searchers learn more.

I am a long time admirer of Wolfram|Alpha and I’m happy to report that my admiration continues to grow, as you can now access NFL (National Football League) statistics using Wolfram|Alpha.

Here's the query for "Tom Brady versus Joe Flacco passing yards". In the words of CDP track announcer Vance Cameron, "Boom, just like that."

Now, let's check the results for "Triple Crown Winners" via a query here.

Ugh.

This afternoon on twitter, o_crunk noticed Tennis is getting its act together too.

Tennis Australia has exposed match analytics for the Australian Open to the public for the first time, allowing onlookers to dig into the same statistics made available to coaches, players and sports journalists. Served from IBM's US-based private cloud, the updated SlamTracker web application pulls together 39 million points of data collated from all four Grand Slam tournaments over the past seven years to provide insights into a player's style of play and progress.

I remember in about 1982 when my cousin, a sports bettor, needed to know the score for the Falcons-Dallas game at Fulton County, because he bet on it. He called information, got the phone number of the stadium, and called. A nice sounding southern woman said "oh, it's 21-13 for us, honey". It seems racing is still a lot closer to the 1982 NFL, than it is to 2012 tennis or football.

Gural's Tough Talk on Rule Breakers

2012-01-23T11:35:00.001-05:00

Jeff Gural at the SBOA banquet in Toronto:

Some individuals will always be one step ahead of any testing procedures,” he said,” but once a couple of people are taken away in handcuffs, that will be a big deterrent.” Gural emphasized that he’s prepared to use his newly-forged relationship with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s office to make prosecution for illegal drug use in racing a stern reality.

There's always whispers on backstretches about the use of synthetic painkillers, blood builders and the like which are of course, illegal and dangerous. When caught with something undetectable, the suspensions are just that - time off - and there are rarely any other repercussions. If Gural has his way, "time off" will have a whole new meaning.

Read the full story here.

Slot Cuts on the Table in Ontario

2012-01-22T18:32:00.001-05:00

It's not like we weren't warned.

Today in a special report in the Toronto Star, it was announced that the provincial (defacto) austerity czar, economist Don Drummond, has put slots at racetracks "on the table".

[He] recommends that Ontarians play slots at “alternative sites” to racetracks so they won’t have to hike out of town to play.

Ontario, the last decade, has been Europe-lite. The government has raised taxes, while spending like drunken sailors, racking up tremendous debt. Last month, Moody's put the province on credit watch.

Someone has to pay the piper, and where will the government go? Taking a bigger slice from racetracks and horsemen seems to be the logical first place. We'll see if this trail balloon survives.

In fiscal 2011, about $340 million went to purses and tracks, according to the OLG Annual Report.

Non-Handicapping Handicapping

2012-01-22T10:03:00.001-05:00

Over the years what I've found is that the principles of being a good handicapper (and money-manager) in horse racing, overlap with many other disciplines.

Today in Harness Racing Update, one of the books on this list was used as an illustration with regards to how so, so many participants and gamblers view supertrainers. If you'd like to read that story, or sign up for Bill Finley's internet magazine, for free, you can here.

Here's a short list of books I have read that have made me better at betting, decision making on play/pass, odds board makeup, and understanding horse racing, in general.

1. Blink, by Malcolm Gladwell - Although on the surface this book is about "gut feel" it truly isn't. There are dozens of examples and illustrations in it, that hit home for us as handicappers. It reads like a magazine piece, as well, and you can finish it in one or two sittings.

2. Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely - Behavioral economics is the rage of late, and the author writes the Freakonomoics of that genre. Why do we make the decisions we do? What's our motive? Are we rational? Although several chapters of the book were more for marketers, there were plenty of gems for handicappers.

3. The Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith - A stock trading book which tells the tale of taking newbies and turning them into successful traders. A number of the rules - the rights and the wrongs - completely parallel what we do as handicappers who have to manage a bankroll and read odds boards.

4. Supercrunchers by Ian Ayres - I guarantee there are thousands of handicappers heading to the races today with three hot "angle bets". I also guarantee that a majority of them are betting angles that may have worked at one time, but are costing them money now. This book explains how computers and data are shaping the way we make proper decisions.

5. Gambling Wizards by Richard Munchkin - How can you get that list of experts in one book and not learn anything? It includes an excellent interview with the late Alan Woods.

Those are a few of mine. Have you read any books outside horse handicapping that have helped you become a better player?

An Outstanding Racing Documentary

2012-01-20T09:15:00.001-05:00

Horse racing has many stories to tell, and when they are told well they can make excellent motion pictures. Phar Lap, Seabiscuit and The Killing are but three examples. I have always believed that we tell the best stories in documentary format, however, because what we do each day, whether we bet, groom, shoe, train, drive or ride, is very interesting.

One such film, "Exhibition Drive", examines 9 days at Charlottetown for last years Gold Cup and Saucer. As you most know, the event is very unique - something we don't see in racing pretty much anywhere - and to have virtually an entire town and province stoked for one event (for the modest purse of $60,000) is fascinating. That it's in such an out of the way place, it even makes it more intriguing.

The filmmakers touched on a lot that I've seen from visiting: The horses and the people who care for them. The event, the parade, the two century history of racing on the Island. But it went beyond that. It captured the scenery, the race calls, the races themselves and the characters from all walks of life who play a part in the event; right down to the infamous folks who charge $3 to park in their front lawns, or the children climbing on rooftops for a glimpse of the race.

In addition, the narrative focused on the way of life and the horse in that part of the world - where people are happy for you when you win, and no one is worried about getting rich, or going broke from being with horses.

They'd say "How can one be considered broke if you are racing a horse?"

It was very well done. It's an event the world should see.

If you are a racing fan and love horses - thoroughbred or harness, it doesn't matter - it's worth the one hour running time.

Exhibition Drive from Jeremy Larter on Vimeo.

Let's Do Some Lobbying & Save Horse Racing!

2012-01-19T09:26:00.002-05:00

Horse racing has lost its way. Sure we have slots, but slots are only a band-aid. We need more to save horse racing, and I have a solution. This is big.

The Presidential elections are upon us, and this fall, the US will be voting in a new dude, or sticking with the old dude. What happens in Washington is pretty interesting. Generally, when you look at who gives cash to whom, the decisions made at the top level tends to fall right into line. If you want to run the World Bank, make sure your school is number three on the list. If you want to stop the Internet Piracy Act, make sure you're an Internet company that's at least in the top ten.

It doesn't really matter if you're business is poor, your product sucks, or even if it doesn't make any sense. The Solyndra thing was probably poo-pooed as unrealistic by a seventh grade science fair winner in Duluth, Minnesota. It still got some nice cash.

It's time for horse racing to join the fray. Enough is enough. We need to buy some power.

My plan is simple: Let's take 3% out of purses, which is about $30 million, and sign it all over to Mitt Romney. Why him? Well, horse owners tend to be loaded, so let's go with the capitalist. He also doesn't take cash from every Tom, Dick and Harry, so we're a nice change for him. Why answer only to bankers when he can answer to us? Let's forget for a moment he drove across Michigan with a dog on the roof of his car; he gets the cash.

That $30 million vaults us up the donor list - right to the top.

Currently if I give Mitt Romney a call I will get dead air.

"Hi, this is Pull the Pocket calling for Mitt"

"Who"

"Pull the Pocket, I have a horse racing blog"

"Bzzzzzzz"

Now, after 30 cool million has been deposited in his account, it's different.

"Hi, this is Pull the Pocket calling for Mitt"

"Who?"

"Pull the Pocket, I have a horse racing blog"

"Mumble, mumble..... horse racing..... mumble......"

"Hi, this is Mitt Romney, what can I do for you Mr. Pocket?"

Bingo!

That's for just me. Just think if someone important calls, like Mike Battaglia.

Here are a few things we'll see after we sign this check.

New legislation mysteriously pops up that demands Beyer Speed Figures are to be printed on Captain Crunch cereal boxes.
The winner of the National Handicapping Championship will get invited to the White House and give handicapping tips to Bono.
Witholding tax on winnings? Poof! What withholding tax?
Quickly, and with little fanfare, a little something will be added to a Farm Bill, whereby horse owners can deduct 300% of their losses off their taxes. Where am I going, Disneyworld? No way baby - the Keeneland Sale, right before I go to Harrisburg.
The new White House twin cats will be named "Sunday" and "Silence"
Rapid Redux will be invited to the White House for a special Medal of Honor.
If someone at NYRA screws up, and the New York State Wagering Board wants to get them fired for it, they'll get a little phone call from our new friend Mitt.
There are now four people invited to the gaming summit on Capitol Hill: Steve Wynn and Donald Trump, as usual, with their new pals Mark & Nancy from Mountaineer.
Retired racehorse pony rides at Camp David!
New contract for air traffic control will be awarded to Trakus.
There's a new entry on Andy's California email blast list: Mitt@President.com.
Instead of filibustering, the Congress will have to partake in a big, kick-ass handicapping contest.
Tax breaks for new tech workers! NYRA, for free, can hire someone to finally type in scratches and changes into Equibase on time.
Frank Stronach will become an honorary American.
Mitt writes all internal cabinet memos in caps, paying respect to his new pal JERRY JAM
The Eclipse and Dan Patch Awards will be televised on CSPAN.
Derby Day will become a national holiday. Drinking laws suspended so everyone over 16 can drink Mint Juleps. For Little Brown Jug day, every hour is happy hour.
The First Family will all possess signed stuffed dolls of Kegasus that they proudly display for visiting dignitaries.
Bob Evans will no longer be considered only a restaurant

As you can see the possibilities are endless.

And it's all for the low price of $30 million, or 3% of purses.

Let's save horse racing! Who's with me?

A Shot of Pop Culture

2012-01-18T09:12:00.000-05:00

If you read virtually any book or white paper on marketing that studies brand change, or re-branding, it's often said the hardest brands to change are the ones who have something negative seeded in the minds of the general public.

Kate Hunter posted this pic from the Derby Wars iPhone horse racing game this morning on twitter.

Yes, just go behind the barn door Mr. or Mrs. iPhone user, take that little syringe, and light 'em up for the race!

Wow.

Other Twitter notes-

Frank Stronach joined Twitter. There's a fascinating conversation going on Twitter about lobbying for an Eclipse Award via the medium (some think people like Graham Motion got a leg up this year with Animal Kingdom because he is so well-liked on Twitter). Well, I wonder if Frank is lobbying for Exec of the Year?! As you know I am not a Frank basher. Not only do I believe it's not warranted for the most part, it's also the easiest pass into horse racing hipsterism. I hope people treat him well on the micro-blogger. I am sure he'll have some interesting things to say. I am disappointed he didn't use the Frank's Energy Drink picture as his avatar, though.

(alert! The plot thickens. Frank has shut down his twitter account, according to TBreport).

Further, Jeannine Edwards is wonderfully authentic on twitter. She got caught Tebowing at the Eclipse Awards. You can follow her here.

Have a great day folks.

Hambo Changes & Other Notes

2012-01-17T16:56:00.000-05:00

It was announced today that the Hambletonian has changed formats, and the change is quite interesting:

"We think returning to heats will be exciting for the fans, particularly those onsite at The New Meadowlands facility on a day that is always the sport’s greatest showcase.”
In 2014 a $400,000 Hambletonian Maturity for eligible four-year-old trotters will be implemented, in keeping with the effort to provide incentives races for owners who choose to race their horses after their sophomore year. The Maturity will be raced as a single dash at a mile and an eighth

It looks like we are back to our roots - harness heat racing - and we have a slight Europeanization of the sport. Big fields (up to 13 can race in the Hambo and 16 in the Maturity) and a push to seed purses for older horses is something rarely pushed in North America.

Chris Christie signs a sports betting bill.

I opened up Harness Racing Update on Sunday and saw a full page color ad from Valor Racing. Barry Irwin's partnership owned Derby winner Animal Kingdom. The benefits of owning harness horses are huge when we compare them to the thoroughbreds - we can race 30 times a year, purses are good, yearling prices lower. Why don't we see an ad in thoroughbred mags from our sport?

Standardbredgal found some excellent harness racing memorabilia and she wrote about it in a cool blog post.

Why do we hear exchange wagering is too complex for our fans to understand, so don't expect much? Matt Drudge ran this link today to the Intrade board for the US election. The general public gets it just fine. We don't need focus groups to ask what existing customers want, we need to expand our base. BTW, Romney is juicy odds for the November elections, in my opinion. I think the US folks opt for a CEO this time, rather than a visionary with little biz experience. I'm going long. But I'm rarely right on these things :)

There was a Hollywood Heyden sighting at harnessracing.com.

Ray Paulick is doing a great job with the horse slaughter situation in Pennsylvania. Well done.

It was reported that Jerry Yang left Yahoo! just this minute, and the stock popped. I wonder what racing would be if it were a stock. Would our stock pop if the folks who control California racing handed the reins over to someone new?

The Meadowlands is going back on a couple of things with their wagering menu. The $1 supers are gone, and a couple of pick 3's have been added. Short term it's probably a good move. Long term I don't think getting rid of the dollar supers will help much. They provide the customer with choice.

Very few surprises in the US Eclipse voting last evening.

Have a great evening everyone.

The Whales & Takeout

2012-01-14T10:33:00.002-05:00

Tom LaMarra wrote a terrific piece in the Bloodhorse on high volume bettors. This business is slowly learning about takeout, and its machinations.

Interesting statistics came out of the forum. Roughly $2 billion a year, or just less than 20% of total pari-mutuel handle, is said to come from high-volume shops. One of them—Elite Turf Club, which has only 11 customers—accounts for 10% of handle nationwide each year.

These shops work as a low margin-high volume business. In effect, they work like online poker does. With razor thin margins they are able to lower the takeout for their customers. With low takeout, betting handle explodes.The 20% number above represents only these shops. When we factor in a dozen or so ADW's with patrons who wager good money at lower rake, I would estimate the total handle to be somewhere around 40% or more.

The high-volume service operators didn’t reveal rebate numbers, but they sought to dispel a common belief in the industry that their players win “straight up,” or without the discount. Terry of RGS, which has about 90 customers, said that in 2011 they lost about 6% when rebates aren’t factored into the equation.

What we have above is our long-time contention on this blog, and what has been put forth by places like HANA: Lower takeout makes people believe they have a shot to win. When you think you can beat a game, you work at it, you study it, and you patronize it each day. It's not dissimilar to a college kid locked down in his room for three hours a day to play online poker. He does it because he thinks he can make money.

It's been disconcerting to chat at conferences or read the industry trade press where some respond over and over again "takeout doesn't matter". Of course it matters. These players are betting 3.0B to $4.0 billion a year, solely because they can get low takeout.

The key is where we go now with the above, and, in my opinion, we have two choices:

1) We expand the rebate base. We bring more people into the tent like this bettor I have talked about at conferences:

I was using pinnacle offshore until the debacle. Because of the rebate I found a way to make place bets profitable. I wound up with a 3.2% loss, but a rebate of 7%. It actually was a rebate of 6.2% as they did not give a rebate on 2.20 horses.

Now the kicker is, I went from betting about 30k to 50k to 1.3 million that year.It made the churn factor possible. If takeout is lowered it may have the same affect. I now have changed my play where place betting is profitable, but it is so small that I have stopped. I would definitely go back if takeout is lowered significantly.

or 2) We lower rakes across the board. The whales keep betting, because their needle does not move, but we expand, through cultivation, a new narrative that horse racing is a game that can be beat.

Right now it appears we won't be trying either option. The tracks want to see $1M bet before you get a rebate. They're using chicken or egg economics. The players who are betting $30k a year might be million dollar players (like the quote above) so there needs to be a plan to cultivate them. But the tracks have not been on board this train - it's left to micro ADW's for the most part.

We're clearly not getting the second option either. Places like California have raised takeout "to make more money". That strategy has been tried for sixty or more years and our handle has been decimated. All it tends to do (unless they raise their signal fee too high) is to increase a rebate to a few people, and we simply tread water.

Sooner or later, just as we've preached about with lower takeout through rebate that you are seeing today, it will come. One of those two roads must be taken. It might take five more years, but trust me, it will come.

Saturday note: A Slots track that puts their cash into more than purses can gain an edge, and Western Fair is proving it. It was looked at today in HRU (pdf).

Have a good Saturday everyone.

A Little More on the Harness Triple Crown

2012-01-12T10:28:00.000-05:00

Last week in HRU (pdf) we looked at the Harness Triple Crown and how it does not seem very effective in bringing in revenues, new fans, or buzz. The argument put forth was that the new Triple Crown should be the North America Cup, Meadowlands Pace and Little Brown Jug.

I've had a few comments and questions about it, from Kate (a former USTA employee) and others.

First let's look at the positives.

Buzz - With a triple crown, we gain some buzz, and news mentions for the three events could go up by 100% or more, if we have a good story to tell.
Ability to grow a new brand, built for this century - We have a lot of tradition in harness and that's preserved. We can tweak this new triple crown to fit a new market, with some new marketing.
Immediate ROI - If the three tracks chosen create and implement a marketing plan - say by pitching in $250,000 for the three races - we will get immediate ROI. If, for example, the three race cards have handles go up by only a modest $1M through this marketing program, at 25% takeouts, we get $250,000 back in year one.
Marketing ideas and angles can grow with a three race sequence - How about giving 10 people a "horse" to own through the series on Cup night and whomever wins gets a free trip to the next race? If the horse wins the Triple Crown the fan gets a bonus? How about letting the fan visit the colt at his home and document the visit for TV coverage? How about a "Let it Ride Parlay" where ten people get to bet $100 on each NA Cup starter, and the winnings are rebet at the M? And then rebet again at the Jug? The possibilities with a three race, linked series are virtually endless.

Now, let's look at the cons, and they mainly lie with the Jug.

Kate wrote "There is a tremendous amount of prestige in winning the Thoroughbred Triple Crown. That alone provides incentive for trainers to participate...it is the pinnacle of achievement for them and what they dream about, much like a young hockey player dreams of winning the Stanley Cup. The harness racing Crowns don't have that, and I'm not sure how you create that synthetically [without a bonus, and who is going to pay a bonus]"
Jug specific concerns - the Little Brown Jug can be a crapshoot with post positions making a huge difference, and racing and winning two races in one day are avoided by some horsemen (it can take a lot out of a horse).
Getting everyone on the same page

I agree with those concerns.

As for the prestige question, and the fact that fewer and fewer horsemen are entering the Jug, we can try and change the Jug, and the funding system.

We can ask horsemen and horse owners what they want to make the event great again, and would they be willing to help?

Do they want an elim the week before? Do we want to change the Jug final to a points based Triple Crown system?

Can we find a new way to fund a bonus?

Can we, at stakes payments time ask for an extra $X for a Triple Crown bonus? Can we add a bonus from a small fee from pacing horses that are foaled each year? Can we bring corporate sponsors in? The money all goes into a pot for a Triple Crown winner. If we don't have a Triple Crown winner in year one, the money is collected again the following year, but last year's money carries over. If it carries over for five or ten years without a Triple Crown winner, we have a jackpot, just like a pick 6 jackpot.

Again, it seems workable.

As for the crapshoot of the Jug angle, it is what it is. We can choose another race, or work with what we have. If the series did get bigger and we had TV time, a big crowd like the Jug has might outweigh the crapshoot post positions angle.

As for working together to do something, yes, what else is new. We have an issue in racing when it comes to working together. But maybe this is a start.

Thanks to Kate and others for sharing their thoughts.

Have a nice day everyone.

Common Sense, Timely Decision Making & A Culture of Excellence

2012-01-10T23:55:00.000-05:00

This weekend the NFL playoffs continue. So far a couple of the games were exciting and this weekend the tilts look have more potential for the thrills fans are used to from the NFL.

But there is a controversy.

Apparently for last weekend's game against the Steelers, Coach Fox of the Broncos started three players that were not on the roster. The NFL was not notified, the fans didn't know and Las Vegas didn't know. They just fielded three players that no one knew about, and they won.

......... No, it didn't happen. It could never happen. The NFL would never let it happen.

In racing last month, a horse raced as a first time gelding, and won, paying $56. That's fair enough, these things happen, as gelding a horse can change his attitude and make him race better.

But no one told anyone. The trainer didn't tell the program sellers, the track, the commission, the fans - no one in power to report it properly.

It supposedly has happened 50 some-odd times since 2007. There's been a few meetings now about this in California and it appears to be quite a difficult question to answer.

How hard is this? How could it happen 50 or more times before someone makes a common sense decision that a horse can't run that day? How has this practice gone on for so long?

We have no culture of excellence in racing, because we tend to not care what the end user (the fans) go through. The trainers train, and reporting something like this seems cumbersome, or not needed. The commissions are herding cats, and appear not to think it much of an issue, too.

It's the culture of racing that's the problem, and it always has been.

The NFL has no such issue. They would never allow something similar to happen, and if it did, heads would likely roll. It certainly wouldn't happen more than one time, let alone more than fifty times. It would not take committee's and emails and meetings to figure out a solution either.

The NFL expects and demands excellence from their participants, executives, and Board's of Governors. It's built right into their culture.

Racing's culture needs changing; from one of mediocrity and scraping by, to one of excellence.

Note: A group of horseplayers (while asking other horseplayers what they'd do) sent the following to the CHRB on this issue:

Proposed Rules Change for Failure to Report Horse as Gelded

Our position on how best to handle horses that have been gelded since the most recent start but not reported as gelded by the horse’s human connections on race day is as follows:

The wagering public must be notified of horses that have been gelded since the most recent start. Such notification must take place no later than 30 minutes prior to post time for the first race of the day.

In the event the wagering public cannot be notified by 30 minutes to post time for race one: Horses where failure to report has occurred will be ordered scratched by the stewards.

Mike, we believe the above proposed rules change is preferable from a revenue generating standpoint compared to the alternative of ordering such horses to run for purse money only. Here’s why:

When a horse is ordered scratched by the stewards for failure to report the track loses that horse as a betting interest. The track also loses that horse as a betting interest when ordered to run for purse money only.

There is a key difference between the two alternatives. When a horse runs for purse money only, the horse will likely be unable to race again for several weeks. However, when a horse is ordered scratched for failure to report, it becomes probable that the horse’s human connections will find another race for that horse within a few days. Ordering such horses scratched rather than the alternative of allowing such horses to run for purse money only results in a greater number of betting interests (starters) per meet.

Mike, if the above proposed rules change is adopted we are ok with reducing the fine or doing away with it entirely. (Based on the meeting package from the last CHRB Meeting, the current $1,000.00 fine does not appear to have been effective as a deterrent.) We are not seeking to punish horsemen for failure to report. We understand that mistakes can and do happen.

The rules change we are proposing is designed to: 1. Protect the wagering public from instances of failure to report. 2. Enable the CHRB to demonstrate leadership to the wagering public (on a national level) that it is working to improve the integrity of the game. 3. Stop the current practice of rewarding those who fail to report with purse money. 4. Offer an alternative to running for purse money only that does not punish tracks economically. (Under our proposal, tracks have a chance to get horses ordered scratched due to failure to report back into a race ASAP.)

Thanks in advance for any consideration you might be able to give the above proposed rules change.

Sincerely,

Jeff Platt

President, HANA (The Horseplayers Association of North America)

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

2012-01-09T09:29:00.001-05:00

Happy Monday everyone!

There was quite a bit of chatter last evening on Twitter about the Jonathan Roberts 90 day suspension for "lack of effort" with his drive at Dover Downs. I have watched the race on youtube a half dozen times and I can't see any problem with that ruling. Greg on twitter informs us that the horse stayed eligible to a lower class by not winning that race. The next time he suited up for battle he was an easy wire to wire winner - with Mr. Roberts in the bike.

Hat tip to Racingbeard.com (a new harness aggregator) for that story.

Writing about a new Triple Crown on HRU this weekend (pdf) it dawned on me how often I heard you (and me) the fan speak of it over the years. Remember the "unofficial" Canadian Triple Crown? The Queen City (now NA Cup), the Prix d'ete at Blue Bonnets, and the Confederation Cup at Flammy. I am going to wrte more about it this week. Give the article a look if it's something you've thought about in harness racing.

Standardbred found left at Wal-Mart. No you can't make this stuff up.

Did anyone catch So Cal Thoroughbred Rescue's Caroline Betts on HRTV this weekend? Someone hire this woman to devise and run a new national horse retirement strategy please.

Yesterday was a fascinating example of why we like competitive sports. The Broncos-Steelers playoff game was entertaining and interesting and had more storylines than any novel I've read. Driving the storyline was, of course, Broncos QB Tim Tebow. On paper he seems to have little throwing talent, but somehow he throws for 316, rushes for 50 and is a fantasy players dream. Oh, and he helped his team win.

The striking part of it all are quotes like this:

Tebow said he "tried to go out there and play hard, play fast and be aggressive and trust my teammates and trust the line, trust the receivers and give them opportunities, and they make me look a lot better than I really am."

That, in itself, makes him stand out in the professional sports world - he's a Purple Cow. And every sport or business needs a Purple Cow.

We wrote an article on Tim Tebow and Zenyatta last month, looking at both phenomenons from a business perspective. It's here on page 8 if you hadn't seen it.

Enjoy the day everyone!

in 2012, Word Gets Around

2012-01-07T21:40:00.000-05:00

I found it interesting that I did not know the Meadowlands raised superfecta takeouts for this meet. I am usually on top of these things. However, people do know. Here's a post on a thoroughbred chat board.

“A brand is no longer what we tell the consumer it is – it is what consumers tell each other it is.” - Intuit's Scott Cook

Indeed it is.

I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt as they get on their feet (and because of their history of being more pro-player than any harness track out there), but many customers, I feel, are not so understanding.

Big M Opens & Some Funny Stuff by Davidowitz

2012-01-07T10:21:00.000-05:00

The Big M opened last evening with a pretty decent card. It was not a card like the old days (it's almost impossible now with two slot tracks nearby) but it was decent nonetheless.

Some notes:

The chatter about closing holes and pulling and moving was not just chatter. The drivers seemed to take this seriously. I am not overly concerned about tucks (I think a tuck encourages the outside horses to leave, rather than pulling back because they can't get a hole), but it was nice to see drivers move and not sit there.

Gural on the pre-game show - 'I'll look at criminally prosecuting trainers who use illegal drugs here' (paraphrasing).

The 15% superfecta takeout is now 20% and done without mentioning it anywhere I saw. Not a good way to gain buzz. I was completely unaware of this.

The 10 cent super pools, unsurprisingly, were much greater than the $1 pools. To build up those we're going to need more eyeballs from rebate players. From "Robin"

Apparently Rich Banca is one of those banned from the Meadowlands, as reported by Harness Racing Update.

Further in Harness Racing Update, Brian Sears commits to the M.

Card number two of the meet goes tonight.

Sometimes we read articles in racing with a humorous slant. I guess there is a "it's funny because it's true" angle in a lot of them that does resonate, because our business is pretty messed up. Steve Davidowitz did not disappoint at Grade One Racing.

Looking at some of his 2012 predictions we got these gems:

The NYRA finds out that it has been overcharging for hot dogs and beer by 18 percent due to “computer error” and a track official says they will try to hunt down as many who paid for them and give each .36 cents to compensate
A first time starter trained by Todd Pletcher wins a Saratoga maiden sprint in 1:09.33 flat and immediately is compared to Seattle Slew by the New York press corp
the California Horse Racing Board approves a new raise in the pari mutual takeout rate---to 28.33 percent for the Pick Six. While Jerry Jam'Gotcha' is busy trying to find his yellow crayon and fix a broken laptop, the CHRB explains: “The move will boost purses and bring more horses into our pick six races. After all,” he continues, “we have to compete with baseball which is starting up again.”

Enjoy your Saturday everyone!!

Thursday Notes

2012-01-05T11:58:00.002-05:00

The Meadowlands opens tomorrow and I went through the card. It's not too bad at all, although 'capping early meet cards - whether thoroughbred or harness - are generally difficult.

Alan reported a Gural article which spoke of several of the items complained about by you the harness bettor about the driving style at the M.

“We are meeting with the drivers and judges in hopes of going back in time to the driving style that used to exist here,” said Gural of his current agenda. “I heard many complaints from customers about the courtesy tucks” – drivers allowing other horses to settle in along the pylons rather than race on the outside – “and half-in, half-out tactics” – drivers who race just off the pylons to prevent other horses from making forward progress on the outside.

We can hope this meet is better than the last in this regard. We've always firmly believed that leadership and the customer-centric culture borne from that leadership is lacking in harness racing (in all racing really). This is showing some leadership and that should be applauded.

As we've noted before, Santa Anita should be showing some gains this season, because last season was abysmal with people completely turned off their product. With a 15% pick 5, takeout is down too. In 2010 opening day was down about 22%, so the 10% bump off that is still terrible in the big picture, but allows for some good spin. The racing press seems to rarely challenge our racing numbers, so I'd expect a critical look at their stats (and the numbers of all racetracks, for that matter) will not enter the discussion.

Woodbine's harness handles were up in 2011 buoyed mainly by US distribution.

The music industry wanted to get rid of disruptive technologies early in the 2000's because the margins and gross revenues on a boxed CD were much higher than single song downloads. But you can't stop progress - I am looking for a $900 52 inch flatscreen now, after growing up with a $900 27" tube in 1975. It usually takes awhile, but everything settles, if it's done right. In 2011, music sales are up, mainly because of digital downloads:

According to figures from Nielsen SoundScan, sales of physical CDs dropped six percent last year, but a 20 percent increase in the sales of digital album downloads to a record 103.1 million made up for the losses and then some.

We often hear about ADW's taking away from on-track handle. In the end they will probably end up saving horse racing. This century, technology has allowed for higher volumes and lower margins in virtually everything we do. It would not surprise me to see 90% of our handle coming from devices in 20 years.

Some of you are like me, and rarely pay attention to the yearly Awards in racing. I didn't even know there was a special Eclipse. If you want to know more about the US Thoroughbred Awards and how they came about, you can read about it at HRF here.

Have a nice Thursday everyone!

Racing Can Learn a Thing or Two from Rick Santorum

2012-01-04T11:53:00.002-05:00

Last evening, little known Republican candidate Rick Santorum - languishing at 4 or 5% in the polls - made a stunning run, almost topping flush-with-cash Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses.

His 25% share of the vote gives us (as marketers) a real lesson; one that I think racing should pay heed to.

He did what other businesses have done to grow this century in our compartmentalized, target marketing world - he targeted a niche, and expanded. By staking out ground with evangelicals, speaking their language, and adding a new narrative of addressing the need to expand the manufacturing job base (something neither party or any candidate has spoken about), he built a social conservative coalition. He didn't need or try to be everything to everyone, he just tried to be something to someone.

That coalition drove his vote, and he is now squarely on the national stage.

The other party tries to do this at times with their fringe candidates - sometimes you wonder if some democratic hopefuls sleep with a Marx-Engels dictionary to win primaries in left wing activist places like D.C. - but no one has been near as effective as Santorum. He proves it can be done.

Santorum didn't need a mass market to grow his brand; he just needed a slice of it.

Clearly we often hear racing needs that mass market. We need TV. We need to be on cereal boxes to compete with the "Dodgers and the Lakers". We need to be on ESPN, on billboards on the expressway.

I say phooey.

It is estimated (in Buzzmarketing by Mark Hughes) that it can take six years and $60 million to mass market brand or re-brand, with no guarantee of it being successful. We are not the Dodgers and the Lakers, nor are we Proctor and Gamble.

Racing needs to stop worrying about competing with industries, games, or products we have no shot to beat. We need to target a niche and expand.

As we wrote here in one of the most popular blog pieces (in terms of web-hits) we've written:

I think the time has come for a repositioning of racing. Marketing to the mass-market is a concept that should be shelved. I believe the NTRA and others should work on an industry wide marketing program that filters from the top, all the way down to each track and organization. It will have one simple message: Horse racing is a game ....... and you will have the time of your life playing it.

Racing needs to think less like Mitt Romney, and more like Rick Santorum.

In 2012, it works.

Notes:

The Meadowlands opens Friday with almost 200 entries. Is this sustainable? One can hope so. By eliminating some questionable trainers, and inviting everyone to come race and have a shot, it has to help handles. If you love harness racing, start handicapping and bet this meet.

I got a picture sent to me from Cape Breton Island, where a couple of the yearlings are being trained down. It's a different world out this way, where harness racing (and life) is slow. And it's quite beautiful.

From the Eclipse ballots I see, it seems the logical choice will win HOY in the US - Havre de Grace. Sometimes we really over-think things, or try and look contrarian, but not this time.

Claire Novak goes A to Z in racing in 2011.

Dk in Trot, on simo signals, marketing and more.

Rapid Redux goes for another win today.

Yonkers scraps 1 1/16th mile racing and goes back to a mile.

Just a note via email - the new wagering menu at the M includes some races with $1 minimum superfectas (something that larger bankrolled players love). I don't know if there is a carryover provision or not, but I would hope so, since early on some may carry and it could build some super good excitement race to race.

Enjoy your day everyone!

New Years Wishes for 2012

2011-12-31T23:25:00.001-05:00

With the New Year almost here I wanted to do something none of you have ever seen before.

This ground breaking idea that no one has ever thought of doing (I am very, very smart and forward thinking) is a "Wish List for 2012".

Get ready and fasten your seatbelts, because here we go........

I hope in 2012 I don't get any more hits on my blog from someone searching for "Chantal Sutherland Nude"

I hope in 2012 someone wins the NHC in Vegas, stands up on a chair and goes completely nuts like Howard Dean did in Iowa a few years ago.

I hope in 2012 I get a DQ that helps me cash a ticket.

I hope in 2012 all out of town harness drivers use a travel agent before the Breeders Crown.

I hope in 2012, NYRA takes some of that slot cash and invests $0.49 in a big red pen so they can mark any prospective takeout changes on a calendar.

I hope in 2012 I figure out an angle that no one else is on, for more than a week.

I hope in 2012 Tampa announcer Richard Grunder pronounces every horse correctly.

I hope in 2012 when the horse crosses the finish line in the Derby, we don't read an article with the headline "Is this the year for a triple crown winner?" for at least 48 hours.

I hope in 2012 Ron Pierce quits moose hunting (that one is on behalf of moose everywhere).

I hope in 2012 I get Jerry Jam emails with no colors or crazy fonts.

I hope in 2012 I hear more from Chickenhead.

I hope in 2012 I don't get any more hits on my blog from someone searching for "Chantal Sutherland Shirtless on Horse"

I hope in 2012 I'll run into the uber-classy Horseplayers Association VP Mike Maloney and he'll be in a bad mood after a bad beat, just so I'm sure he's human.

I hope in 2012 we see more from "Railbird".

I hope in 2012 Mountaineer announcer Peter Berry's catch phrase of "he put the cue in the rack" catches on, like everywhere.

I hope in 2012 Twitter's Sid Fernando has a good year.

I hope in 2012 we see a good handle meet at the Meadowlands.

I hope in 2012 we find a long term home for our five claimer.

I hope in 2012 if Charles Hayward pushes down an old lady and she falls in a puddle, there won't be a NYRA supporter on chat boards blaming the old lady.

I hope in 2012 the Daily Racing Form gets its horseplayer focused editorial groove back on.

I hope in 2012 Jason and Nick from Tioga get a raise.

I hope in 2012 Moira Fanning gets a raise.

To finish the trifecta of raises, I hope Mike from Balmoral gets one too.

I hope in 2012 someone finally gets hired to do some good for California racing.

I hope in 2012 Ken Warkentin uses the line "these two gladiators flash swords" again, when two horses are battling it out.

I hope in 2012 I will not have to write stories about a 14 year old horse passing away a week before his mandatory retirement.

I hope in 2012 Chris Christie is right and horse racing can stand on its own two hooves.

I hope in 2012 horseplayer Barry Meadow enjoys his retirement.

I hope in 2012 everyone that took a shot at a yearling gets at least one thing to smile about.

I hope in 2012 o_crunk gets more twitter followers.

I hope in 2012 Normf66 on twitter - World's Number One Harness Fan - finds some more obscure tracks and tells me about them.

I hope in 2012 Caroline from Socal Thoroughbred Rescue finds homes for all her horses, fills her barn with new ones, and finds homes for them, too.

I hope in 2012 I win an Ebay auction item from Socal Thoroughbred Rescue.

I hope in 2012 my horses are all healthy.

I hope in 2012 your horses are all healthy.

I hope in 2012 everyone has a healthy and happy year.

Best wishes and happy new year everyone.

PS: I gave out my Harness Awards for 2011 today in HRU, so give it a look if you're interested (pdf).

Racing Must be Pretty Complex eh?

2011-12-30T13:08:00.001-05:00

Today in the Saratogian, NYRA board member Charles Wait said:

Wait said he doesn’t believe anyone at NYRA should lose their job. "I don’t think so," he said. "It’s something for the (board’s) Audit Committee to review."

Asked if firings would follow a similar mistake at the bank — Adirondack Trust Co. — that he chairs, Wait said, "It’s not comparable. The racing laws are quite complex. We (NYRA) missed it and made a mistake. The first thing you do is apologize, which we’ve done."

That's pretty interesting, because I just had a look on Wikipedia about the US Banking System, then drilled down to the recently passed Dodd Frank Act . \With the latter and its gazillion sections, and 243 new rules, my head almost exploded. It's a wiki version of War and Peace.

It seems that "we have to lower takeout back to 25% in September 2010" is much easier to understand, but maybe that's just me.

o_crunk was somewhat less politically correct.

Enjoy your Friday folks!

PS: Steve Crist chimes in

NYRA Lowers Rake; Could Spur Handle Increases in New York

2011-12-27T20:05:00.001-05:00

Dana Byerly of Hello Race Fans looked into her winnings from exotics at NYRA tracks (which are eligible for a 1% rebate) not soon after the overcharge was announced.

She came up with the following:

$46 back might not sound like a whole lot of money, but it illustrates the power of that 1%, even for one person, with regards to handle bumps.

Dana clearly will not ask for a $46 check in the mail. If she does get it back, she'll do like we all do; she'll rebet it. When she does rebet, she will win a little money back more than likely, and perhaps churn it five times. If she does that, her handle has gone up by $230.

It's why we've always said takeout reductions do more than just churn - they make the game more fun, and a fun game is a game people want to play. Dana will have some fun with that money, because she will have $230 in free bets.

That's only "1%"

She isn't the only one, of course, as it was reported that $8.6 million was overcharged. If those people all bet it like Dana does (if they get a refund), handle will go up by $43,000,000. That's a lot of fun for a lot of people.

This is being illustrated pretty well in California, on the other side. Their handles have fallen since they raised the takeout last year, but not only because "X" number of horseplayers boycotted - although I am sure that made a difference. When you take 2% out of the players pocket, they have a lot less to rebet. The game is less fun, too, and nickel money lines for a baseball game start to look pretty good.

It's no secret that when slots come to racetracks, handle can still go in the dumper as witnessed in many jurisdictions. On-track handle is especially at risk because now on the way home from the track, gamblers who made a score in the last can lay $500 of tomorrow's racings bankroll in a slot machine.

For New York in 2012 this may not be the case.

Charles Hayward, NYRA CEO, announced today that the 2% takeout decrease to make up for this mess will not be only for 15 months, it will be permanent.

With a 2% reduction in takeout starting January 1st and a small bump in field size, NYRA may have a very good year in the handle department. If they expand it and spread some of this new found slots money to a 1% across the board reduction in churnable WPS or exacta pools, it could even be a great year.

Whatever happens, we do know that this season people like Dana won't have to wait 15 months to get back the money owed to her so she can rebet. She'll get it back when she hits her first grand slam, and she'll keep getting it back every exotic hit after that.

When You Work, Good Things Happen

2011-12-27T00:46:00.000-05:00

I had a flashback over Christmas to when I was 12 and my dad put my name in to work at a gold mine and city joint venture for the summer. It'll "be a good experience" I was told. Well, getting up at 5:45 in the morning and working my butt off for $3.25 an hour when all my friends were sleeping in and having fun was not a good experience, it sucked.

But in the end I must admit, I learned a lot picking up rocks, digging holes and cutting grass that summer.

I'm now glad I started working at a young age. When you work, you get better.

In harness racing, particularly in Ontario, fans for the last quarter century felt racetracks were not working to up the bet. This blog probably has fifty articles about the malaise and the board room driven "put a race on and people will come" attitude.

As we've noticed the last year or two, this attitude is changing. Nowhere is it any more apparent than at Western Fair. Greg Blanchard has been an excellent hire and its starting to pay off.

Today Greg tweeted this:

A 63% jump in handle. That's huge.

Good things come to racing (not overnight, but they do) when we work at it. Greg is one of those guys who's doing just that.

Congrats to them on a great day. Let's hope a year from now we see another 60% increase.

Kling Searches for Barry

2011-12-25T23:50:00.001-05:00

The NYRA story seems to be rolling on, with new articles in Horse Race Insider, ESPN and in the Troy Record, where we find this quote from Nick Kling:

I haven't spoken to Schwartz about the current mess NYRA has stepped into, but there is one thing about which I have no doubt. If Barry had remained NYRA's Chairman he would have had a calendar on his desk with a BIG RED X marked on the date Sept. 15, 2010. That is the day the takeout was supposed to drop to the statutory level one point lower than what NYRA had been deducting.

People like Barry Schwartz speak too plainly for 21st century politics. That, and his frustration with opposition to later attempts to lower the takeout even more contributed to his departure

I think he makes a strong point - racing needs leadership, bold leadership, from those willing to take a chance.

Jack Welch, the former GE CEO, once said that he does not want managers or executives who fear change. He wants managers and executives that fear what will happen if you don't change.

I can't help but think if Barry K. Schwartz was in a position of power in our sport over the last decade, we'd be in better shape.

My Email Christmas Wishes

2011-12-23T17:44:00.001-05:00

Merry Christmas

I thought I would share some of my email and twitter greetings from people in racing this Christmas, along with a few others. I hope they don't mind.

Here we go!!!

"Happy Holidays to all the folks in California racing who get along - all three of you" - Keith Brackpool

"Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. We're happy with our 2011 for two reasons - we had a 9% increase in handle, and that PTP dude stopped yelling at us for awhile when we dropped takeout" - Jamie Martin, Woodbine Entertainment

"I bought Dancer for $1.2 million yesterday. If he's not the favorite to hit the chimney first, I am gonna make him the favorite!" - Mike Repole

"HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE" - Jerry Jamgotchian

"I was going to write a nice Christmas story on this card, but I can only type 140 characters or less" - Sid Fernando

"What Sid said" - Ed DeRosa

"I'd like to wish seasons greetings to PTP for alerting me that Ray Paulick was impersonating me in various restaurants in the Lexington, Kentucky area. He's my new stunt double." - Kevin Bacon

"Even though I find PTP to be totally annoying, I want to wish him a Merry Christmas for getting me the Bacon gig" - Ray Paulick

"A Happy Holidays to all our customers. For those of you who hit exotics since last September, we'll be sending this message out about 8 million more times" - NYRA

"We wish you a Merry Christmas and sincerely hope the revision on withholding gets stalled for another decade" - The IRS to horseplayers

"I love Christmas! When I was at home last night I ran a regression and came up with a wonderfully festive econometric model!" - So Cal Thoroughbred Rescue head, and Economics prof Caroline Betts

"Chickenhead, chickenhead, chickenhead. I can't stop saying Chickenhead. Happy Holidays!" - Thoroughbred Times Frank Angst

"We'd like to give a Happy Holiday shout-out to the weatherman in New Jersey on Breeders Crown day" - Ron Pierce and Luc Ouellette

"We wish a happy holiday to everyone except those five guys on Twitter who noticed we were watching a football game" - Breeders Cup Stewards

"Merry Christmas and thanks for taking some of my money in 2011. You do realize you're only keeping it warm, don't you?" Slots to racing

"I'll be drunk dialing you Christmas greetings in a few hours after my date with the chick from the Calder Pick 5 commercials" - Kegasus

"For any Christmas messages, I refer all my fans to @notthetoddster ." Todd Pletcher

"I'm having a good Christmas season. My family likes me and I won the "Scapegoat of the Year Award" for horse racing. Life's good." - John Veitch

"We're sending this by email this year to some of you, instead of in-person, because we upped admission to the Christmas party and fewer people showed up. We're stumped why this happened and will be forming a committee in the New Year to look into it" - TOC

C'mon, you know I couldn't leave out the California takeout hike :)

It's times like this each year that I am appreciative of everything positive that horse racing offers me.

I want to thank everyone for reading and commenting on this blog, and a give a special thank you for taking things like the nonsense above with such good humor.

From my family to yours, have a very Merry Christmas.

-Dean

More NYRA Takeout Tidbits & Some Fat Quaddies

2011-12-22T14:35:00.001-05:00

Frank Angst reported a few more items today in the Thoroughbred Times on the NYRA situation.

A long-time player who a lot of you know, Joe Riddell was none too pleased:

Joe Riddell, who regularly wagers on NYRA tracks, said for the over-charging to last 15 months points to real problems with NYRA and the NYSRWB.“We, as an industry, have told our fans that we don’t care,” Riddell said.

There were a few other notes, mainly about fans and their reaction to the story on chat boards and social media. In particular, Frank looked at the Pace post by Rutgers who said he tried to contact both the state and NYRA. It's an interesting piece with some good reporting by Frank.

Further:

The social media aspect of this is something that certainly should not be overlooked. It's a different world now.

For the record, despite some arguable missteps with a tough story, if I had a track I would hire Dan Silver, NYRA's internet dude, in about a second. FWIW.

Thankfully there was a comedic element this afternoon (which is much needed as everyone surely doesn't like this story) and 0_crunk tweeted out the portion of the Angst story above that made me spit out my drink:

A poster on the paceadvantage.com fan site who goes my the moniker “chickenhead,”

Yes, the word "chickenhead" was used in our trade press. I have two unnamed yearlings, who knows, maybe I found a name?

Chicken has been quite a prolific poster on Pace over the years and he is very sharp. I think he's in a tech startup in the Valley or something. He's an interesting guy and one of those people who when he is against your side of an argument, you usually go back to see if you haven't made a mistake.

Update from Frank on twitter

Another dude who is usually good to listen to on betting issues is Scott Ferguson who runs sportsismadeforbetting, and has worked in the gambling industry overseas for some time now. I see he offered out (on twitter) a way for NYRA to help ease the pain of bettors not getting a fair shake - seeded pools.

This is interesting to me, and yes, it is the way the TAB's do it. In Australia they used to have a takeout ceiling (still do I think) whereby only about 16% can be taken out of the pools (versus our 22% if you are wondering). But, sometimes there would be more taken out than prescribed by law; for example, if too many people played 20% pick 6's instead of low takeout place pools. What they do then is seed pools and give the cash away.

One way is a Fat Quaddie, which I explained here way back in 2008.

Clearly a 0% rake bet like a Fat Quaddie is not doable here, but maybe they can come up with something.

Regardless, we've been asking New York to do more with their slots cash than just stuff it into purses like they did in Pennsylvania and Canada because when you ignore the demand side, there was no real handle growth. Maybe this will, in the long run, be a good thing for racing.

This is truly one of the more bizarre betting stories I have seen in quite some time.

Have a nice Thursday everyone.

NYRA Takeout Situation - The Plot Thickens

2011-12-22T02:15:00.001-05:00

There's one thing about social media, it's tough to hide.

This evening there is quite the discussion about NYRA being ordered to pay back bettors for not lowering the takeout in September of 2010. The initial narrative was that the provision in the clause was very complex, so giving them a pass might be in order, but it turns out (as I noted earlier) the section itself really wasn't.

Alan at LATG tonight:

"Section 32 above actually isn't all that complex. In fact, it's relatively straightforward"

and he quoted the section.

Alan also noted that The Thoroughbred Times had a story that talked about the sunset provision in it.

So, people seemed to know.

But here's where it gets really interesting. A frequent poster on Paceadvantage (I have read him for awhile on there and chatted back and forth with him several times), has been dogged on this issue for some time.

Tonight he posts:

"On January 8, 2011 I e-mailed the NYSRWB about NYRA’s takeout on some wagers being outside of the parameters of the law. I never received a response. "

"I also emailed NYRA in April, 2010 and July 2010 asking them about the takeout, but I did not receive a response. And in August 2010, I commented on Steven Crist’s blog about the “1% NYC OTB takeout increase sunseting” and NYRA takeout being outside the parameters of the NYS law. While he did not post my comment he did send me a e-mail acknowledging the sunset provision went in effect and that NYRA could ask for lower takeout if they wished. I do not know if he discussed it with anybody at NYRA but he does know Charles Hayward personally."

He posted a couple times in 2010 and early 2011 on Pace asking when the takeout will be reduced, as well. I remember reading both posts at the time he posted them (they're linked on that thread).

If bettors figured it out on a chat board and posted about it several times, it looks like we might put to bed the "it was too complex" theory. But if this poster above is telling the truth, and he seems to be credible in my opinion, not only did the bettors figure it out, but one of them emailed NYRA and the NYSRWB to tell them about it, as far back as spring 2010.

It appears this story is far from over.

Update via Frank Angst at the TT -

NYRA Takeout Center Stage - Mystery Solved

2011-12-21T19:49:00.002-05:00

Thar she blows.

It's always something that stuck in our craw, like in this blog piece : The New York 1% takeout hike to fix the NYCOTB system was still in effect when there were no NYCOTB's.

It made little sense to us, and we wondered why.

Even on chat boards like Paceadvantage when it happened, bettors knew the 1% hike was supposed to expire and be repealed in two years, citing the appropriate section of the statute (click to enlarge):

What happened? I assume we'll find out after they conduct an investigation, because today it was announced NYRA should have lowered takeout, but didn't.

They'll have to pay back all the money, plus (what I assume is) interest.

The state Racing & Wagering Board voted unanimously on Wednesday to admonish the New York Racing Association for overcharging bettors millions of dollars over the past 15 months.

The action happened at a board meeting after racing officials discovered NYRA overcharged by 1 percentage point the amount it kept from some "exotic" bets.

NYRA, which runs races for the state at the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga thoroughbred tracks, will be required to pay back bettors about $8.6 million, according to one state official, if it can track them down through racing accounts. It will also have to help clear up IRS issues with those who won exotic bets during the period. Further, NYRA will be required to pay a $50,000 contribution to a racing-related charity.

Anyhow, for those of you wondering how a two year takeout hike to pay for OTB's was still going on when there were no OTB's, you weren't the only one. The mystery, for now, is solved.

What the future holds, is, I assume, a whole other matter.

With a Private Racetrack, Life's a Little Different

2011-12-21T09:22:00.001-05:00

If you opened up Twitter when Rick Dutrow was reinstated with a stay and could race at New York tracks off his 10 year suspension, there was quite a bit of incredulity. Harness racing went through a similar situation at the Meadowlands a few years ago during the Ledford raid and subsequent suspension.

NYRA and the Meadowlands are/were considered public entities, and using things like private property rights are not in the arsenal.

With the announcement that Jeff Gural has been granted a 30 year lease at the Meadowlands, that is all about to change. He told Harness Racing Update in a detailed interview:

When asked if anyone who has applied to race at the Meadowlands would be rejected, Gural replied, “ I would think so.”

Woodbine Entertainment does similar, so arguably the two tracks stand as one. If someone gets a long suspension, I highly suspect you won't be seeing them race at the Meadowlands now if granted a stay.

Notes:

Several people had an influential year in harness racing this season. Here are six of them (pdf, page 4).

I haven't been playing California racing for well over a year now. I even hadn't been playing it before I announced my reasons why here. Interestingly, in that piece I surmised handles in the short-run would be fine, but they fell off a cliff, so I was completely wrong. They took a solid short-term hit in handles, and the long term (as with any takeout increase we've seen in racing) doesn't look bright either. They will be comparing handles this season to last seasons horrible numbers, so maybe the press releases this year will look better, though.

Harnessracing.com reports that the interest in some of the Meadowlands late closing programs are good. Let's hope they have a great meet.

The O'Brien voting came out and San Pail was the unanimous choice for older trotter of the year.

Have a great day everyone!

Off We Go on a Tuesday

2011-12-20T14:06:00.000-05:00

The 25th is almost here and not much is happening in racing, but I found a few stories relating to the spirit of the season that I thought I'd share.

Penelope over at the NTRA wrote a wonderful tome about finding a horse, claiming him, and giving him a nice spot to live. Great stuff.

West Point Thoroughbreds write about their horse retirement thoughts today too. Nice work.

One horse who will not be having his birthday in a couple of weeks (it would've been his 38th) is Gamblon Horton. He passed away this year at the home of our friend Keith Gamble. When I wrote this story last year on him, I had hoped he would make it one more year. From the piece, you could see Keith's pride in the old boy:

"He still does a half ass gallop when he gets excited and he is a little harder to feed now with few teeth left but I soak his hay cubes all day so they are like a thick soup and his grain I mix with apples, corn oil and hot water and turn it into a porridge. I keep my fingers crossed that Horton goes before Sam so he will always have a buddy in the field, because he likes company where Sam couldn't care less."

To read about Keith and his retired horses, you can here. We need more of the three farms and people like the above. We're all sorry for Keith's loss.

I got a ping about a takeout story regarding New York racing this morning via the New York Times:

"The only way to bring in more revenue to both government and racing," Crist said, "is to increase the parimutuel handle wagered by the public, whose bets provide every last nickel of funding for these industries."

His key proposal would lower the tax on bets in order to return more to the bettor, who would presumably promptly put it back into the system in new bets. When the parimutuel system began in New York in 1940, the takeout was 10 percent, with 90 percent returned to the bettor. The tax today ranges from 17 percent for straight bets to 25 percent for more exotic bets, and the state's six regional OTB corporations impose an additional surcharge of up to 6 percent on winning bets.

Don't get too excited; it's from 1993.

I got a note from a dog rescue Sunday that seven hunting dogs were found with no home (I assume they couldn't hunt and were discarded, but I am not sure) asking for help. I pinged the contact and asked if she needed some help fostering one or two for awhile. She said "they are all spoken for now!"

All I can say to that is "awesome!"

Gunner says "woof"

Speaking of the rescue, we fostered "Gunner" last fall for a couple of months while he was awaiting a new home (and I got a nice set of bruised ribs chasing him - those hurt). We found a nice family who would take him and help him work through some of his issues (this was his fifth home, and he's only three).

"This will be his last home" they told me.

It appears it will be. I am so happy for the little fella. He is truly a kind and gentle soul.

Greg at Western Fair has arranged TVG to cover races on Monday's it seems. Great work dude.

It looks like the Jersey situation is winding down, with some sort of deal. Like expected.

I got some nice feedback on the Zenyatta-Tebow piece in Harness Racing Update (pdf here, page 7). Thanks to everyone who shared thoughts.

This week we'll be looking at the Most Influential People in Harness Racing. I think it's out tomorrow. You can easily subcsribe for free to the paper if interested at the above link.

Tis the time of year where little things amaze me, and make me smile. We were heading to the cottage last weekend and we drove by a farm house on a side road decked out in lights like you wouldn't believe. It looked like an engineer planned it, and did the work (with plenty of help). Later on that weekend, I spoke to someone and mentioned it; I wondered who this festive person was. I was told he was an 85 year old farmer who's been doing it for well over a half century. Wonderful.

Happy Hanukkah folks!

Battle of the Ads - Low Juice Edition

2011-12-19T15:31:00.000-05:00

I don't think I am going out on a limb here by saying that horse racing sure is funky.

Check out these two ads.

The first one, from Hollywood Park, is sham-wowing the Players Pick 5 because of the low 14% takeout. It's from a state which hiked takeout 12 months ago, saying low takeout didn't matter, and bettors will keep coming for the entertainment.

They've supposedly got the best rake in the country, and perhaps we can get a deal on a ginsu knife, too.

Second up, the strippers at Calder. They say "hold it big boy".

They're at 12% takeout. That sounds good.

Anyhoo, it's great and all that tracks are promoting the low rake, and it can be argued the Players Pick 5 may have saved Cali racing's handle from completely impoding in 2011 (last time I checked it's off something like $220 million).

But these two commercials rank right up there on the strange scale.

In the end, Pocket gives the nod to Calder. Not because of the exotic dancers, but for the lower takeout.

Your Betting Beta Can Be a Killer

2011-12-17T10:58:00.000-05:00

There's a very interesting story today in the Wall Street Journal about wealth (and keeping it).

Lee Hausner, a California-based psychologist who works with the ultrarich, has one client she calls "The Phoenix," a real-estate developer and investor who borrowed and spent heavily. He has surged and crashed twice over the past decade, reaching a net worth of $400 million, losing it, then hitting $200 million and losing it again. "He's an impulsive risk-taker," she says. "He always lays everything on the line.

It's a story on "beta", or the volatility of our net worth. Risk takers have a hugely high beta and that is never going to go away, however, there are ways to stay in the game.

Some of the tips - for those types and we regular folks - about keeping our wealth are pretty common sense. We should look at what we spend and where we spend it, sock some away that's untouched, and monitor our bankrolls to ensure we are lowering our beta, not raising it.

This applies to us as bettors as well.

Ask any bettor who is playing with a large set bankroll, whether it be $10,000 or $100,000 - the swings (beta) can kill you. To make 40% of your bankroll in a given day is fine, but to lose it and more the next can drive you nuts - and sometimes put you on tilt.

Some folks can live with this and are good at it. They have a determination that they are winners and daily fluctuations are no big deal. They also don't have the mortgage or rent money in their betting bankroll. They concentrate on low hit rate, high potential bets. Some (because they truly can't handle the swings as well as others) even spread these hard. Most people aren't that good, or fortunate.

We've heard it all before, but it bears repeating because it's true. If you can't stand a high beta, stay away from the high beta bets. If you have a $2,000 bankroll and know this horse is a 5% bet in the win pool ($100 to win), you shouldn't be betting another $40 in exactas and $24 in supers. Those are high beta bankroll killers - the one's that drive you nuts and ruin your whole day when you get nosed out for $3k.

How often has the following been said at the track: "I loved the horse, he won, but I ended up losing money on the race". We chased the beta.

Bankroll preservation is key for us as players, and for the business, because we churn what we win.

For example, it is no secret Betfair is doing well. What they have done is taken a high beta industry (exotic wagering at huge rakes) and made it a lower beta one. If you put $5,000 in a 5% win takeout medium tomorrow, where all you do is bet to win, (with one or two easy set rules and some skill) you will probably have a bankroll in six months. That's why betfair's churn rate is 15 and racing's is around 4.

Online poker does this very well, too.

Low beta is bankroll preservation. Bankroll preservation is more fun for us as players. More fun for us as players is good for racing.

Depending on what kind of player you are, the next time you're going to "take a shot" with a huge exotic play, think of your beta and think what'll happen - not if you win, but if you lose. If the pain of that loss is too much for you to bear - bet $20 to win. You'll live to bet another race.

Friday's Here

2011-12-16T10:21:00.001-05:00

When I was in high school I never got suspended. It seems to be different nowadays, because I am pretty sure I did worse than these two high school kids who were suspended for Tebowing.

I hope they treat this Friday as a snow day. I would.

Off we go:

Let's imagine this for a second: You are an author who self-publishes and your new book has sold a few copies to friends and family, but gotten no major press. Suddenly Oprah calls and wants you for an interview. It turns out she loved the book.You're excited.

Your spot kills, you're going to sell hundreds of thousands of these books!

Oprah asks where can people buy the book and you say:

"Send me a letter with a check for $29.95 and I will wait two weeks for the check to clear. Afterwards I will ship you your book COD. If you order now I should have it to you in eight weeks."

Your potential best seller is not a best seller anymore.

This phenomenon from a horse racing perspective was explored a little bit in HRU this week in "What Tim Tebow has that Zenyatta Doesn't". (opens in a pdf, page 8)

Give it a read if you'd like, and let me know what you think.

SC is promoting a free past performance and picks page, trying to get harness racing in Canada to stop the downward handle spiral YOY. On Wednesday the picks page had a $31 winner, which was sweet for those who played along. These things are always a good idea.

In HRU this Friday as well, Bill Finley reports on Brian Sears. It appears he is not going to race much at all at the Meadowlands (if we read between the lines). He was one of the few who generally gave the Big M a shot the past couple of years. I guess we can't blame him; when $40,000 Opens (where he can get put down on a nice 8-5 shot) are ruling the roost at Yonkers, it's green.

Speaking of the Meadowlands, VFTRG tells horsemen to "capitulate" today. I tend to agree. This chapter is already been written in the state house.

I missed this piece from Hoofbeats this past summer on harness racing, takeout and pool size. The pool size points are good - and it's one of the reasons the USTA strategic thigamjig was announced. We in harness racing have several things against us and pool size is one of the big ones. Regardless, it was a good article.

One of the good guys in our sport lost his wife this week. Rheal Bourgeois' wife Liz has passed on. You can see from the number of comments how respected they both are. I'm sorry for your loss Rheal and family.

$1.4M Winners, Trakus, A Bettor's Wish & More

2011-12-15T11:29:00.002-05:00

We've seen it too much in racing: A $1M or more winner, toiling in a cheap claimer, getting beaten badly.

The Dubai Race Night blog focused on one of those times yesterday - $1.4 million dollar winner Diamond Stripes.

Just yesterday, at Sunland Park in New Mexico, Diamond Stripes was last, beaten almost 30 lengths, racing for a bottom rung, $5,000 claiming tag. In his three starts since returning from an 18-month break, he’s been soundly defeated by nearly 60 lengths.

We don't have any details (yet) - maybe his current owner plans to retire him. Maybe the old owner is coming back for him. But it always spurs some anger, regardless of the situation; and some bad PR too. It also provides us with a harbinger of the bigger picture, and why it's so maddening: If we can't even retire a horse, or be responsible for a horse, who has made someone over $1 million dollars, the rest have little chance.

A lot of times we hear the good stories, like the one not long ago regarding Armbro Proposal. The hard-hitting millionaire was racing in a cheap claimer in London. One of the old owners got wind of it, drove up, claimed him and brought him home. Let's hope something along the same lines happens with this guy.

Moral suasion and promoting the good stories as an impetus is about all we have in racing for situations like this. There is no policy and there probably should be. If we want to give groups ammunition against us, the argument "look, they don't even care about million dollar horses in racing", help our opponents a great deal.

Turf n' Sport gives us his Christmas wishes. If you bet more than $50 a week in racing, I suspect you will be nodding at each one.

When we see a horse being managed poorly - raced too often, brought back too quickly off an injury or sickness, and many other things - it rarely turns out well. It can sometimes take months and months for them to get back to being sound and happy, and sometimes they never get back. Horse management 101 - Chapter Seven. He had issues all year, but his trainer is first class, and his owners are too. See how they did it.

Betfair is doing well, and their mobile apps are good too. 41% of their customers placed a bet via mobile in November.

Trakus was a topic today for John Pricci at HRI. He'd like to see more info about distance traveled. We do that in harness already, and it is kinda neat. Notice the "DT" line on each program raceline for each horse.

Yesterday's post on racing having poor business models and structure, where smart people can look really dumb, prompted a comment from Perretti's Bob Marks:

Enjoyed today’s piece..

Back when we were doing Boardwalk which was probably thefirst multiply owned horse venture, it was obvious that the owners-all successfulentrepreneurs in their specialty fields could not and would never grasp thenuances of the horse business as it simply defies conventional business logic.

Buy a Lexus for whatever and there’s a book that tellsyou what it will be worth In 12 months given the mileage accumulated and thebusiness man can reasonably project how long he wants to keep the car.

Buy a yearling for whatever and there’s no way ofknowing its value in 12 months assuming it has any value at all.

Kind of like drafting a kid out of college and paying himthe going rate for his position and discovering that he can’t make it inthe pros…

Buy an expensive broodmare in foal to a superstar and itcomes out crooked. Of course given her tough delivery, she’sa bitch to get back in foal and maybe after four years you wind up with two saleablehorses though the second one no matter what it looks like will be penalized bythe non performance of the ‘crooked” first one.

Racing offices bend over backwards to accommodate horsemenregardless of whether or not their staging bettable races.

Most judges have never handicapped professionally and are virtuallytraffic cops who don’t push the button unless there’s a visible infraction. Form reversal?? Whats that???

If a racetrack exec never apprenticed as a public handicapperin which his weekly take was determined by the number of winners he could pick,how the hell can he have a clue what the people in the stands are there for..

That is when we had people in the stands….

Raise a gorgeous yearling colt and maybe 10 days beforesales time it hurts itself in the stall and has a noticeable bump.

I could go on forever

We could go on forever too Bob. Thanks for the comment. Enjoy your Thursday folks!

Racing's Infrastructure is a Huge Barrier

2011-12-14T17:36:00.001-05:00

If we ask any industry watcher about someone in racing (virtually anyone), the words "out of touch", "not smart enough", or even worse come to mind as labels. It's easy to be critical of those in the sport when the business has lost upwards of half its handles the last while. And make no mistake - some of it's very valid and on-point.

I thought similar early this decade, but the more and more I think about it, (for the most part) it simply isn't the case.

I have a good friend since University who's nice guy from a working class background. He's a normal, honorable, grounded guy with no pretensions.

But he's scary smart. I mean really, scary smart.

For his GMAT to get into business school he scored a "perfect" which only a handful of people in North America do each year (when I gave him my score he was sheepish to tell me his). When we both took our first year CFA I was dumbfounded with the work. He passed with flying colors; doing half the work I did.

He started in a mail room of a major bank and finally had to leave because they didn't recognize his smarts and wouldn't promote him. I won't buy stock in that bank, ever, because this guy was that obvious.

He moved on, succeeded, and never once lost his grounded principles and street smarts, taught to him by a super-good mother and father.

We used to go to the track when we were kids and we talk about it often. When we speak about the infrastructure in racing over a few beers, he often says "no wonder it's screwed, it would take Houdini to succeed in that mess".

Nick Eaves is not 'dumb' or 'out of touch'. Neither is Bob Evans. If we read the press or chat boards, Frank Stronach is apparently the dumbest man in racing, which is quizzical seeing he built a multi-billion dollar auto parts company from scratch in a basement; something that we mortals and 99.999% of the world's population couldn't dream of doing.

Why do so many of these smart people come to racing and not succeed? I surmise some of it's because they are not gamblers, and they have to juggle the horsemen balls with the gambling balls; so, yes, that might be valid criticism.

But most of all I think it's because the deck is stacked against them. Forcing change in horse racing is like changing Congress.

Nick, Bob, Frank and others are smart. That's why they lobby for slots, table games and whatever else they can do grow their business. The solution for racing is too much work, far too elusive, not worth the opportunity cost, and at the present time, not ROI positive.

Off We Go on a Wednesday

2011-12-14T11:09:00.000-05:00

One of the better horse racing writers on the web today gets virtually no publicity at all.

Dan over at Thorotrends works extremely hard on his blog posts and they are fun, informative, thought-provoking and interesting. Praise coming from a blog dude that writes his posts in about ten minutes may need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I think I'm right on this one. Take a look at his most recent post on television and racing, and see if you agree. His other excellent posts are below that one.

The RCI bans private vets from administering lasix on raceday. I guess it's a good rule, however to me it smacks a little bit like the city of Washington D.C. banning handguns. I'm not sure it's going to be followed by bad racing people, who are using more than lasix as a pre-race.

Alan's yearly "Naughty and Nice" list is up for harness racing in 2011. Who's on it? Find out here.

I was asked why I was not talking about the political machinations in Jersey this past couple of weeks. It's not because I don't care, or that I don't think it's important. I simply feel it will get worked out and spending time on it here is a waste of mine. In the end, Chris Christie will get what he wants.

I'm someone, like many of you, who like to start and then finish things. There has to be a beginning and an end for me to feel successful. It is why I truly admire people who work in horse rescue, mainly for their determination. There is no beginning and end to horse rescue; the horses just keep coming, and coming and coming. If you'd like to help one, there is an awesome Ebay auction going on with plenty of cool stuff.

There is so little harness racing news this time of year, but Pompano sent out a press release about their end of year meet. Big Bad John, Noble, food trucks! Don't tell them it's not exciting. Well done.

When Zenyatta was winning all those races in a row there was a ton of grumbling that she didn't come east and face boys month in and month out and that her winning streak beating up on her own on poly was somehow tainted. In addition, in some camps the winning streak meant nothing. That showed the inside baseball of our sport, and why we don't let bettors and columnists so close to the sport market it. As Rapid Redux is illustrating, the general public can relate to streaks, and they mean something to them. They don't care who he raced, or what races he's in. He was on Sportscenter last evening because of the streak, nothing more and nothing less, just like Queen Z was.

Have a good day folks!

5 Claimers Can Do the Twitter

2011-12-13T16:46:00.003-05:00

I saw a twinky from a stock market follower the other day when Tim Tebow was trending via the micro-blogger.

He said (paraphrasing) "It's times like this twitter shows its power; long $twit"

Today it showed its power and what it can do in promoting a racehorse. Rapid Redux - for most intents and purposes a 5 claimer - won his 21st in a row. He trended on twitter just before post time (and still is at this time).

What's neat about that is if you click the trend hyperlink for Redux, it opens up a page which has new media associated with it. You can see pictures and videos of this lil' racehorse.

In effect, this is not unlike contextual advertising via pay per click, or Facebook advertising via that medium, but in a way it's even better.

What we have are people who have no idea who Rapid Redux is. They click the trending link. They see pictures of him (some of them live pictures) and it introduces them to a racehorse.

And it's free.

It's point and click and meet a horse.

The monetization of those clicks are a whole other story (hint - there are none right now), but for one brief period a good many people got to know a horse.

It's a darn cool story. And he's 'only' a 5 claimer.

PS: We'll look at monetization of popular racehorse press and links this weekend in HRU.

Monday Notes

2011-12-12T10:35:00.001-05:00

Here are some things that caught my eye this morning, if you're interested:

It was downright fascinating to not watch Luck last night, but 'watch it' on twitter with racing peeps. Some of the 180 degree comments like "I don't think Tim Tebow can even swoop in and save this one" to "if this doesn't help horse racing, nothing will" were interesting.

I watched the first Deadwood long ago and thought it was the worst show on earth. I didn't like a character, everything was slow, it was too raw, and more. But I ended up liking the show. I didn't watch Luck, but if I did, I have a suspicion I would feel like the LA Times reviewer, who said:

it's difficult to imagine any show that would prepare an audience for the first episode of "Luck," which moves with slow and often maddening deliberation

and

Even the master of the multiple storyline, Charles Dickens, took pity on his readers and appointed a protagonist, but Milch and director Michael Mann steadfastly refuse

That's about what I would've expected.

Ted reviews Luck here.

From Luck to Chuck

Trot Magazine allowed HANA Blog to use their article on Charlie Davis. Charlie's a cool guy - he went from playing sports and not knowing a furlong from a furcoat to being a horseplayer and horse owner.

Awesome Racing

Lovely video of Ready Cash's win in France yesterday here. Some of our trot races truly match up well for two mile or more races. If that race was on Betfair, in-running, I think we'd get a big audience over time. I have one friend who plays in-running and all he bets are the really long steeplechases.

PMU, Peeewww.

Speaking of France, I can't help but comment about it, because we often hear from racing "I wish we were like France, look at the crowds and the betting!"

France has a monopoly. Of course we wish we had one, who wouldn't?

If we put the shoe on the other foot: Would those same people like a car monopoly, where a new Ford Focus cost $38,000? How about a toothpaste monopoly where you pay $10 a tube, or subsititute baking soda to brush your teeth?

We'll never be a monopoly again, so it's tough to look at that as a model, plus they suck for the betting consumer. With the internet, good luck.

Pick 4 or Pick 5 - What do you wanna hit?

The Pick 4 at Gulfstream yesterday paid $111,000. The pick 5 (same sequence, except we added one leg, won by a 7-2 shot) paid $28,000.

Don't Ever Send Me a Picture

A friend who trains horses pinged me via Blackberry Messenger on Saturday. "Do you want a piece of a weanling?". Usually my answer would be no, but he is well bred and the deal is good. However, I was going to think about it for awhile because I have so much going on right now.

Then he sent me a picture.

I now own a piece of a weanling.

Fines

Why if an NFL player does something bad, is he fined $50k and given two games (which can be 1/8th of a $10M annual salary, or $1.25M) but a harness driver who makes $800,000 a year is fined like $100 and given a week off when he was going to fly to Aruba for a vacation anyway?

Why I Like Owning Harness Horses

The two lil yearlings I bought are training away and doing well (touch wood). I get emails like "when are you coming over to jog them? Stay the weekend, bring your dog!" I can't imagine having someone ask me over to ride my thoroughbred yearling.

Swing and a Hit

Congrats to hard-knocker Silent Swing on his 50th win.

Have a great Monday everyone.

Balmoral Handle Trending Up

2011-12-09T16:41:00.001-05:00

Let's end the week on a happy note. Those takeout cutters and hard-workers at Balmoral had some good news to share today. Enjoy your weekend everyone. Here's the press release:

TWO $20,000 GUARANTEED POOLS ONSATURDAY

Chicago, Illinois - December 9,2011- by Michael Antoniades

On the heels of avery strong November, Balmoral Park rolls into the holiday season showingstrong gains in handle compared to 2010. The combination of large fields,guaranteed pools, low takeout and monster payoffs has made the Balmoral Parksignal extremely attractive.

There was nostronger barometer than the average wagered per race. Balmoral Park showeddouble digit gains in November versus the same days in 2010.

RaceDay Average handle per race Gain in 2011 per race

2011 2010

Saturday $ 98,645 82,581 $16,064 18%

Sunday 93,004 78,931 14,073 17%

Wednesday 68,489 64,801 3,688 5%

On the gamblingside, Balmoral started a Sunday $10,000 guaranteed Pick 5 on November13. Theaverage pool has been $26,516 and the average 50 cent payoff is a mind boggling$13,637.34. The Pick Four has a guaranteed pool every night ranging from$15,000 on Wednesdays , $20,000 on Saturdays and $25,000 on Sundays. ThroughNovember 30, the average pool was $28,033 on 92 guaranteed Pick 4 pools.

On SaturdayDecember 10, Balmoral will offer two $20,000 guaranteed pools. The Pick 5 has acarryover of $4,285 and starts on race 2. The Pick 5 has a 50 cent minimum bet.The Pick 4 is on the Final Four races , starting on race 10. The Pick 4 has a15% takeout and a one dollar minimum.

I wouldpersonally like to thank the USTA and Track Master for their extraordinary helpin the Strategic Wagering Initiative. They are a big part in not only theguaranteed pools but interest in the other pools as well. The numbers don’tlie. Chris Schick, the chairman of the USTA Strategic Wagering Initiative ,said it all. “Low takeout, guaranteed pools and competitive full fields madethe fans respond in a big way. That’s obvious. We are very pleased with theresults.” So are we.

Free program pages,expert selections and the complete December schedule for the Strategic Wageringprogram can be found at the USTA’s handicapping page at ustrotting.com.

Friday Notes, Stories, Twinkies and More

2011-12-09T10:04:00.001-05:00

Here are a few things that caught my eye today, if you're interested.

I follow some of the things that Three Chimneys Farm does with regards to aftercare and industry promotion. If I am in the market for a thoroughbred yearling anytime soon, I am buying one of theirs.

Twitter has been a pretty cool medium, I must admit. Where many (me included) use linked in to network in business; for racing fans, breeding farms, turf writers and some fans, twitter is the go-to. I had to jot down some thoughts about Twitter last week. Who do I call? No one. I pinged @sidfernando on twitter and asked him some questions. I wondered what some thoroughbred fans and bettors thought of harness racing last week too. I asked Claire, or Dana, or Chris, on twitter. There was no need for a focus group.

Twitter and Harness Racing was a topic in this weeks Harness Racing Update. To see which drivers, trainers and others are engaging on twitter, and what we have to do to get more involved with the micro-blogger, you can read it here. Thanks to Sid for the comments, and Greg (@gregrienhart) for looking it over. It's much easier to ramble in pieces that take me ten minutes to write (I know, you can tell!) on this blog.

Also in Harness Racing Update we learned our friend here on blog land (and harness racing owner and commentator) Andrew Cohen got a job as the new legal correspondent for 60 Minutes. Like seriously, how cool is that? Congrats dude.

In addition on HRU it seems See You At Peelers is going to try and make a comeback next season. I still marvel at the differences in the two sports - thoroughbred and harness - in terms of openness. Takter would pretty much hand over her bloods if the press asked. I love that about this sport.

Darryl Kaplan wrote a very cool piece on San Pail in Trot magazine for the Christmas issue.

As Canadians, I think we sometimes thrive as the underdogs. Not respected and not taken seriously. But like San Pail, we go out and we take care of business, week in and week out. And no one comes onto our track and pushes us around.

I loved the piece. It's seriously worth a read for its good writing.

Richard Eng wrote today that NYRA should use some slot cash to lower takeout. Hey, I think that's a great idea.

Fantastic job by economics prof Caroline Betts on HRTV yesterday. She was interviewed by Joanne Jones and Brad Free on takeout. She elaborated on what many of us speak about regarding rakes and racing, but she did it like a smart person does.

Teresa made a good comment on yesterday's piece regarding racing and social media. I think they've done a fairly good job of late. However, I wonder if we ever had it professionally done. Businesses, leagues etc tend to have a grand plan for everyone to follow - a workshop if you will. I think that's what the NTRA was set up for, or what the Standardbred Action plan called for. Both entities are understaffed or not even funded.

Greatest trotter who ever lived? That's the question on SC. These are extremely difficult questions because harness racing has raced in different generations and our equipment and breeding are changing. The best modern trotter, in my opinion, is Varenne. The best in past times for me, is Greyhound. I loved the Grey Ghost.

Have a great Friday everyone!

Moving Away from Racing 1.0 is Very Difficult

2011-12-08T16:09:00.001-05:00

"It's not my job"

I've had a busy day here. I worked at a real job, I bet two races (1 for 2 with a positive ROI for the first time - in what feels - since the Bush administration), I chatted with a professor of finance about computer teams, takeout and pricing, scanned some releases on the RTIP conference and chatted with a couple racing peeps on twitter and via email.

For the racing side of things there seems to be a palpable frustration towards the business and its seeming unwillingness to change.

Examples:

Today Tom LaMarra wrote a piece on social media and racing from a panel at the RTIP.

It was agreed we have to embrace it.

In 2008, Jessica, Alan, Dana (and others that you know from the blog) spoke about the same things at the NTRA conference.

It was agreed we have to embrace it.

Yesterday Caroline Betts, Phd and an honest broker reported to the industry that we need to find a way to lower takeout in a real, detailed, measurable way.

Some people said we have to look at that.

In 2007 on this blog, at numerous conferences, we said we have to find a way to lower takeout in a real, detailed, measurable way.

Some people said we have to look at that.

You get the idea.

At conferences we tend to talk a lot, but nothing ever happens.

At the Standardbred Canada conference in 2008 the amazingly capable and passionate Director of Biz Dev Darryl Kaplan, put forth several panels for change, a couple of which I spoke about and joined in on. Each panel of professionals included people from outside racing, the industry itself, bettors, and others. Each session presented a vision about things like social media, using television, putting bets in corner stores, jackpot bets, lower takeout, exchange wagering, and a few other marketing initiatives. Virtually everyone agreed that these things needed to be looked at, built upon, and done.

Not settling for just talk, Darryl created working groups for each item, brought aboard professionals from all stripes to work for free and built a plan. This was not going to be "just another talk fest".

After this was constructed, each group wrote a plan, and Darryl brought it to the industry. It would need some money to implement, so he tried to build consensus and asked for funding through a Wagering Initiative.

After two long years of hard work, everything that needed to be done was talked about, summarized and ready to roll.

The table was set for Racing 2.0 in Canada.

What happened next: When it was brought up for a vote, the industry rejected it.

"Not at this time" was a familiar response.

It's easy to be frustrated with Racing 1.0 when we see conferences just talking about things. But it becomes palpable frustration when we find a way to do more than just talk and move racing forward, and it dies on the vine.

Racing 1.0 wins, and has won for decades. Right now, Racing 2.0 seems a long way off.

RTIP Takeout Thoughts - It's a Punt

2011-12-07T18:56:00.001-05:00

The panel on takeout rates today, with an industry insider, and our pal economist Caroline Betts failed to deliver too much to bridge the industry's long-suffering handle losses, in terms of pricing. One of the presenters mainly focused on data accumulation, rather than an actionable plan to test lower takeout levels, and this is what dominated the industry press.

Steve May, the business manager for the Racing Commissioners International, said that a project he undertook to examine takeout rates while studying for his master’s degree at the University of Arizona’s Race Track Industry Program failed to generate any firm conclusions on how takeout rates affect betting because he was unable to acquire enough data on handle at racetracks and handle by bettors.

"The conclusion is blank," May said. "I don’t have enough data. It would be unethical to say there is a conclusion. There’s a lot of work that need to be done on this, and to cite studies from 1976 is not good business."

So, there was no data and without data what'll happen is we'll do nothing. It'll be yet another punt, by an industry with a hard-core culture and history of punting the football down the road.

As Dave Vicary, a retired tech executive noted on Twitter:

"It's a classic argument used to avoid decision making, responsibility, and change."

I agree that's what the industry takeaway from the above will be.

I would've personally liked to have seen a narrative that focused on some sort of goal, with the stated assumption that rake is too high; mainly because there is data - real world data - to back that up.

For example, we all know bookmakers in Britain - who have been doing so for two or three centuries - charge about 5% for shorter shots in the win pool. They don't do that because they're a charity, they do it to make the most money from their customers - it's their "optimal rate". By simple reasoning, that means the 20.75% win take at Turf Paradise is probably way too high.

So:

How do we test the historically derived profit maximizing 5% takeout rate in one pool (that has been borne out of centuries of data) when we have tracks charging 20.75% here (a rate which is completely capricious)?

If you try and work a plan to implement that - say by getting all tracks on board to try a 12% win pool rake, or a 10% one sans rebate - then you can accumulate data and adjust. This is what casino's do; they tweak and test all levels on slot machines constantly. Your neighborhood bookie does too. Notice how your he/she charged ten cent lines in 1911, just like they do in 2011, without the use of excel for Mac?

How do we work towards that? What are the next steps? Do we have an action plan? Can we discuss it? These are the ideas Caroline has been working towards for some time.

Unfortunately what we tended to get here is yet another industry-led narrative that will probably involve setting up more committees to answer a question that every gambling expert, or businessman or woman out there knows the answer to already - our takeout is too high.

Authenticity With Twitter Can Go a Long Way

2011-12-07T12:34:00.001-05:00

It was reported in the National Post this morning that Alec Baldwin was kicked off a flight for not turning off his wireless device when he was asked to.

“He was on his phone. He didn’t want to get off his phone. Then he snuck into the bathroom, he became a little bit irate, and they had to remove him from the flight,” another passenger said.

The 30 Rock star, who I personally find hilarious at his craft, went on tilt on twitter afterwards:

American Airlines twitter account replied:

If the early reports from the Post story are accurate and Mr. Baldwin was clearly the one in the wrong, that was about the most unauthentic reply we can ever see.

American Airlines has its problems, but what I would've done (with my marketer hat on today) is the exact opposite. I would have replied that FAA rules call for cell phones to be shut off at a certain time, and that we as customers abide by those rules when politely asked. When we don't, we're pitched off a flight no matter who we are.

I'd probably immediately start a web ad campaign; something along the lines of:

American Airlines, where the 1% is treated like the 99%. Thank you for turning off your cell phones when asked

In the cutthroat world of travel, authenticity resonates because the competition is out to get you. Interestingly enough, in racing it's not quite that way. We depend on other tracks for signals, we depend on slots for purse money.

We won't anytime soon see an ad running outside a racino saying:

"You Realize You Are Gambling at a Game That's Impossible to Win At, Don't You?", with a picture of professional horseplayer Mike Maloney

We won't see Charles Town run an ad saying:

"Santa Anita hiked your takeout. At Charles Town we respect your financial situation in these tough times, so we lowered ours. Join us!"

We'll be having a look at twitter and harness racing this weekend in Harness Racing Update. It's a story, and a medium that gets more and more interesting. I hope you'll give it a read.

There's Never Been a Better Time for New York to Slash Takeouts

2011-12-06T12:44:00.001-05:00

The trend across racing is there, and it's prevalent. Handle will be down to close to $10 billion this season, another 7% decline.

But there are a few bright spots, and what to do to achieve some success is hitting racing over the head with a hammer:

Slots tracks that take some of their slot money to lower takeout and promote racing via alternate means, can, and do, win.Charles Town Race Course spent a little cash to be shown on TVG, promoted their big events, and lowered takeout precipitously. This is what happened:

In August, Charles Town had their 15th consecutive handle growth month.

Woodbine Racetrack, who has received oodles of slots cash since inception in the late 1990's, decided to finally do something with it a couple of years ago, other than stuff it into purses and some new coats of paint. This season they lowered their trifecta takeout, expanded lower cost wagering to the US, and paid TVG some slots cash to show their races.

The result? Handle was up 7.5%.

New York racing has the same opportunity, but thus far we have heard nothing along these lines. Nothing except stuffing slots cash into purses, which hasn't worked for the demand side anywhere. They have had two takeout hikes the past several years, and as horseplayer Mike Maloney noted in an interview in Horseplayer Magazine:

Their exotics takeout on the tris and supers is absurd anyway, so the combination of those two things pushes me away from New York most of the time.

Today it was announced that the Aqueduct casino is the most successful in all of New York State. There are no excuses left. New York must begin to show some vision and lower takeout, distribute their signal and use slot cash for the demand side of the equation and not just for the supply side. If they do, we might actually be able to grow handle in 2012, instead of watching it circle the drain for another year.

We Do Have a Racing Season

2011-12-05T12:26:00.001-05:00

You'll often hear folks speak about how racing does not have a beginning and end, like football or baseball does. That's certainly true. 365 days a year you can watch and bet racing, virtually 24 hours a day. This certainly does bother some, and despite the obvious differences (baseball and football are sports, while we are a participatory sport and gambling game), they have a point.

If we scan most racing related websites, it seems we do have a season, don't we? This is a 2011 look at traffic trends to DRF.com, via quantcast.

This works like clockwork each year.

When April rolls around we begin to see stories on nightly sportscasts, newspapers and the interwebs focus on the Derby. The Derby is watched and the winner is spoken about time and again. With the Derby winner fresh in the minds of the general public, and with only a two week gap to the second leg of the Crown (will the horse or won't he keep on the Triple Crown trail?), interest is still there. Into June, we still see interest in the last leg of the Crown, even if it's not achievable.

In addition, it does not matter who the participants are during our "season" just like it has little effect in football or baseball. Spectacular Bid or Secretariat could be the protagonists, or Mine that Bird or Animal Kingdom can. The spike and resulting wane in interest will be seen just like it will for a Super Bowl game between two little known teams.

If anyone asks me if thoroughbred racing has a season, I always answer yes. It starts in late April and ends when the Belmont winner crosses the finish line.

It's Probably Time Enough

2011-12-04T11:01:00.001-05:00

Finley writes in HRU today (pdf), regarding banished-from-racing Walter Case Jr.

On the surface, Case, who has also had numerous problems with substance abuse, is not exactly a nice guy. And I am not interested in scrathing beneath the surface or examining whatever demons might have made him so troubled. I just don't see what any of that has to do with his right to drive a standardbred race horse and the right of an owner or trainer to hire him to do so.

The more I think about this question, the flimsier and flimsier the excuses to keep him out of racing are. I can simply find little behind the arguments against him, and they tend to fall back on a catch-all "we don't need people like that in racing".

Those arguments bother me.

This is a sport that does not even ban trainers for life if they are criminally convicted of animal abuse. Why ban a driver who served his time?

Zzzzzzzz

You have said for so long in comments and elsewhere here on the blog that our stakes races in North America tend to be snorefests. In Saturday's Harness Racing Update this was explored (page three).

Chuck's Back

Not long ago Caroline Betts and I were speaking on twitter about her garage sale for her horse rescue where she had nothing major for sale including "a helicopter flight manual". I jokingly proposed she say the manual was owned by Chuck Yeager and the price would skyrocket. Not soon after Chuck Yeager was in our twitter stream, mentioning he never owned a flight manual. Very funny. Well, he's back. She is currently running an Ebay auction and I asked (because the price of one item is through the roof) if Chuck Yeager ever owned that piece. ten minutes later, there's Chuck asking "what did I own?"

You Don't See Closes Like This on a 5/8ths too Often

Anyone catch the Western Canadian Pacing Derby from Northlands yesterday? I could not believe that horse got up. What a nice stretch drive. Video here.

Hottest Horse in Harness Racing?

Sparky Mark

Thoroughbred Punters Think.....

I chatted with some of my thoroughbred betting friends yesterday about harness racing (they don't play it and almost never watch). Each one said they found it too chalky. I think we'll explore that question for an article soon. If you are a thoroughbred bettor who doesn't touch harness, let me know.

Have a great Sunday. I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.

The Results are in: Rebranding TV Coverage Works

2011-12-02T10:39:00.001-05:00

The results are in from the recent Bet Night Live experiment on The Score Television network, and they are solid (see below).

For those who have not followed the story, here is some background, from a post on the blog a couple of years ago:

For those that read the blog, a hot topic for us in local racing has been the use of television to show things the old fashioned way, versus targeting bettors in a targeted way. As most who watch Race Night on the Score know, the human interest stories, while the great puzzle of handicapping the races is going on are maddening.

As I have said before, and you have agreed , "if we have to watch another story on a feed man from north of Guelph who owns four pet ponies during a telecast I think I am going to have a seizure". In my view, not using a show like this in promoting what you are selling (i.e. gambling on the product from home) is wasted airtime.

Well it appears this might be changing. Race Night will be rebranded to 'Bet Night Live' at the end of the month. The new show will "centre around a four-race wagering contest through WEG’s online platform HorsePlayer Interactive."

At the Standardbred Wagering Conference in 2008 I spoke to several people involved about rebranding the show, and they relayed to me that talking about betting on the air ran somewhat afoul of government rules (yes it was true. The government can spend millions on TV talking about casino's but lil' old racetracks can not talk too specifically about betting). However, it appears they can at least broach the subject and have devised a plan. Long ago on this topic we spoke of creating a special Monday bet, like a "Score Pick 4" at a 14.99% takeout (making it promotable as the lowest takeout pick 4 in North America) where the bet is promoted each Monday on TV. I think an idea like that has a chance. After all, Monday's this past month all Woodbine did was highlight a pick 4 pool by guaranteeing it. Guess what, it grew. By highlighting and promoting - virtually nothing quite honestly - they got people to play it. When was the last time you saw a $58k pick 4 pool at Woodbine harness? Probably a North America Cup night. Well that is what they got bet into it last Monday.

For too long racing has had the attitude that if you show something, or offer a race, people will come just like they did long ago. It is not the way it works today, you have to offer something and promote it. You have to experiment. You have to work at it. You have to give people a reason to bet your product. And most of all, you can not bean count. It matters what your business is in five years, not five weeks; that's why many businesses write five year business plans. From a bean counting perspective, raising the pick 4 take five years ago was just fine. I would ask Woodbine how their overall nightly handles are five years hence with decreased churn from the hike.

It's not your grandfather's racing and it is not a monopoly product any longer. The Kentucky Derby can promote itself as an event with side shows galore. Work week betting at Woodbine or Mohawk is a game, not an event. If Woodbine uses this in the right way, Monday's could be their highest handle night, in my opinion, without question, and I would have this as a corporate goal.

Today some statistics were released:

In the two-year lifespan of the network program, the total number of new sign-ups has reached 2,086, with over $5.7 million wagered.
The new format is proving to be successful as Bet Night Live’s audience is growing. This season there has been a 30 percent hike in viewers compared to the 2009 season of Race Night on The Score.

I am unsure they are tracking TV signups from regular ones, but if 20% of those sign ups and 20% of the handle from them are due to the brand change, this has supplied the Return on Ad Spend expected. In addition, if you can retain 5-15% of your new accounts with incentives and good business, the life time value of the new customers is a gift that keeps on giving.

As we noted this week in this post, I hope the Jockey Club is listening, and devising a plan to win customers, not just show racing.

In addition we can only hope Woodbine keeps trying new things, looking at offering not only the betting product, but betting value, has a plan to cultivate the new signups, and incisively track newbie bettor behavior.

Juice the Handle, Up the Eyeballs, Grow the Sport

2011-12-01T15:05:00.001-05:00

In the 1970's share purchases were generally for rich folk. The Dow did very little volume, and a trade could cost me and you 3% or more (hundreds of dollars a trade). It was very difficult, and not cost effective to buy and sell stocks. Later on, much to the chagrin of seatholders, commissions were slashed. In the 1990's you could trade a stock for as low as $6. This (along with many other factors) allowed share volume to explode.

The commission revenue from investors, even at a $6 price instead of a $400 or $500 one, also exploded.

Not only that, it drove eyeballs. Books, DVD's, channels like CNBC and much more are more than a cottage industry, investing has become wholly mainstream, and a multiple billion dollar one.

In this day and age, racing has its own push/pull with commissions. Today on the Paulick Report Peter Berube of Tampa was interviewed. He has been lowering takeout since the early 2000's and Tampa has seen an increase in revenue.

“I am convinced reducing takeout does increase handle,” Berube said. Furthermore, he said he is convinced the increase in handle makes up for the lower commissions from each dollar wagered when takeout is lowered.

Ray Paulick metioned another fact in the comments, the growth of purses:

The aspect that concerns me is that while handle has increased significantly for Tampa Bay, purses have been flat [they are up 3% the past few years]. It's the antithesis of handle down/purses up....

That is an argument we do hear from horsemen regarding purses. If handle goes up 10%, purses better go up close to 10% too. Tampa's 3% purse increase and 15% handle increase is not doing the dollar for dollar job over the last couple of years.

Since we have competition and we must put more into customer retention to compete with other gambling games, we have not seen 6% to 8% of all handle going to purses like it had been (although Scott Daruty and Monarch are trying to go after market forces by doing that). In other parts of the world, where they have lived with competition for decades, like the UK and Australia, they have lower margins. About 2% of handle goes to purses in Australia and about 0.95% in the UK. We're simply catching up due to disruptive market forces.

Tampa, back in the 1990's, raised their takeout rates to 20% in straight pools and 28% in all others. Handle fell and they were only processing about $500,000 per day. Purses, I guess we can assume, would have been around $50,000 per day (that's a guess, I do not have the figures). Fifteen or so years later, in an industry that has lost upwards of half its business during that time, Tampa is doing $161,000 per day in purses (some of it from alternate revenue), or about a 300% increase. And they are doing over $4.2M in handle at the lower rates, instead of $500k at the higher rates, about an 850% increase. Tampa is not putting the same margin into purses now, but it still looks damn good.

One can only imagine what purses would have been today if they stayed at the old business model. Maybe they would do $40k per day, or they might have run a super-short boutique meet, doing nothing for local horsepeople. It's probably more likely they would've shut their doors, and we would not even be speaking about them today.

Regardless, the argument that an 850% increase in handle with only a 300% increase in purses resonates with a lot of people in racing as a bad thing for the business of horse racing. The phrase "our fair share" comes to mind. But I do not think it's a bad thing, for another reason other than the one above (i.e. if Tampa hadn't competed, it might not be racing today).

It focuses on eyeballs.

Let me ask. What would you rather have as a horse racing fan, exec, or trainer?:

20% of handle for purses with a $4M daily handle, or 5% of handle for purses with a $16M per day handle (e.g. what Tampa has done)?

I'd choose the latter.

If this was done industry-wide and we as a business did $40 billion in handle a year instead of $10 billion by taking less, many more people would be watching racing, and we have any more people interested in the sport.

We'd have more people visiting racetracks
We'd have more people buying horses
We'd have more people buying data
We'd have more people watching racing on television (maybe so that one day we don't have to pay networks to show us)
We'd have more people extolling its virtues on social media
We'd have more money going to horse retirement (those who get a share of handle)
We'd have more money going to jockey and driver insurance and charities
We'd have more people telling their friends about racing
We'd have more money going to state houses and legislatures (some of them get a share of wagering dollars too) giving us tremendous lobbying power and political pull

And much more.

It's easy to be upset about the changing landscape and its perfectly natural. It's easy to fight over slices of the pie and worry about what went where ten years ago instead of where it goes today. However, when we grow the pie there are spin-offs and machinations that can grow the sport of horse racing because volume and eyeballs matter. Just like the stock exchange.

Sometimes taking less today, means more for tomorrow.

There's One Spot Left to Grab an Edge: At the Track

2011-11-30T10:56:00.001-05:00

This morning we've got a huge surge in the stock markets. But it did not look that way early on.

As Keith McCullough writes today in his market update, the use of twitter has changed the way we think and act. As a result, the markets are extremely fast, and efficient with short-term, knee-jerk moves.

Watching the US Equity futures trade this morning captures the essence of how short-term the group-thinking associated with the Type 2 Player in this game has become:
At 4AM EST, I jot down in my trusty notebook “China down -3.3% to down -16.9% YTD, testing October lows”
At 6AM EST, headline hits “China cuts reserve requirements, 50 basis points”
The S&P futures went from down 8 points to up 8 in a nanosecond of what could be best described as media panting about point #2 on Twitter.
Twitter, you see, is replacing what Old Wall Street calls “the tape.” On Wall Street 2.0, tweeters with analytical competence not only capture the China like headline “news” in real-time but have it synthesized within seconds.

In racing we have our very own Racing 2.0, and some of it is on twitter as well. You cannot go a week without hearing how a horse looks off in the post parade or in the paddock from someone at the track, or seeing real time market action on betfair, reflecting something that you and I at home can't see.

Just this weekend a horse at (if my memory serves) Mountaineer was trading as the favorite at betfair at around 5-2. In several flashes (just like the S&P this morning), he was 6-1. What's up? Three minutes later he was scratched by the track vet. Someone (probably at the track, or with a keen eye to the simo screen) knew, someone acted, and someone wanted to profit, all within a few minutes.

The funny thing? On the tote, pari-mutuelly, while this was happening, he was still the chalk.

Sometimes it works the other way. A horse in the gate acts up, the price surges, and he wins.

Not only do you need 2.0 information, you need a 2.0 way to expose it, and profit from it. Regardless, quick price changes are happening and will continue to, due to conduits like twitter and betfair.

At the track it is not like that - yet. I was at Woodbine not long ago and a 4-5 shot warmed up terrible. Bettors were not watching; they were looking at TV screens. One person, a long time friend, was, and he alerted me to it. We both faded the horse in pick 3's and 4's and in exotics, making a little bit of scratch. The horse was 4-5, got everything his own way and came 7th. In simulcast land people were perplexed. If the race was on betfair he probably would've been 5-2 or even higher, but it wasn't.

As most serious players know, chucking out a 4-5 shot who will not hit the top three and taking a huge swing, can make your entire year.

Long, long ago, Pittsburgh Phil would profit from being at the track and charting the horses. It was easy to make a buck from the unsuspecting public if you were there, and if you were betting something that no one else is looking at. In 2011 - with virtually everyone paying attention to speed figs, four screens, or constructing tickets on copious exotics - almost the exact same thing is being done on track, only in a slightly different way. Just make sure the tweeters and the betfair users don't get hold of the information first.

The Big Push for Televising Racing

2011-11-27T19:10:00.001-05:00

Open a story on a racing website and you'll probably read about one of racings new marketing pushes - television. The industry is hopeful that new coverage on channels like Versus might do the job.

The Jockey Club is spending $10M over 5 years on this new initiative.

On the surface it makes sense. We have a neat sport, and if we put in on television, someone new in the mass market might watch it and become a fan. That narrative resonates.

Unfortunately I'm not convinced this spend will give back the needed, or expected revenue. I know a lot of you aren't convinced, either.

If rodeo is on television Saturday, do we watch it because it's on?

The pentathalon?

Beach volleyball?

Cycling?

What about amateur boxing?

Did anyone watch the CFL when it was on NBC during the NFL strike in the 1980's?

All those events or sports are on television, or were on television, and have been for many years; some of them are shown many more hours a week than racing ever will be on network TV. Theyare not, and probably never will be, major league sports, or gain market share (in fact many of them have lost more market share than racing has).

The only time many of us do watch them - more than likely - is when the event is bigger than the sport. For the month of the Olympics we're suckers for swimming, curling or snowboarding. I am a huge cycling fan for two weeks a year when the Tour De France rolls around like I am sure many of you are.

We in racing have similar with the Kentucky Derby. It doesn't matter if the field has four superstars or a field of twenty future 30 claimers - people will watch it and people will attend it.

So why the focus on television, and putting our tracks and races out there as is? Well, a consulting firm said so, but I think it's more than that. I think it comes down to the participants' love of the sport, the love of the mass market, and the thought that we have to do something.

"We love racing and if we could only show it to the masses, they would love it too. Even if one person watches and becomes a fan it's a success"

It sounds good and it's easy to rally around.

Not all agree. Seth Godin writes, extolling the virtues of not being married to old-school push marketing:

"Mass is dying. The tide has turned, and mass as the engine of our culture is gone forever."

According to Godin, and its a theme in other new marketing literature as well, we can't just "put something on" and hope this mass market finds it. It is not the way it works anymore. TV advertising in many ways is even being kicked to the curb.

I believe racing is built to market itself in the 21st century. It is not mass, in a non-mass, niche world. It has active participants of all flavors, "tribes", a multivariable fan base, a double pronged market (the fan and the horseplayer/gambler), loud and proud fans on social media and elsewhere, a foothold with the over 55 demographic with plenty of time and money on their hands, events that almost everyone knows, and much more.

It is not like football or baseball, because those sports' do not make money when we play them. Racing makes money when we play it (e.g. when we buy a horse or bet a horse).

Until we figure out our unique market and its place in the world, spending scarce funds on the conduit of television, in my opinion, is putting the cart before the horse. We need to find a way to present racing that sticks with new viewers, and gets them to participate in the racing conversation, in some way, with us. In my opinion, then and only then will we have a chance at success.

I love to watch racing on television. It's on the big screen, it's in HD, there are neat interviews and features. Don't get me wrong, I am happy it's going to be on over the next several years. I am simply not comfortable with a "put it on TV and hope" policy.

That may have worked at one time, but it rarely works now.

Saturday Notes

2011-11-26T11:19:00.001-05:00

Some notes and other commentary for a Saturday morning:

Canadian horsemen go south to Turf Paradise. Canadian bettors sure don't, or shouldn't. They quietly upped takeout recently. The WPS take now stands at 20.75% (note: this is not a misprint).

Harness Racing Update has some response letters to Andrew Cohen's last piece on the sports' participants turning a blind eye to cheatin'. Harness racing meets this head on at times, while thoroughbred racing doesn't.

Betfair hired a former NYRA exec to help establish exchange betting. I'd love a NYRA exec to look into lowering the takeout that they've hiked, now that gazillions are coming in the door via the slot machines. But maybe that's just me.

"Judges" can play with betting money in racing - anyone who got a call go against them, or for them knows that - but we rarely think of it in other sports. Betfair has changed all that. On Thursday in the NFL there was a close call on a 4th and five late in the game. The TV cut to commercial, but many thought it was worth a challenge. Regardless, $4000 popped up to bet Baltimore at 1.30. If this play was challenged and the challenge won, it was game over with Baltimore winning (and trading at 1.01). It turns out the play was challenged, but it was not overturned. For the bettor who may have taken a chance on that $4k, he still won. You'd see this at Betfair from time to time in the past on photos in running. The horse will trade while the judges are looking at the photo, or an inquiry. There is more in this world to bet, other than outcomes of a final score, or who hits the wire first. The internet has changed all that.

Want to watch some harness action? Check the video of Smokin Up's win in the Miracle Mile. In Million dollar races up here sometimes we see a boat race. Not down there, for half that. Exciting, and it was a wire to wire win, to boot.

Fans of Wise Dan's win in the Clark include the owners of Havre De Grace and Caleb's Posse. Those votes are easier today.

Allan looked at the complicity in some tracks regarding kill buyers yesterday. This was spawned from a chat on twitter from a harness fan who was there.

Tonight is the Forest City at Western Fair. Interesting race. I'll be watching.

Have a great Saturday everyone.

Forest City & Nick, Keith and the Billionaire

2011-11-24T22:01:00.001-05:00

A few quick stories tonight.

First, the Forest City Pace is on tap for Saturday at Western Fair. It's not too often you get to see a Breeders Crown champ at Western Fair, fresh off the big 149.1 win, but we do. And, she has the dreaded seven post, which should make this a very interesting race. Greg Blanchard has his youtube preview and I have linked it below; give it a watch as he runs down the excellent pick 4 sequence. Programs et al, are here.

Second up, Keith McCalmont's piece on trainer Nick Boyd is out on the Trot website. Nick discusses the Risky Business TV show with billionaire Brett Wilson, and the state of the game in his opinion. HANA added his comments on their blog tonight, because it is fairly rare to hear a trainer, or industry participant speak of the bettor.

Not long after Nick began his training journey, he wrote about his outlook here on the blog. You can read it by clicking here.

News Notes and Opinions

Andrew Cohen's swan song at Harness Racing Update was good today. He speaks of a few things o_crunk and I were speaking about on Twitter yesterday - namely, how did we let it get like this?

It's been several months and one of our horse's still needs a retirement home. He lives around Milton right now, but he really needs someone to be his buddy for the rest of his days. He's ten, he's sound and he likes carrots. If anyone is interested please email me at Pullthepocket@gmail.com. The only condition is you can't race him anymore.

Jack Welch once said that he wants managers that fear not to change, rather those who fear change. I took a seminar on "the dip" today. It involved how companies that change rarely get it right the first time, and there is a dip before you can grow again. I thought of racing. We have our own dip, but we never changed to get it. Like a lot of businesses who fear change that needs change, it happened all on its own.

"Woodbine Keen to Add Sports Betting." Good for Woodbine, but what a churn killer for horseplayers.

John Pricci wrote today that he wishes racetrack executives would play their own yearly salary into the pools at full boat rakes to see how impossible racing is. He's right. He also spoke of some of the very good work Lenny is doing at Equinometry about studying takeout changes.

There is some interesting chatter on the Dan Patch Awards of late. Casie Coleman has been lobbying for her horse to be voted over Roll With Joe. Ray Schnittker told Harness Racing Update that his filly should win Horse of the Year over San Pail. I think Ray and Casie should buy a horse together and call it "Say What?".

I don't know why there is so much chatter in the US as well on Horse of the Year. Havre De Grace is a big favorite to win, and probably deserves to win. People seem to be talking like this is some sort of tough decision this year. I guess because a girl won it last year, and she's not as good as that girl?

I watched "Mad Money" on CNBC yesterday and Jim was teaching newbies Fibonacci retracements, and chart theory. We use "racing is too complex" as a crutch why we can't grow.

Great story. Three Chimneys claims an old Jim Rome horse, and gives him a home for life.

Great story II - Visit the So Cal Thoroughbred Rescue homepage and marvel at the before and after photos. Well done!

Here's Greg's youtube preview. Enjoy!

And have a great evening.

Giving Thanks to the Horse Rescues

2011-11-22T11:55:00.001-05:00

Rufus, just hanging out

"Dogs have given us their absolute all. We are the center of their universe. We are the focus of their love and faith and trust. They serve us in return for scraps. It is without a doubt the best deal man has ever made."

I read a wonderful blog piece last night from Melaina Phipps. It was about her journey in rescuing a blind basset hound named Rufus.

When I sent the story to a friend who runs a dog rescue she immediately replied:

"I don't know if I'm just having an emotional day, but it brought tears to my eyes."

Rufus seems to wake up each day happy to be alive. In another age or another time he probably would not be with us anymore. We can learn a lot as humans from ol' Rufus.

There are other blind dogs that are available for adoption, who need people like you and me, willing to give them a chance. I was astounded to see the vast number of them on the Blind Dog Rescue alliance website.

Bear. Cute? Think so.

The people I do meet in the rescue community have amazing hearts, and I never once hear them ask for praise, pity or anything else for that matter. I think it was Freud who said we all do things that make us feel good inside because we are all inherently selfish. Maybe that's true, but it's not something I am overly concerned with, because these animals win, and they're the lucky ones for it.

Horse rescue is completely similar, I find. I come across so many in the industry who work their asses off, for nothing more than the good feeling they get from helping a retired racehorse.

People like Caroline of So Cal Thoroughbred Rescue come to mind. You won't find a day pass without her trying to raise money for her rescue, or trying to find a wonderful horse a new home, and a new loving family. There are a hundred or more Caroline's out there, doing the work that many of us are unable, or unwilling to do.

At times it must be very frustrating, because although a lot of us believe that horse rescue should be of paramount importance in our industry, many times it results in only lip service.

What to do? I will give thanks to the people like Caroline, and hope that we put forth some policy that gives her and others like her the tools to make their vision a reality.

"Horse's have given us their absolute all. We are the center of their universe. We are the focus of their love and faith and trust. They serve us in return for scraps. It is without a doubt the best deal man has ever made - With apologies to Roger Caras

Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends.

Twinky of the Day

2011-11-21T23:57:00.001-05:00

Today's twinky of the day came from Derek Brown, before Rapid Redux took the track to try and win his 20th in a row.

In other twitter news, a little bird told me today (I won't mention any names; it was Ed DeRosa) that @toddpletcher is apparently not the real Todd Pletcher. Thankfully the first fake Todd Pletcher (the guy before the second fake Todd Pletcher) is back twinkying tonight and he had something to say about Rapid Redux's 20th win in a row.

Tonight, all seems right in the world.

Don't Lie, Your Worldview is Your Worldview

2011-11-20T22:10:00.001-05:00

Spring break fits a worldview. It's fun, crazy and we (well, when I was 20 at least) have to be there.

The worldview of most who like Starbucks compels them to pay $3.50 for a coffee they could get at work for free.

There are many more examples.

What worldview does racing fit? It depends on who you ask.

To me (and probably you), it's fun, interesting, entertaining, enthralling, competitive and a joy to be around.

To a PETA or WWF member it's bloodsport.

To a poker player, it's a gambling game for suckers.

To a college kid it's boring.

To a pure sports fan, it makes no sense to cheer for brown animals, when they can watch Sidney Crosby instead.

You get the picture.

The problem is, for the growth of the sport, or as a gambling game, the PETA types, college kids and poker players et al, are a target market in some way. There is not enough me's and there are not enough you's, (and some of folks like the PETA crew cause us problems.)

Seth Godin in All Marketers Are Liars speaks about the inability (or fallacy) for an industry or business to use marketing to attack one's worldview, especially when that view is entrenched.

If we market to a poker player a message of the 'great value he gets at the track', he'll laugh at us. He's heard the old saying "you can beat a race, but can't beat the races", and knows 25% takeouts are virtually impossible. If we market to a college kid selling him some sort of sizzle, he won't buy it for a second. He knows it's a half hour between races, either from trying racing or hearing about it from his friends at one time.

Godin says it is virtually impossible to win these people over by marketing.

What he does suggest, is to change the product instead.

"If changing your offering is the best way to get your message to spread, then that's what you should do instead of whining about how hard it is to get your message out"

I think he's correct. It's why I have never been a proponent of throwing marketing money as a panacea; because we would be targeting people who will never listen to us. We have to change our product first.

How about running a 4 in 48 at the track with some giveaways to attack the college kids' worldview that we're too slow?

How about building a low takeout exchange to attack the poker players worldview that this is a game for suckers?

I am sure you can think of many other things to try.

At that point I submit we'd run into the second problem: We'd have to convince a racing executive or horsemen group to change something that is probably completely at odds with their worldview (we can't lower takeout, we can't change whipping, we can't decrease time between races etc).

We're not the first business or industry -nor will we be the last- to suffer from the above symptoms. When we are dealing in worldviews change is very, very difficult.

Cloudy's Knight's Tale

2011-11-20T11:08:00.001-05:00

What a nice way to spend 40 minutes on a Sunday morning - watching the Arlington Park produced story on Cloudy's Knight. That's what owning horses is about.

If you are interested you can watch it on youtube here.

Talking Some Business Today

2011-11-18T10:22:00.001-05:00

We're off on a Friday; and I see our US friends have a short week next week, too. It might be a quieter next seven days or so.

I just realized this a business post for the most part. I wanted to talk about San Pail and a few other things, but bah, some things catching my eye as a marketer and new business dude who's worked with a lot of start-ups got me rambling.

Seth Godin has been on a roll lately at his blog.

If you try something that doesn't work, try something else. If you have an idea to change the sport for the better and a superior slams the door in your face because they are focused on the fence and not jumping over it, try another door. Trying to change racing via an effort is all that many of us ask of racings executives and participants.

I use a lot of items to handicap, and I use several items to enjoy it. One product I use is my Blackberry playbook. I can watch race video, read my printouts and pp's with ease. It's slim, light, can fit in a big back pocket, and it has been reliable. I paid $600 for mine, and this Friday you can get one for $199 via Black Friday sales across North America.

Big George Foreman, harness owner, grillmasta(!) and the former heavyweight champ is on twitter. He talks about harness racing sometimes, and his love for horses. I was surprised to see him so conversational. You can find him at @georgeforeman.

Yesterday was interesting at Aqueduct. Out of the nine winning horse's yesterday, seven had the #1 pace adjusted late fig, and the other two who failed to win with the top fig, were second. This is one of the more fascinating areas in handicapping. Some days things click with certain horses or certain metrics. Track bias, for example, can turn the entire odds board on its head. If you have a deep closer with top figs, they can be 3-1 fair odds on a fair track, 8-5 fair on a closing bias track, and 10-1 on a pure speedway.

Equinometry is a fine addition to the blogosphere. He looks at things handicappers are interested in, like takeout and ticket construction.

Grabbing and capturing and holding customers. Your cable company does it, as does your phone company, and many others. Once they have you as a customer and cultivate you, it makes it difficult for you to switch. For a subscription model, LTV (or lifetime value) is pretty much the only method you need to look at (with a healthy respect and back-modelling, for initial CPA's). It's the same way for racing via the net. If I land you for a month you might give me $100 in revenue. If I land you and keep you for years, you can be worth millions. I just do not see this in our racing ADW model - I simply see cannibalization and an intransigent focus on initial CPA's. I could be wrong, but that's what I see.

Speaking of models along these lines, Amazon.com started shipping their Kindle Fire this week at a bare-bottomed $199. It costs them more to make it, but their LTV says it's worth it. When you have a Fire you are linked to the Amazon cloud, Prime, and it spurs website sales. It is disruptive to the iPad.

Disruption occurs given two criteria. The first: that incumbents move upmarket to the most profitable segments, ignoring low-end competitors at the bottom of the market. The second: that the low-end competitor introduces a product with a scalable technology or business model advantage at its core that has the potential to displace the incumbent. This is exactly what Amazon has with the Kindle Fire.

Does racing have a disruptor to pull out of the hat? Probably, but it would take about 45 jurisdictions to agree to implement it. That would take effort.

Have a great Friday folks!!!

Thursday Notes

2011-11-17T08:35:00.001-05:00

Good Thursday morning everyone.

First, Casino-ville:

Alan reports Yonkers revenues are down in terms of win per machine since the casino opened at the Big A. Does this mean harness purses are on their way down too? Time will tell.

In Massachusetts, the casino bill was signed, after an amendment that cut racings revenues from it, in half.

Life was simpler when we depended only on handle, no?

With apologies to Tom LaMarra at the Bloodhorse, something made me go hmmmm this morning:

Franco Harris was let go by the Meadows (fired) for comments in support of Penn State coach Paterno.

Richard Dutrow was given a stay, allowing him to train while he appeals his 10 year ban. Appeals in these cases, according to the DRF can last a year.

In Mr. Harris's case we have a private business firing someone for an opinion - not a popular one - which is their right. The thing is, the man who he is supporting has not even had one day of due process. As the Wall Street Journal reports, Grand Juries in Pennsylvania are a little bit different - they allow for something called "presentment".

"They're one-sided and unfair, and in some instances can be inquisitorial," said Bennett Gershman, a law professor at Pace University and a former prosecutor.

So, it's fine to fire a guy who supports a fellow who has not even had his say yet - in court or otherwise - via a one-sided presentment.

But, Mr. Dutrow, who was banned for 10 years on facts already in evidence and ruled upon, happily earns a living while he gets his say.

Racing is a sport, and a club, where training and owning is a privilege not a right, and exclusions can and do happen, just like they do in the NBA or NHL. Free speech, right or wrong free speech, about someone who has not even had his day in court is a basic human right.

Flame me if you must (and reading the web I am sure you will because opinions on the Penn State stuff usually do resort to it), but the fact that Franco Harris is looking for a new job, while Mr. Dutrow has his old one, seems intellectually odd.

Agreement reached between rival groups in California. Do we have a show of hands? How many people think this is good for customers? This simply looks like more cooks stirring the broth to me.

Horse's slip through the cracks, but there is usually someone there to help. The story of Jug winner Nicks Fantasy.

Sometimes they slip through the cracks via nefarious means, and it's pretty sad. The Truth about the Shergar horse kidnapping.

Silly season is upon us. Horse retirements to stud abound. Seriously, do we really, really, really need Daylon Magician retired to stud? The sport is broken.

Hong Kong does not like Australia thinking outside the box on sectional time, or beaten length bets. Is it just me. or when a monopoly like Hong Kong preaches to a non-monopoly like Aussie racing trying to compete does it rub you the wrong way too?

There's a double-carry at Aqueduct today. Yesterday a 1-2 and 2-5 winner both won, but only 5 of 6 did the job. I keyed three winners - and walked away with zip. I couldn't find the others with a magnifying glass.

The first "Santa kicked out story" of the season. That's it, I am going to the track dressed as Santa. When they kick me out they'll be saving me money.

Someone gave a vote to Check Me Out over San Pail in the Hambo Top Ten this week. Last week Check Me Out won the Matron after a break. The thing is, although visually impressive, it really wasn't. She came home in 57.1 and came her back three quarters in what she is capable in. The field was a 158 trotting field. If Usain Bolt fell on his face against high schoolers at the start, got up and still won the race in 13.45, we would not be super-impressed. There was no need to change the San Pail vote, in my opinion.

Have a great day everyone.

Racing's Piracy Paradox

2011-11-15T17:48:00.001-05:00

Throughout the early part of the decade (and continuing to this day), the response from racing with regards to offshore websites is one of pure vitriol. They have spent countless time and plenty of money trying to do away with them. Of course they had a point: these sites were taking bets on racing, without paying for the signal. Even today, despite rules and regulations, as well as acts of Congress like the UIGEA, which prohibit this wagering, it is brought up time and again.

At wagering conferences, on this blog, and in general discussions with my betting friends, I often have put forth the argument that shutting these places down will do (or has done) nothing positive for handle. In fact, I believe that shutting them down (and not looking to work with them in some way) might actually hurt the industry; doing exactly the opposite of what was intended.

The reason I had that view, was because "Free" is a business model in the 21st century.

In the book of the same name (I am re-reading it now, which spawned Sunday's post), Chris Anderson of wired looked at the free economy in China, as it pertains to knock off purses, shoes and watches - you know, the stuff that's in the back of a Yonge Street or Canal Street shop, that no one is supposed to know about. In China this market is pretty much the entire market. As an example, if a star is seen with a new Gucci bag in a snapshot at an awards show, the bag will be mass-produced in China as a knock-off before Gucci even mass produces them for sale. It's a huge part of the economy.

The thing is, as the author states, this is not really that bad for Gucci bags. On the contrary. He contends that it's good for Gucci bags.

It turns out that the middle class in China is growing leaps and bounds and they are the primary market for the pirated products (mainly young women). They want the real bag or shoes, but they can't afford it right now. Anderson referenced a survey done in 2007 that showed young women - by an overwhelming majority - would save four months salary just to own a Gucci bag because the sub-culture of these items had been ingrained into them on the streets of their town, and elsewhere. In effect, the pirated items lit a fire inside them.

Over the next several years as China's economy grew and many of these young women began to become upwardly mobile, sales of the real things grew as well.

The sales of pirated items didn't destroy the market, it primed the market (Free, p. 204)

This concept lies inside a theory called the "piracy paradox". When we think about it, it makes perfect sense.

In racing, when offshore sites were shut down via the UIGEA and now are doing a small fraction of the handle of earlier this decade, one would think all would be well. Racing handles should be growing, shouldn't they, as this money comes back into the pools? It hasn't. Not even close.

I believe this has not happened because racing has its own piracy paradox.

People who used offshore sites did so because of a few benefits:

Lower takeout - they were tired of paying 22% or more, because they could not beat 22% or more.
Convenience - if I want to bet Belmont, Woodbine, and Santa Anita, at a decent price, I need three ADWs. Offshore you can bet them all, in one spot
Payoffs - If you wanted to bet a $50 exacta at a small track you could. It would not knock it down to a small payoff.

This was exemplified in a comment right here on this blog from an offshore player several years ago:

I was using pinnacle offshore until the debacle [internet gaming act]. Because of the rebate I found a way to make place bets profitable. I wound up with a 3.2% loss, but a rebate of 7%. It actually was a rebate of 6.2% as they did not give a rebate on 2.20 horses. Now the kicker is, I went from betting about 30 to 50k to 1.3 million that year. It made the churn factor possible. If takeout is lowered it may have the same affect. I now have changed my play where place betting is profitable, but it is so small that I have stopped. I would definitely go back to the pools if takeout is lowered significantly.

Shutting down his offshore site did not bring him back to racing, it made him an ex-bettor. Multiply this gentleman by a thousand, or ten thousand, and we have ourselves a paradox, and lost handle.

What offshore sites did was keep people interested in racing, and I think what they siphoned out of the pools was made up in eyeballs, and ancillary wagering.

If a pick 6 with a massive carryover came up, they would be there to play in the pools (offshore sites would not accept a pick 6 wager). With some offshore sites having capped payoffs in many bets, and no ten cent wagers, these folks would keep an on-shore account to play those too. And so on.

It kept bettors happy.

It kept bettors engaged.

It kept them betting into the pools, supporting purses and profits.

Shutting them down was not wrong. It just didn't help us much, and it probably hurt us.

Racing must find a way to engage the people who are no longer playing our sport by attacking what they don't like, or didn't like in the first place. The concept of "Free" is one way to do it, but Free is a bad word in our game (just look at tracks and horsemen asking for ADW's to be disbanded because they think they don't pay enough, the pure hatred of 5% takeouts at betfair, or new consortiums of protection like Monarch).

We fight to protect our slices, until there are no slices left. The business model needs a drastic review. And possibly a little bit of Free.

Cultural Differences

2011-11-14T21:18:00.001-05:00

Via Alexa, here are the traffic ranks and more for drf.com.

And here is the Racing Post, in the UK

Both sites (and papers) are racing staples. However, in the UK the Racing Post ranks 371st in traffic. In the US, the drf site can't crack the top 4000.

There's Not Much Left But the Bettor

2011-11-13T20:13:00.001-05:00

I came across an interesting chart tonight on music sales revenue:

The graph is fairly self-explanatory. In the late 1980's to around the year 2000, CD sales were a positive innovation for revenues. They sounded better, lasted longer and were much more expensive. Add the fact that all the previously sold tapes and LP's would have to be rebought again to fill out your collection, and we've got ourselves a big bubble.

In 2000, along came digital music, with marginal costs that approached free. The bubble was broken and sales revenue went down. Sure people once again rebought old tunes, but they weren't paying $20 for ten songs in a shiny package, sometimes with nine of them they didn't even like. They were paying 99 cents at a website near their fingertips.

This chart is not unlike a chart for racing's core revenues. We too were in a bubble that when shocked (some would say finally made fair for competitors) finally burst. There was nowhere, or nothing else, in many towns and cities across North America to gamble on in a legal way. When that changed, racing found it difficult to compete, and handle was lost.

That is where the similarity ends. The music industry could fight their revenue losses in myriad ways. Because album or CD sales were not the be all and end all, and their entertainers were worth something, they could thrive. Music is heard by more people than ever before because of digital downloads and youtube. With cheap pricing and cheap broadband comes more supply, and more demand. Concert revenues can grow, as can sponsorship of tours. This is, in part, why despite the curve above, total worldwide music revenues has grown every year since 2000 and now stands at almost $68B.

If racing followed the same path we would have seen the handle bubble burst, but we'd shift to alternate forms of horse racing revenue to make up the losses. The problem with that, is that there are no other sources of horse racing revenue. We pay networks to show us not the other way around. People won't pay $160 to watch horse's run around in a circle like they do to watch Bono sing around in a circle. We can't sell a jockey's jersey for $97 either.

We're left only with the bettor. That's it.

So far (I don't think it's a stretch to say) we have not embraced growing new bettors and keeping our old ones happy. We haven't cultivated them like online stock trading firms do their customers. We haven't offered them new ways to play, like an exchange. We haven't lowered prices for them - in fact, in places like California we have done just the opposite.

That's probably because we have been given slots for a little while and the subsidy has eased the pain, as most subsidies do.

But sooner or later, all that's left will be the bettor. When they ask why they should continue to patronize our sport, or tell friends to join and support the industry to help it grow again, we'd better have an answer for them.

Initial Stud Values. Are They a Mugs Game or Good Business?

2011-11-12T10:58:00.001-05:00

This was tweeted out this morning:

It may be moving that way in thoroughbred racing, but in harness, have we moved at all off that opinion? I'd have to surmise we haven't.

We see it each year - a big name horse is retired and his stud fee is huge; Deweycheatumnhowe, Donato Hanover, Somebeachsomewhere to name but three. The breeding farm goes all in and brings the best mares they can find for the first crop, hoping they have a supersire (or trying to make it a self fulfilling prophecy). Yearling buyers line up for the new, new thing, and away we go.

This season at Harrisburg, the second crop of Donato Hanover was all the rage. His foals sold like gangbusters. He had two or three very nice horses in his first crop and we all heard about them. Not following his first crop via its hard numbers I was sold too - wow, the son of Dtrain is really mowing them down. So was the narrative.

But as I looked deeper into his numbers, expecting to see the hype confirmed, I found something different.

From the published statistics on Standardbred Canada:

Out of his first crop of stellar mares, 100 were registered. 43 made it to the track for a 43% start rate, 18 took a lifetime mark in a race. 4 out of the 100 made over $100,000. 15 out of the hundred (15%) made his stud fee back at two.

If we contrast that with an "old" sire, who has good press but is not in the first crop narrative, we see a difference.

Kadabra had 30 taking a lifetime mark in a race. He had 60 out of 109 make it for a 55% start rate. He has (at the time of writing) 6 horses who have made over $100,000. 28 have made more than his stud fee.

If we look at only the numbers, and factor in the amazing group of mares Donato got when compared to Kadabra, one may think that Kadabra rules the roost. But that would not be correct.

Donato stands for double Kadabra's price. At Harrisburg, Donato had three foals sell for $200k or greater, one for $290k. At all the sales Kadabra had $210k filly sell, with everything else around $100k or lower.

We've seen this time and again, in my opinion, with first crop sires who catch, or first crop sires in general. The buzz, the excitement, the buy the hype is there. And it seems to happen each year.

Donato had a good year and looks like a nice sire (especially when you factor in the talented and wonderful Check Me Out), but is he that good?

Is the first crop sire method a mugs game, a self-fulfilling prophecy, or is it simply good business?

It might be a little bit of all three.

We Won't Get a Bias

2011-11-11T18:26:00.001-05:00

In modern society we see it almost every day. If we have a bias, that bias will be reflected in our opinions.

For many who like and revere coach Paterno, they may come down on his side, without even knowing the facts, or caring about them.

For some people who immediately thought Paula Jones was a victim of Democrat Bill Clinton, Republican Herman Cain's accusers are gold diggers.

One may expect John Corzine to be a poster boy for the Occupy Wall Street folks to hang their hat on because of the MF Global news, but because of the letter before or after his name, he is notably absent in some of the protests.

There are probably a dozen or more examples in the right here and right now.

One place we will not get a bias is at this year's RTIP in Arizona. Caroline Betts, an economist, will be talking about takeout. More than likely she will not use the words "put on the show" or "horse racing is expensive so we need to charge a high price" in her presentation. It won't be based on qualitative bias or industry talking points, but on the quantitative and what those numbers show.

We need the quantitative in racing, because when we manage the sport like you or I manage our businesses - with return on investment in mind rather than on innuendo or bias - we have a chance for it to grow.

It Must be Tough Being a Thoroughbred Trainer

2011-11-09T17:28:00.002-05:00

Horse owners can be a real pain in the ass. Trainers for that matter can, to, when it comes to making excuses for poor performances. But owners can really take the cake sometimes.

In harness racing the list of excuses is long - the horse needs to be on a helmet, he needs to be on the front, he got a bad drive, the track was sticky, the bridle didn't work, I blew a tire, he threw a shoe. There are a few more, but you get the drift.

Most of the time these excuses are nonsense - the horse simply had a bad day, or there is something wrong with him or her and it needs to be addressed. However, usually (because harness racing races each seven days), you can prove or disprove the excuse quite quickly. Just pop the horse back in, race him on a helmet instead of on the front (for that excuse) and boom, mystery over.

I spoke to a friend today and we chatted about the excuses from some owners in thoroughbred racing. They truly do take the cake.

Where harness has five or ten prime excuses, thoroughbred racing has a hundred or more.

Aside from the usual dozen or so excuses from both sports', we have:

You sent him too long
You sent him too short
He doesn't like poly
He doesn't like dirt
He doesn't like turf
Your 3f work sharpened him up too much
Your 5f work was too long

There are surely, with different distances, surfaces, and all the rest, many, many more.

The thing is: The horse in question does not race each week, or 35 times or more a year. He might race six times, or not even enough to run through all the excuses for bad efforts! It could be two or three years before you run through them all.

I feel for every thoroughbred trainer out there; the ones who have to put up with excuse-making owners who are unable to see and understand their horse's ability. It has to be a tough job.

Was Zenyatta Racing on Saturday?

2011-11-08T15:37:00.000-05:00

With a hat tip to o_crunk on twitter, we have a graph of the search trends on google over the last couple of weeks. The blue line is Zenyatta and the red line is 2011 Champion Drosselmeyer.

Even retired she trends close to as much as the 2011 champion. Unheard of. It shows there is little doubt she was and is an amazingly popular racehorse.

Tuesday Notes

2011-11-08T08:45:00.005-05:00

Off we go on a Tuesday.

Uncle Mo has been retired. It turns out his GGT measure is off the charts again. There are people who will call BS on that, but I am not one of them. Recently I would receive calls from a trainer with a nice horse that was simply racing flat (he reminded me of Mo and how he's raced actually). His GGT was elevated and he tracked down a dozen or more vets, others with the issue - some as even as far away as Australia - and it was a puzzle. The causes were many, the treatments were all tried and it was something that was just there. So many others on the web, whether it be with a pony, a racehorse or a trail horse would share similar stories on the mysteries of liver function and high GGT readings. It is one of the mysteries in caring for horses, and racing horses, in my opinion. I think we all agree Mo is much better than he had been showing, and when I hear the letters "GGT" it makes much more sense now.

The construction business in Jersey must be good! Tom and John Cancelliere purchased the brother to Donato and the brother to Somebeachsomewhere at Harrisburg yesterday. To get them they only had to shell out, oh, about $1.2 million.

I spent $0.012 million this season on two yearlings, in contrast. The thing about yearlings is: It doesn't really matter how much you spend, you can still dream of having a nice horse.

Alan looks at the improvements at the Big A in a recent trip there.

I can't figure out the press releases coming out of Europe this past month. There is supposedly Chinese money there to fund the ESFS, then there isn't. The Italy credit markets are pointing to implosion, but apparently not. There's a rumor a day that makes almost no sense in reality. California racing gives them a run for their money. With four day weeks to five day, with SA compared to Hollywood, with a BC included or not included. No wonder every Cali racing press release is usually accompanied by a commenter asking if "Baghdad Bob" wrote it.

I am not overly concerned with the HOY debate in the US this season, as there were simply no horses who wowed me beyond belief. However, thoughts like this do go to show why some folks who own a dominant female racehorse don't step out of the class much.

A writer opines: "For Havre de Grace, her bid to be horse of the year probably ended with her fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic."

Argh. A mare steps out, like everyone begs her to do (she already won a Grade I against them) for the good of the sport, and she comes a very nice fourth. But that counts against her? She would've been better served to never face the boys; she'd probably be 1-9 to win HOY this season.

There are so many clever folks in interweb land, and two on twitter who make me chuckle, involve supertrainer Todd Pletcher.

A fake Mike Repole tweeted this recently:

People keep saying I'll make Uncle Mo the favorite. Maybe. But the bigger news is that the Mo-Stay Thirsty exacta will pay $2.40
His counterpart, a fake Todd Pletcher, chimes in with gems like:

Can never b to prepared, prepping winners circle photo; photog asked for my better side, we both laughed.

and after Mo and Stay Thirsty finished second and third last in the Classic:

Sorry folks -- Gone Fishin'

Very clever stuff.

A sad note this morning for boxing fans, which I am and probably always will be: Joe Frazier has died. I have fond memories of listening to fights on the radio with my dad as a wee lad (no chance at TV as we only had a couple channels in my remote town). Several of them involved Smokin' Joe, whom I loved. He was a prototypical blue-collar fighter that you could easily cheer for. Every fan I know will remember those times, and remember Joe. He passed on my dad's birthday, and I bet my father is telling him this morning how much he admired his work-ethic and tenacity. I hope Joe rests well.

D Train Colt Brings $825k

2011-11-07T17:31:00.000-05:00

The highest price yearling ever to sell in harness racing history sold just now at Harrisburg. The son of Andover Hall-D Train brought $825k. He was smashingly calm in the ring too.

It is not really that inconceivable. He could probably stand right now in a slots state for a couple of thousand (he is a looker), and at 80 mares a year for three years, that would bring his current value to somewhere around $350,000, without having raced.

He is going into the books as the highest priced yearling in racing, but I'll call some hooey on that. Laugh A Day in 1982 or 1983 sold for $625k, and with a multiplier, that is about $1.4 million in 2011 cash.

In Harness Racing There's No Celebrity

2011-11-06T19:11:00.002-05:00

I remember heading on the streetcar to Greenwood, nightly, as a kid, to play the races. When you reached the track you'd invariably meet characters of all stripes, and often times you'd sit with them, but rarely would the conversation be anything more than "who do you like?"

One gentleman I would see at the track almost every race night, and chat with, was a nice fella who never seemed to have a job. He was kind of just there every time I was. He was a harness fan through and through.

One evening, (many months after I had been chatting with him) between races I asked how he made his living, and he quietly (looking around, almost like he didn't want anyone to know) said "I write songs".

I said "Cool. Would I know any?"

He replied, "Maybe. Have you ever heard "Go for Soda" by Kim Mitchell? I co-wrote that, along with others on that album."

Sure I heard of it. You could not be Canadian and not. It turns out he not only wrote and produced with Mitchell, but also with Rush.

I still remember his name. It was Pye.

I chatted about this tonight with a friend who had a similar harness racing story.

Yesterday (or any other year) watching the Breeders' Cup, there are tons of celebrities - owning, betting, or being there. And time after time on television and otherwise I honestly find (my conversationalist tonight agreed) there is a real "look at me and who I am" type atmosphere surrounding some in the sport. Maybe I am mistaken, but that's the vibe I get. It even seems to seep through on Facebook and twitter at times.

In harness, whether it be owning, or training, or sitting in the stands it doesn't seem like that at all.

Right or wrong on my friend and I's comparison, it's a huge reason why I am a fan of this sport. It's one where if you have a million dollars and a champion pacer, a desk job at a bank and a 12 claimer, or if you are sitting in the stands betting, we're all a part of it, and no one seems to care one way or another who you are, what you do, what you have, or where you came from.

They just seem to care who you like in the fifth.

Breeders Cup Post Script

2011-11-06T09:07:00.002-05:00

A few random thoughts about the BC from the last 48 hours of being glued to the TV and interweb screens.....

Handle was down this year by about 5%, as was attendance. Unlike last year, when Zenyatta was the most popular horse in the sport (by a football field), there was simply not the same buzz. I guess that is not unexpected.

My favorite races, on pure talent: The Juvy Sprint and the Juvy Fillies. Wow, those two winners were hugely impressive.

By the time the Classic rolled around I was pretty fatigued this year, but I think it was more than just that. I could simply not find a horse to hang my hat on. In hindsight, Drosselmeyer seemed to be on the improve and seemed like a horse who, at 10f, would not be stopping like he was racing in glue, like most of the rest of them. Regardless, it was a less than stellar tilt. I hope thoroughbred racing finds some way to keep good horses around, because we need the Classic to be a Classic.

In-running betting should be embraced for the BC and we should have it here. It was completely fascinating yesterday on Betfair. Hansen traded high when he looked beat and there were several others who took mucho action during in-running betting. Exciting!

Todd Pletcher did not have a good Classic, just like last year when Quality Road came 10th or 11th (and the year before for that matter). Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo almost dead heated for second last. Ironically, with the slow final time, Mo as a two year old when he zipped 8.5f in 142.3 and galloped out in about 149 for 9f, probably would have finished better than he did this year. There is something wrong with that horse, but I guess it is not a newsflash.

Here is where we juxtapose: The Breeders Cup and Kentucky racing this year wanted to ensure that no horse raced who was not fit to race, after last year's Life at Ten fiasco. No fewer than three horses were scratched, and scratched quickly before the gate sprung this year. It was all about horse safety and public relations. However, how does one explain the non DQ of Golidikova then? Her rider almost mugged Courageous Cat, causing a massive check that was very dangerous. Is horse safety paramount for the massive TV audience, only before a race is run, but not during it?

The Turf Sprint - can they run that on Friday, or not at all? It's like handicapping a slot machine. After spending an hour, I used seven horses in my horizontals, and had no strong feeling I would get past it.

Hansen wins! He was an ultimate fade for many, but he came to play. Union Rags did travel further and raced well, but I don't take anything away from a horse who zipped out quickly, looked beat and fought everyone off like a good horse should. My only regret is that I wish Union Rags was named NKOTB. The saver exacta would have padded my bankroll.

I'm a Mo fan (last year's Mo anyway), but the bettor part of me wishes he went in the mile. I was unimpressed with his last and he would've been a major-league throw out for me at 4-5 or lower. The way he fought yesterday, he would not have won any race, at any distance.

There was plenty of chatter on Twitter during the Goldikova non-DQ. Most of it stemmed from fans noticing a football game was on one of the monitors in the stewards shack. Like seriously guys, the world is watching, there is millions of dollars at stake, both in purses and betting. Shut off the football game.

The Horse of the Year dogma might be challenged this season. What older male horse, on dirt, at Classic distances was good? Ummm, not sure. I think the most impressive horse this year was a 2 year old filly, and that sure won't fly. Even if she was proven (and everyone agreed) to be the best horse in training, she would not get a sniff.

The pick 6 live bombers in the Classic told the tale of how the pick 6 tends to work on BC day. Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge - both longshots - were the only live horses. There are pin-seekers with ABC tickets during this day, looking for the pool shot, and it brings up some wild and wacky live combos.

The Breeders Cup overall, I feel, is too much. There are so many races, and with high rake, huge fields and many possibles it is a bankroll killer. I love it, don't get me wrong, and I am the furthest from a BC basher as you'll find, but I wonder if there is not a better way. A week long festival maybe, with some of the undercard races on the undercards? I have no idea.

How much of the handle loss in 2011 can be attributed to lack of churn via longshots winning? The velocity of money en masse, is certainly better for rebetting when it's in the hands of many, rather than a few.

One word that would've brought tons of energy to this Breeders' Cup? Frankel.

Tom LaMarra liked Hansen with me, and we both liked Turralure. I'm betting more with Tom next year, because that intersection of thought was about the best I did this weekend.

Caleb's Posse ran a great race, and did it like a lot of great races are run - with little variance internal splits. He ran 23.68, 23.20, 23.90, 24.07 as per Trakus. He's such a nice horse.

I pin seek at Breeders Cup's because that's what I do. This year the closest I came to hitting my score was in the Juvy Turf, when I played Excaper in pick 4's and supers. I was close to making it a more than profitable year on that play, but no dice. He raced fantastic. I hope you fared better.

Twitter 'shot' of the day (well of today as this was tweeted this morning):

You're a bad boy Derek!

Have a great Sunday everyone.

Euro Market Notes

2011-11-05T12:32:00.000-04:00

For those taking pick 4's and sixes etc, there might be some clues (or might not) via betfair.

In the Juvy Turf, Faraaj is liked more than Wrote, and I read more people liking the latter here in NA. Euro's are posting Caspar will not like the distance, and he is 6-1ML and 8-1 offshore. Wrote has a fair bit to book at 9-1, which popped up earlier today.

Sarafina has tightened of late and is a fairly strong fave.

Goldikova has drifted from about 2.6 to 2.9 the last 24 hours.

Daddy Long Legs has been getting solid support throughout and is lower than his ML. Crusade is trading above his ML.

Strong Suit and Byword are pretty close in the early betting.

Uncle Mo has vastly drifted and is now around 6-1. Havre De Grace is now the chalk, which is different than the early doubles!

Don't Scratch My Cheval

2011-11-05T08:59:00.002-04:00

Last evening before the filly and mare turf, French filly Announce acted like a punch drunk welterweight, got a little spooked, hit the rail, and brushed by (ironically) an ambulance.

She seemed fine, but according to the ESPN telecast she had some scrapes and was scratched by the track vet.

I don't know much French, but when they showed the jock and trainer, we didn't need to. They spoke the international language of 'smoke flying out of ones ears'. They were incensed.

This, in my opinion, is what happens when you pile bad policy on top of bad policy. Since the Life at Ten mess, racing came back with a response to any and everything in these situations (while ignoring the connections), so they don't have another one, instead of fixing a problem that was not that difficult to fix.

It appears what we had was a horse who might have had a scrape or two, being scratched, with no trainer consultation. This, right before a race for megabucks, with residual breeding values based on the result; not to mention a plane ride worth ten K, friends and family and everyone else making the trip, and gosh knows what else to make it happen.

If I went through all that and you scratched my horse for what might be a scrape or two - especially without letting me know - I'd be pissed too. I think we all would.

I'm just a small horse owner and a dumb bettor, but I see no reason why what we wrote here on the blog last year ("The Way We Handle Scratches in Mayfield") after the Life at Ten incident is not workable.

The lines of communication must be set, consistent and open, and the protocol for scratching should be clear to all Breeders Cup participants. The responsibility for a final say on scratching (and any malfeasance for not scratching), must reside with the trainer. This is the World Series of Racing, not the third at Mountaineer.

Putting a vet in that situation in such a huge race with so much at stake, is simply not acceptable. It's unfair to everyone involved and a lawsuit waiting to happen.

Maybe Announce needed to be scratched, but there has to be a better way to ensure the connections are respected.

The commissions last year decided things like disallowing interviews before the race (that's forward thinking in a social media world), or blaming Jon Veitch, helped "solve" the problem. When much of what you are worried about is public relations focused, you don't get at the root problem. There are consequences for that inaction.

This year, the victim of it might be a French trainer, jock and horse owner. It's a long flight home, on what was supposed to be a weekend to remember. And we don't have to speak French to know it.

Update: Although it has no effect on the point of the post - connections need to be consulted to avoid problems - thankfully the connections (after the race) agreed with the decision.

Friday Notes & Random BC11 Odd Couple Thoughts

2011-11-04T10:40:00.000-04:00

Today at 2PM Churchill Downs begins Breeders' Cup weekend, one of a handful of successful handle and promotional weeks in the sport. It's also an amazingly difficult mind exercise for punters. The fields are deep, almost every horse is coming into it appearing fit and sound, and there is perceived value everywhere. If anything, bankroll management trumps handicapping on days like this.

I have enjoyed this card(s) since inception, when I was a kid in Northern Ontario, watching racing in So Cal, when it was cold outside. I have always loved the concept. I have some thoughts below on who I may like or not like, but since there are hundreds such places on the interweb to read those, I left that to the end of the post so it is easily skippable.

Today's News/Thoughts

Horse racing bets on exchange wagering via the Sac Bee. In Cali one might expect this to end up in a huge fight, with a huge mess that someone is going to have to clean up.

Sports betting coming to Canada? Woodbine sure hopes so.

Why is Uncle Mo the morning line fave, many are asking? He is, because he is. He is 4-1 at Betfair in a sub par field.

Cangamble lists some free stuff for the Breeders' Cup (among others).

If Blame didn't retire after his gruelling 12 start career, what's the over/under on his odds for this Classic? I am thinking 4-5.

Putthebabiesdown is 60-1 currently at betfair. There's no story there. I just love saying Putthebabiesdown.

A little bird told me purses at Santa Anita this meet are up about 3%, not the 20% or more that the takeout increase promised. If true, it proves that when handle goes down like it has, purses can not go up in the logn run, no matter how much spin or creative accounting is used. It's just math, and that works in most of the world (Greece excluded).

I am having a Breeders Cup Party today and another one tomorrow. So far it's me and the dog and that's going to be it. Do I have no friends, or do people not like horse racing? Leaning the former.

Today's menu for the party after a meeting is finalized: Chips, dip, wings, pizza and bones.

I had a super fun time last night on Google+ with a video handicapping meet up with five other handicappers. What a great time. That's a great service.

@sidfernando made a crack this morning on twitter about The Odd Couple remake; one starring Herman Cain and Rick Perry. It made me think of my favorite exchange in the history of that series (paraphrasing, because my memory is not what it used to be):

Oscar (teaching Felix how to bet): You can bet win place or show. If you bet win and the horse wins, you win. If you bet place and the horse comes in the top two you win. If you bet show, and the horse comes in the top three, you win.

Felix: That doesn't sound right.

Oscar: What do you mean?

Felix: Are you telling me that if you bet show, all you have to do is pick a horse to come in the top three in this five horse field, and you win?

Oscar: Ya.

Felix: How do you lose so much money?

Gambling always sounds so much easier in theory than practice.

Some random BC thoughts:

Secret Circle kicks it off. Key or don't key? I am on the fence. Trinniberg, Seeker, Sum of Parts are others I am looking at. Secret Circle is even money and getting hammered at betfair.

Software players are all over Stopshoppingmaria in the Juvy Fillies Turf and I think she may be some value, despite that. The chalk looks formidable.

Stacelita is taking money, and rightfully so off her last monster effort and resume. I was alive to an "all" in that leg of the pick 4 (with some paying monster prices) and she never looked interested, was off in the middle of the track, but still won easily, killing my payoff. Aruna is one I might go off the board to there for a shot. Misty for Me might be overlooked.

The Distaff looks like a slam dunk off the huge fig Plum Pretty ran in her last, but what about that fig? If she regresses off the top, it looks completely wide open. Early on in my capping I found her a decent key horse, but now I am not sure. She is currently about 4-1 at betfair.

Tomorrow is super interesting. In the classic, each time I handicap the race and come to Uncle Mo, I can't help thinking Quality Road.

Golidkova, key or fade? Leaning the former.

Union Rags, key or fade? Because of his professionalism, I am leaning key. Hansen has me thinking, as does the rail horse at a bomb price.

I don't like Uncle Mo or Havre De Grace in the Classic (as they run one-two!), and I'm going to take a shot in exotics, pitching them both out of the top two. I am looking at a Flat Out-Game On Dude-Rattlesnake Bridge- To Honor and Serve box.

My biggest fade for the day is Euroears. So he'll win.

My best long one to play, that I really like, is Jersey Town. I think his last was a clunker, he'll be better and he likes the distance. He's 24-1 at betfair, and that's too much for me.

Rapport - for some reason - in the Turf Sprint is a horse I want to use on the bottom of tickets at a huge price.

I like Majestic City and don't mind the ultra-bomb Excaper to hit the top four somewhere.

After spending too much time on the Marathon, I settled on Cease.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the weekend!

Rest in Peace

2011-11-02T16:39:00.002-04:00

If the love of the sport of harness racing had a scorecard, we'd have a winner. Rest in Peace.

More Data Woes

2011-11-01T23:37:00.000-04:00

We've spoken about it several times here before, and I am sure you've seen it elsewhere - the debate about data. Where major league sports have embraced what data can do to grow their sports' - fantasy comes to mind - we seem to constantly misstep in racing. And it looks like we have another example.

This was tweeted out this evening:

A few years ago I sat on a panel at a wagering conference where the topic was "Wagering in the 21st Century". Beside me was a fellow named Dave Vicary, who was a retired programmer, and a massive fan of the sport. His presentation focused on getting easy to use, cutting edge information into the hands of fans to make the game more enjoyable, and winnable, among other things.

Dave was working on a program that used artificial intelligence (with computers running 24 hours a day) that he programmed to scrape factors in the past performances that correlated to a better odds line. His lines were ROI positive, and had factors that people understand, in a very hard to understand game.

He had several other ideas too, like being able to highlight horses on video through a user experience.

In general, Dave was an innovator and someone we want in our sport.

Because this venture of his needed data, he received it from Standardbred Canada. Tracks like Sudbury Downs or Woodstock Raceway, with handles around $7000 would be carried by his software and promoted by him, through his website. It seemed like a mutually beneficial relationship - a data provider and industry group working together with an innovator to grow the wagering base in Canada. After all, SC's mission statement says they are there to "promote harness racing in Canada and beyond". A year or two ago, he went live.

Dave was not going to get rich selling his printouts - that's just silly - especially for tracks with $7,000 of nightly handle. In fact, he was giving it out for free of late. In addition, no developer is going to spend thousands of hours programming for a market that is small like Canadian harness racing is (just ask app creators what they program for, iPad's or Playbook's), because they would be working for below sweat shop wages. Dave's work filled a void that would likely never be filled by anyone and possibly open up harness racing to a younger, tech savvy audience. The cost to our sport? A data stream that likely is gathering dust, or being used as a paper weight.

It seemed like a win-win, and it also seemed to honor Standardbred Canada's mission statement quite well; it's how things are supposed to work in a niche sport.

But apparently not. Right now it appears Dave's data has been shut off (including the personal account he paid for, and had been using to bet into the pools himself, providing much-needed liquidity to this Province's small harness tracks). Why, I do not know, but I expect they wanted money or a slice of his (probable) miniscule revenues.

It is surely disappointing, but unfortunately not unexpected in our industry. We've seen this played out, oh so many times and it is probably one of the reasons the handle clock on the SC homepage has been red each year since about 2001.

Fan Friendly

2011-10-31T11:20:00.000-04:00

Keeneland announced they had a 9.3% increase in all source handle for the meet that concluded this weekend.

Is there a more fan friendly track than Keeneland out there in racetrack land?

I dedicate the bulk of my wagering money to tracks that I feel want my business, and it got me thinking. What tracks do I find fan-friendly on the thoroughbred and harness side? Which tracks do I feel good about supporting?

Top Three Thoroughbred Tracks

1. The aforementioned Keeneland: I don't have poly-fright (in fact I like the big fields, the uncertainty and modeling jockeys), so that isn't a strike for me. A polycapping database, they keep their fans informed, they lobbied for a takeout reduction early in the decade (that was rejected, but prescient), a willingness to card large fields at all costs without dogma, and a fine on-track experience. Hands down, a track I love to support with my money.

2. Tampa Bay: There is plenty of work to do for Tampa to reach Keenland for me, but any track that moves from about 68th in the HANA rankings to number three is clearly doing something right. On-trackers have nothing but good to say about this track too.

3. Monmouth: It plays fair, the marketing department tries hard, and they were the first track to try something different for the customer with the elite meet. They were also the first track with a 15% pick 4 and pick 5.

Honorable mention is Hawthorne: They try their asses off, have lowered rake the best they can right now, and are always looking for player feedback to get better.

Top Three Harness Tracks

1. Tioga: The owners and racing managers lobbied the New York State Wagering Board for "the lowest takeout allowed by law" and got it. They are carding stakes races that once raced at the Meadowlands. On track buzz is huge. Anyone who says this gets my number one ranking with a bullet:

"Jeff [track owner Jeff Gural] and I would like to see the takeout lowered to nine or 10 per cent," he was quoted as saying in the ESPN.com article. "That way it would be equal to what the take is on the slots. We want to put the horseplayer on an equal level with the people who play the slots."

2. Balmoral Park: Try and try they might. The push and promotion of the low takeout pick 4 is noticed by players. There are some decent fields and they put on a worthwhile product for fans.

3. Northfield: They lowered takeout, the drivers try each race like they are racing for a million dollar purse. Fun place to watch.

Those are the tracks I watch and think "they really want me as a customer". I also don't think it is a coincidence that the six tracks listed are not dependent wholly on slot machines.

Do you have any you feel treat you well that I did not list?

A Great 'Blue Collar' Horse Does the Sport a World of Good

2011-10-30T12:52:00.000-04:00

Admit it, in a world where we're talking about 99ers and one percenters, no matter where you fall on that spectrum, you love to cheer on blue collar horses, owned by blue collar folks. In the sport of horse racing, to find that horse you have to look no further than shoe-in Horse of the Year, San Pail.

Moved as a three year old to a mom and pop stable, the horse was an unraced gelding that "no one wanted". Years later as a seven year old, he has climbed the mountain to the top of the sport. He has raced 107 times, with 49 wins, and has amassed a bankroll of almost $3 million dollars. With each of those wins, the winners circles get bigger, the turnstiles spin a little more, and more and more people turn their televisions on.

Last evening at the Breeders' Crown, the San Pail Fan Club reached a crescendo. He would get his biggest test to date. He would not only have to race the top trotters on this continent, but from Europe too.

Landing on Friday, Commander Crowe and Rapide Lebel, the top horses from overseas were fit and ready to take on the blue collar horse, and they delivered (especially the latter) two performances that made everyone take notice just how good our European counterparts are. Hung from the quarter, even for a period three wide, and moving first over through stiff fractions, the excellent Rapide Lebel kept digging and digging, trying his heart out.

In the end the local horse, to cheers, won, but the invaders certainly had nothing to hang their heads about.

I remember speaking with an old time horseman once, and he said the days where when you got beat you "shut up, shook the man's hand and congratulated him for having a fine horse" have been lost. Well, lost for some maybe , but not for all.

In the post race interviews (if you are interested please watch them below - they are at the 3:45 minute mark) the blue collar horse's connections showed no bravado, and they conducted themselves like they always have; with respect for their horse, his fans, and his competition. They are truly happy to be blessed with this animal, and are incredibly appreciative of the fans who feel they are a part of their horse.

A very emotional Randy Waples: "I honestly think that if I had stayed where I was and the other horse had gotten to the front I don’t think I would have beat him. They both raced unbelievable, they are truly champion horses those two [European] horses. They are just unbelievable, it was a great experience to race against them. I’m glad that I beat them, but they didn’t lose any races tonight."

Trainer Rod Hughes: "It just shows what can happen when a horse like this sticks around and races. It's good for the sport"

Indeed.

This is the power of one horse, in one division. One only wonders what we could do in terms of viewership and participation via attendance if we had five or six.

Notes

For full Crown recaps and video, please click here.

Further to yesterday's post crown blog where I mentioned the international flavor adds to its excitment and marketability, Greg from the Harness edge tweeted this to me this morning:

It is a good illustration why I disagree vehemently with the argument the Breeders Cup and it's pitch as a world wide event has hurt racing, and that we should focus on our horses, and our dirt. Please enjoy the San Pail video below. Again, around 3:45 are the interviews.

Breeders Crown Complete

2011-10-29T23:25:00.003-04:00

We'll have a ton more on the BC no doubt, but a few quick notes.

If you came wanting to bet chalk, you were probably rewarded nicely, as no chalk was worse than second, and seven favorites won. The two pick 4's (even with the longest shot of the night clicking in the last leg), were microscopic.
Clunker of the night: Big Bad John. The Jug winner was leading, and came last
Horse that could've went around three times and still beat them? Chapter Seven.
Handle was $3.7 million, which is good. Woodbine, since starting to be more customer and bettor-driven in about 2009, has started to turn a bit of a corner.
Tough night at the office? Tony O'Sullivan. Alsace, perfect trip and no fire. Drop the Ball was nothing like she was last week. I bet he thought he was winning both those races, easily.
Tim Tetrick horses won a lot of races tonight; without him in the bike. It shows when we replace a good driver with another good driver, who cares.
I bet against Sweet Lou at Lexington, and cashed my ticket. How did this horse lose that race? What a performance.
If I could've bet a horse at the head of the lane at 1-20, it would've been We Will See and I would have thought it an overlay. He was flat as a pancake.
Brothers (and Seth, their breeder) did well. Sweet Lou and Bettor Sweet winning-exacta.
HOY? San Pail
3YO of the year? Roll With Joe. In a suspect group, he won a million and a half and raced all year long.
3YO Trotter of the year? Who the heck knows.

One last note. On the blog the last several years, especially with Breeders Crown posts, we have talked about trying to make the event international, because it will drive betting and interest. Tonight, in race 7, we saw two foreign invaders make the race super exciting.

Not only that (and this was shocking): The pools for the aged trot, with only a seven horse field, were the biggest of the entire evening. International money, international interest? I don't know. But when a seven horse field trot beats the pulp off the handle of 10 horse 3YO final, or the 10 horse aged final, we're onto something.

Despite having a terrible night at the windows (I know I wrote short prices should do well tonight and you may have trouble finding some long ones, but I can't play short ones in big pools trying to make a score), it was a good night of racing (made so primarily by race 7), in my opinion. I hope y'all enjoyed it.

Saturday Notes

2011-10-29T12:13:00.000-04:00

Happy Breeders Crown day.

Here are a few notes that caught my eye:

The Aqueduct slots parlor opens with long lines. I am reading on a few chat boards and blogs like Alan's the need for capital improvements at the Big A, and the general excitement that somehow a bigger purse will make life so much better.

I guess because I have seen multi-millions in improvements here in Ontario since 1996, purses 300% higher than they used to be, and racing handle at the same time be decimated (it's been cut in half) that I have no glee for the Aqueduct casino for the future of the sport.

With the folks in line at the racino today - all there to pull a lever - it tells us just how bad of shape we're in. Not to mention, now with a casino on the premises, when you hit a $500 tri in the last, you stop in at the machines on the way out and lose a few hundred, killing your churnable horse racing bankroll. It's one of the reasons why every track in existence since they were introduced in the mid-1990's has on track handle go kaput after putting a racino in.

Until places like NYRA put slots money into the demand side of the equation, we will be back in 5 years (just like everywhere else) wondering where the handle and fans went.

I spoke about this several years ago at both a marketing seminar and at subsequent horse racing wagering conferences - and was met with horror at the marketing conference and nods of the heads at the wagering conferences.

Horror from marketers, and nods of heads from the industry that the policy is very wrong. But in New York, this long-failed policy has not changed a bit.

Boy I'm cheery, eh?

On to more happy items!

Tonight's Breeders Crown card starts at 6:30 and several of us will be chatting and playing along on twitter. You can follow me at @pullthepocket if you want. Unfollow me after and I won't be offended. Nothing offends me on twitter anyway; it's the only way you stay sane :)

My thoughts are below, and there are several other avenues for picks and strategy across the web.

What wins is free tonight (you just have to sign up) and their odds lines are good and (and unlike many other odds lines) are historically ROI flat to positive. Speaking of conferences, I presented with Dave from Whatwins on a "new wagers for horses racing in the 21st century" panel and he was just developing What Wins at that point - and it was working! Check them out.

VFTRG has his picks up. The DRF has some action.

The Sportsman had a roundtable of cappers picks, but for the life of me I can't find the link. If anyone sees it, pop it on the comments section. Edit: Here it is. Thanks Dave Briggs.

Good luck and hope to chat with you later. Enjoy your day.

Breeders Crown, Here We Go

2011-10-28T16:06:00.001-04:00

Tomorrow evening at 6:30 starts a big night at Woodbine. I'll take a look at a few races here, and if you have any horses you like (or want to call me a big dummy for my selections) please comment below.

As usual, since everyone can read the odds board and know who the chalk bets and likely winners are, I will probably focus (and bet) several price horses.

Race 1 - Mares Open Trot

This one is a real head-scratcher for me. The wiseguy horse and software horse (we were on her here on Hambo Day at a nice price) is Jersey As. I can't do it, because I can't bet short priced horses who are going to get away 7th or worse. I am going to go bomb shopping here if the on-track looks cooperate. Emmylou Who has looked lame in the back her last two in the PP, but she's raced well. If she looks any better tomorrow, I am on her. Pembroke Heat Wave has not been bad all year and has been here at McNair's farm for awhile. After Friendly Amigo brushed and crushed in Lex I thought she might be sore. After a couple of weeks (and with a driver change people will fade) I might have a look at her at a bomb price. Great race for betting.

Bet: Emmylou Who if she does not look hikey.

Race 2 - 2YO Filly Trot

This race starts and ends with the chalk for me. When she lost to Win Missy B she was not at her best, and the other time the latter was a runaway who somehow stayed. Miss Paris, I think, was not at her best last time, and if I chuck WMB, I will use her underneath. For a Dancer trots like a little metronome.

Bet: Check Me Out onto Miss Paris, For a Dancer and Real Babe

Race 3 - 2YO Filly Pace

This is a good race which is very deep. If Economy Terror comes in soft, and is well bet, the exotics might light up the board. I can't play the chalk, without a trip over the track. From there, you have a lot of possibles. Handsoffmycookie is a wise guy horse who can win. Ed Hart might have Pirouette fresh. Shelliscape and Big McDeal are solid stock. Is Angel Sent getting better? Off a month off she aired, and if she was not tight for that, she may be sitting on a huge one. I may go way off the board here and bet Podges Lady. She was sick for the SAGL final and she's some stock. Now, cue the chalk to win by ten.

Bet: Podges, for a flyer longshot. Handsoffmycookie if over 4-1.

Race 4 - 2YO Colt Pace

Who shows up and races big? The 3,4,5,7 and 8 are all likely winners and this may be a trip race. I am not a huge Sweet Lou fan, and Rock n Roll Dance (whom I love) will be heavily bet. I may go to the wiseguy horse here, Hurrikane King Cole (who is 20-1 ML and won't be near that come post time), and way off the board with Mark Harder's colt from the outside.

Bet: Hurrikane King Cole to win. Longshot: Lawgiver Hanover

Race 5 - 2YO Colt Trot

There are no superstars here, and that makes it a good betting race. The 3,4,5 are good horses and one of them is likely. Prestidigtation was good in his last with a no shot trip. If the crowd is fading Takter as a driver too much I may play him, but I expect he won't be in my price range. I don't mind two longshots on the ticket. Little Brown Fox is not a bad colt, grabs Campbell and was boxed in his last. Dan Daley's colt, Royal Shyster, looked good last time and had trot. Swing for the fences?

Bet: Little Brown Fox, at a price

Race 6 - Mares Pace

I feel Anndrovette will be very overbet. I am leaning towards taking a poke on Western Silk or Chancey Lady at prices. The former had pace last time, and the latter throws in a huge race now and again off a subpar line (I bet her in Lexington when she almost stole it at 9-1).

Bet: WS and CL on top of the 1567 and 10

Race 7 - Open Colt Trot

The fun begins. San Pail has had it pretty easy this season and one wonders if this is the race he is tested hard. The European horses add a big wrench into the mix, and I don't know what to do with them, although I know Rapide is fast. I still love Hot Shot Blue Chip as a big bomb here (I bet him at Lex, trying to beat San Pail last month and he was great).

Bet: I'll probably watch and enjoy, or bet a few bucks across on Hot Shot Blue Chip. Congrats to Moira and Tom working the phones to make this a great race.

Race 8 - 3YO Filly Pace

Drop the Ball beats herself only.

Bet: DTB onto Swinging Beauty and Strike an Attitude for an action bet

Race 9 - 3YO Colt Trot

Chapter Seven won with his ears pricked in a 27 last Q. That's enough for me. I watched the Man of Many Missions replay three times and he still looks off to me.

Bet: Chapter Seven if over 2-1

Race 10 - 3YO Filly Trot

Cedar Dove is very good, but I am going off the board with Crys Dream. I think she will be super tight tomorrow off her last. I honestly am not in love with anyone else. The whole field looks kind of spent to me.

Bet: Crys Dream onto all, all onto Crys Dream

Race 11 - 3YO Colt Pace

What to do here? If you bet Big Bad John, Alsace Hanover and Roll With Joe, or take a $10 tri box, I can't argue much. I think the winner comes from one of those three. This, along with the Open Trot, is the highlight of the night for me as a fan.

Bet: I am a spectator, unless one of those three reach playable odds.

Race 12 - FFA Pace

This race begins and ends with We Will See for me, off a tremendous prep. I am tired of getting beat by this colt. I might use One More Laugh behind him, because that horse can throw a big one once in awhile, and might be sharp tomorrow.

Good luck everyone!

Breeders Crown Free Program is Out

2011-10-27T21:31:00.003-04:00

This weekend's Breeders Crown (Crown, not Cup!) program is out, and it's free. You can get it here.

It's the first time all Breeders Crown races are on the same card north of the border. Going through the races (I will throw up some analysis later if anyone wants to chat about them) and replays, I am finding some interesting tilts.

Last year we had a couple of bomb winners, but the chalk was pretty poor in a lot of cases. At first glance this year's chalk look more like Woodbine in '09 where we had a steady parade of cheap prices. After looking at it a little more closely, the two year old races might be worth betting, and with the weather report (cool with a chance of rain), it may add a little bit of intrigue for bettors.

Anyhow, just a note above on the PP link, for anyone who doesn't know they can get one gratis.

More Protection as a Business Model - Texas to Ban Out of State ADWs

2011-10-27T10:38:00.000-04:00

Hurting industries often do curious things.

"The Texas Racing Commission has begun informing out-of-state wagering companies that it's now illegal to accept online horse or greyhound bets from Texas."

Apparently, the following internet websites may be forced to no longer allow Texas residents as customers.

"According to the TRC, letters were sent to Twinspires.com (a Churchill Downs affiliate), XpressBet, AmWest Entertainment, USOff-Track, eBet, Premier Turf Club, The Racing Channel, PayDog and Racing2Day."

If they don't comply? They will apparently be snoozin' in the grey-bar hotel.

"The letter concluded that the TRC "may pursue criminal action against violators under Chapter 7 of the Texas Penal Code.""

This is not dissimilar to what happened a few years ago in Arizona. And we all know how that worked out.

Other than drive customers offshore - you know, the ones who wish to patronize racing via that brand-new invention that might even catch on, a personal computer - I am not sure what good can come out of this.

I'm sure consumers would not like a "Texas Book and DVD commission" to make it illegal to buy an item on Amazon.com. Or a "Texas Stock Commission" make you go to a downtown Houston brokerage office to purchase 100 shares of Microsoft instead of clicking a mouse.

That's silly right?

Not in horse racing. In horse racing it's considered a pro-growth policy.

Accountability for Business Decisions

2011-10-24T18:48:00.002-04:00

Over the last couple of months we have followed the Netflix story here on the blog, and used it from time to time as an illustration showing the difference between the business world and the racing world.

For those who have not followed along, the story is pretty straightforward: The online video streaming company raised prices in Q2, much to the ire of its customers, and they paid for it, as their stock dropped from around $300 to $220. This loss of market cap was mainly due to future quarter projected earnings. The market said - you need to grow eyeballs, and raising your prices is not the way to do it. The company was punished.

After the exacta of annoying your customers, and your shareholders, a mea culpa was issued on their blog. They backtracked some, and tried to re-energize.

However, today Netflix's quarterly earnings came out. The price hike, although good for a short term revenue bump (sound familiar high takeout proponents?), killed their subscriber growth.

Netflix reported 21.45 million streaming subscriptions at the end of the third quarter and 13.9 million subscribers to its DVD-by-mail business. The company said total U.S. subscriber base by the end of its third quarter was 23.79 million—below expectations of roughly 24 million. Netflix lost 810,000 subscribers between the second and third quarters.

Further, growth does not look good for the next quarter, based on churn rate:

More worrisome, however, was that in the latest period, churn rate in the U.S.—a measure of customer cancellations and free subscribers—rose to 6.3% from 3.8% a year earlier and 4.2% in the prior quarter.

There was hell to pay and they were punished again. The stock, afterhours, dropped 27% to $85, down from over $300 only a couple of months ago. Gone are executive bonuses, millions in stock options, big valuations, and good press. Takeover chatter (i.e. throw the bums out) and downgrades are coming fast and furious.

If we compare this accountability and speed of such with our sport, there simply is no comparison. Racing makes Netflix look like Apple. Our sport has lost upwards of half its customers, and revenues from betting are falling and have been falling since about 2003. California, perhaps a perfect example, raised prices on January 1st this year (doing what Netflix did), and handle has fallen about $200 million dollars. Yet, California continues along the same path, making excuses for the losses, with zero accountability. Most of our so-called "racing press" even gives them a pass.

Lose half your business over a decade? Raise your prices in 2011 and lose $200 million in handle? Ah, it's the economy and no one likes racing. Don't blame us.

During the Netflix earnings call this evening the CEO responded:

CEO Reed Hastings and Chief Financial Officer David Wells acknowledged the anger sparked by its change of pricing plans for subscribers. "We've hurt our hard-earned reputation, and stalled our domestic growth."

That's something we will likely never hear in our sport, ever, because without accountability, there is no need to respond. It's a big reason why we're in the state we're in.

Breeders Crown Notes

2011-10-24T08:41:00.001-04:00

The elims this past weekend are complete. A lot of the time there is very little news in the elims, but this time there certainly was.

The biggest story was in the 3YO FP division, where See You At Peelers confirmed that her condition is not very good, and like we see in racing quite often, a new star is starting to emerge.

SYAP again stopped like she was hit by a Hong Kong poison dart. They tried her and she simply had no response to pressure. I would think we've seen the last of her, but if they do decide to race next season, maybe an extended layoff can do the trick. Regardless, when she was right, she is a tremendously classy mare; one of the best we've seen in awhile.

Taking the baton is Drop the Ball. She always had an amazingly quick brush, and you knew you were looking at a quick horse, but she had serious trouble putting it all together. I don't think she's there quite yet, but all you can say is wow. Her Canadian record was effortless, and she finished the race looking around, completely shut down. She's the type of mare who gets good, and might stay good because she seems to be learning what she's out there for. I can't wait to watch her as a 4YO.

Chapter Seven looked as good as a horse can look, as well. He finished with a 27 kicker, and pricked his ears no less than three times. Sometimes horses finish races tired (and Gr I race at 9f in thoroughbred racing for sure!), and at times they finish wanting more. He was the latter.

Cedar Dove looks like the chalk in the filly trot final. She won easily. Crys Dream prepped well however. In the other elim, Pierce took his elimination life in his hands, almost getting boxed, but he weaved through and beat a horse who seems to not like to win.

Man of Many Missions had an easy time of it after Big Rigs broke in the pocket, but he was tired.

If you are looking for a good prep race, We Will See did it. He was on fire in the stretch and that should help him next time.

Prep thought 2 - Can there be a bigger stiffaroni than David Miller put on Big Bad John? You are 1-2, and you should at least try a bit Dave, for the people who pay your salary (hint - bettors). I am a fan of elims, and we know the risk, but holy smokes.

Twitter post on BBJ's elimination from a bettor:

If you can tell anything from the mares pace elim, you are a better person than I. That was a boat race.

Early in the year I did not think Idyllic and Pretty Katharine would have good years. I think I was just too early on my Idyllic prediction. She is beginning to look like I thought she would in July.

I am pretty sure that was the prep that Ed Hart hated. Roll With Joe was brutalized, and he still finished well. If he races like that next week, one might expect everyone else is racing for second.

How about the last late pick 4 on Saturday? They might sum up why people have a hard time with harness racing. Brodies Song is a career 42 times pacer. 42 times he went to the back, devoid of speed. In start 43 from the nine post, he fires to the front, goes three and four wide getting there, and airs. Can we have a twitter feed or something letting punters know when some driver is going to try something like that? He was 2-1 behind the gate, and he might have been 1-5 if we knew he was leaving. Although I don't think it was a set-up to cash a ticket, or that anything nefarious was going on, I don't blame any bettor in simo-land watching that race and thinking our sport is fixed.

Fitz Z Tam in the last was a head scratcher, although I did use him in the pick 4's. He had shown absolutely nothing if you are a race replay watcher. Saturday he fired home in 26 and change and won easily.

With the aforementioned Big Bad John stiffaroni added to the mix, it makes one wonder. The game is very tough, especially when we are looking at monster pick 4 rakes. With 1-2 shots going to second last off the gate, a non-leaver turning into a speed freak, and a horse who looks like he has been finishing slower than a fat man at a marathon winning by daylight in three of four legs, we are up against it.

Despite that, we are looking at some excellent races this weekend. I did not say too much about the first evening's tilts, because I still have to watch replays.

Have a good Monday everyone.

A Yearling Sale Unlike Many Others

2011-10-22T11:45:00.000-04:00

I’ve been to dozens of yearling sales, but this one wascertainly different.

On Friday evening I headed out to central Nova Scotia, on beautifulsideroads through places like Pugwash, Wallace and the Wentworth Valley. Thedestination was Truro, where there was a yearling sale.

“Breeders usually lose a few thousand a horse, and ownersare lucky to not lose about the same”

I read that earlier about this, and other salesout this way.

The purses are simply not there, the bet is not thereeither. We’re not talking Ontario, Pennsylvania or Indiana, where slots drivepurses (and yearling prices) into the stratosphere.

Anyone who has been to Harrisburg or Lexington for a salesees the who’s who of harness racing. $300k colts with Jerry Silva or JeffSnyder’s name on them are commonplace. Syndicates are formed, planning is intense. Ifsomeone hits the jackpot it could mean millions.

As I walked into this venue I quickly learned it is not thatkind of sale. What I saw was refreshing. There were no deals being made, no$80k cars in the lot. There was no electronic sales board. There were no clearance forms or credit items just in case you stiff someone ("Oh no honey, if you have a check that's just fine", the lady told me). There were a bunch of folks, who seemed to know eachother. There was hot dogs, and $3 beer. The shedrow was tight, mucky and a little dim. And there were horses – only 44 of them - some from sires Ihave personally never heard of.

After moving the tack from Toronto to the east coast (on apart time basis) I decided I wanted to support the local harness community andhave some fun in the summers by buying a yearling. This sale exemplified exactlywhy I made the decision: There is zeropressure to pay stakes payments for the Metro or the Jug. There is littlepressure to meet $4000/month training bills. There is little pressure onanything. There is a bunch of peoplewanting to partake in harness racing, because they like harness racing.

I glanced at several in the book and I liked five or six ofthem. Brandon’s Cowboy as a sire made some sense to me, because I liked thehorse, and he is the top sire out here from only a couple of crops. He has somechops. In addition there was a Four Starzz Shark selling. I bet him about50 times and liked him as well; he has produced some nice horses from only acouple of crops. The rest I had no idea about, to be quite honest.

"Bite Reflex" Four Starzz Shark out of a Western Hanover mare

It was time to go see the colts and fillies up close justlike you’d do in Lexington. Not really knowing a fetlock from a padlock Itrusted a trainer named Ross to have a look-see at them walking, and shufflingaround. There were a few that stood out: A couple of Brandon’s Cowboy filliesand a colt, and a filly by Fourstarzz Shark. I particularly liked the Four Starzz filly because I saw herstumble and not lose her feet, and she looked at me and winked. That’s usually not a good sign for mypocketbook.

The bidding at the sale, was again, nothing like I am usedto. It started sometimes at $500, and moved in $100 increments a great deal ofthe time. The average price usually ended up around $2000 or $3000, and it tooka while to get there!

That damn Brandon’s Cowboy filly looked so good in thepre-walk, she looked at me, and was so well mannered. She was not at the top ofthe list and my trainer friend was getting a beer. But I bid to $5200. I had tostop since I didn’t want to spring it as a post-beer surprise to thetrainer. She was hammered down for 6k.

"Hold on Tight" A Cute little colt in the back shedrow

The Four Starzz filly was my first purchase as a local. The bidding was less than I thought. I bet the lack of a maternal line scared some folks off, but I thought she had a chance, and was worth it. Not long after this, "Inside the Pylons" on twitter said her mom brought $50k as a yearling at Lexington awhile back. That can't be a bad thing.

A half dozen hip numbers later, what I thought may be the saletopper was heading to the ring.

“Let’s take a look” I said, and my cohorts agreed.

I figured the handsome little colt with a nice new potential cross might bring 8 or 9, but the bidding stalled andhe was purchased. Not really planning on it, I was the last person with the hand up, and my one yearlingexcursion was now two.

I spent a few bucks, and I had a great time.

“Breeders usually lose a few thousand a horse, and ownersare lucky to not lose about the same”

Why do people keep doing it? I don’t know, but this morning Idon’t have a regret in the world.

Notes: I missed the first night of elims for the BC so I have some replay watching to do. I should have some notes up this weekend if you want to chat about them. As usual, free programs are up.

Cooling Off

2011-10-20T21:22:00.001-04:00

On July 31, 2011 supertrainer Lou Pena was given the boot from Yonkers Raceway. Sometimes in this type situation a trainer may "cool off", other times they keep right on winning. I figured I would look at a few numbers to see what happened this time.

At Yonkers, before he was sent packing, his numbers were pretty remarkable.

He had 242 wins and sported a 39% win percentage. His "UTRS", or batting average, was a super-duper 0.535. Off the claim he was 18 for 26 (no not a typo) in 2011, for a 69% win rate.

Since Lou cannot (officially) race at Yonkers any longer, I figured I would look at his two main stomping grounds since the Yonkers ban, to see what's been happening. Has he cooled off, or is he humming right along?

At Pocono, where he seems to be hanging his hat most now, his stats are very un-Pena like.

Since August 1st he sports 122 trips to the gate, with 20 winners, yielding a 17% win percentage. His UTRS is 0.296, about average for an everyday stable. He has claimed six horses since August 1st, winning one, for a 16.7% win percentage. Before August 1st at Pocono he had a 37% win percentage and claimed 10 horses, winning with 7 of them for a 70% hit rate.

At Chester, where he is also doing some racing, the numbers are near identical, pre and post ban (0.450UTRS before August 1st and 0.440 after), with 2/2 versus 2/4 off claim numbers.

When you add the numbers together, it is clear there is some cooling off going on. It'll be interesting to see what develops, if anything, with this story.

Notes:

I mentioned I was surprised to see Peelers entered in the Breeders Crown off that poor qualifier. I asked the press if they might ask Takter if he zipped her in a training mile which told him she was better, because that was (I thought) an explanation that might make some sense.

I shoulda known better: Kathy at harnessracing.com was probably already on the case - "Trainer Jimmy Takter told harnessracing.com Wednesday morning that it was a “last-minute decision” to enter See You At Peelers in Saturday night’s Breeders Crown eliminations at Woodbine Racetrack, and he did so only after the 3-year-old filly pacer went an “awesome” training mile at his New Jersey farm early Tuesday morning."

I hope she's back, and I don't expect handicappers to give much to the "she's short" excuse if she loses. With a 54.1 qualifier, a training track zip, and a 151 mile two weeks ago, she should be more than fine. Takter's horses are almost never short.

I was reading harnesseye, and the "bounce" is back! Even after it was reported that Peelers was ill (and has been for some time before and after the Meadows race) and long ago it was known Big Jim had ankle issues that flared up after every start causing his early retirement, Capper Bob has stuck to the nasty-ass bounce theory for their performances.

"Three-year-old filly See You At Peelers had the first tough trip of her career at the Meadows recently, then was all-out against a much weaker field at Tioga last Sunday (September 4) and was disqualified when she lugged in and caused interference. Yes, even a win machine like See You At Peelers can bounce. I knew she would bounce but I still thought she'd win at Tioga, since it was a weak field."

"If you examine the career past performances of the now retired Big Jim, you can see that every time he went a big mile, be it a winning or losing effort, in his next start he bounced and went considerably slower. And Big Jim was a big, strong colt. If he bounced, you better believe that smaller horses and fillies are even more apt to bounce."

Oh my head. It appears that every sick horse and every lame horse that races bad "bounced". Someone should call the vets and tell them horse's don't need injections, cryo's, medications or anti-biotics when they are sick and lame, they just need an extra few days to recover so they don't "bounce". It sure would save us a boatload of money as horse owners. The bounce theory does have a place in harness racing, but using Peelers and Big Jim as examples of it, is ridiculous.

Want a free look at the early PP's for the Crown elims Friday and Saturday?

Speaking of the Harness Eye, despite the bounce stuff, there is a hell of a lot of good 'capping info on that site. Derrick's look at HOY is pretty good, and Bob's stuff is usually worth a look.

Enman is back on Twitter. The Woodbine/Mohawk/Greenwood and sometimes Hiawatha or whereeverthehellthereisatrack dude has tried a new name . @doubleplayball.

Have a good evening everyone.

Breeders Crown, October 19th, and Marketing

2011-10-19T12:49:00.002-04:00

The six million dollar Breeders Crown elims have been drawn and they are an interesting set of races, starting this Friday. The link contains program pages and entries.

The biggest shocker (for me) is that See You At Peelers is entered. She, coming off a sickness and a heart issue (and off a crawling qualifier) was not expected to be here, but she is. I am assuming Takter zipped her in 52 or 53 Monday and made a decision, and I hope someone asks him about it.

Next Saturday the finals will all be run on one card, and it is sure to be an entertaining evening.

I began to wax a little melancholic this morning when I heard on CNBC it is the 24 anniversary of Black Friday, where the markets dropped precipitously, destroying about a half of a trillion of wealth. Growing up I learned life ain't free and not only do you have to go to work early, you have to invest early. With that, I tucked away as much work cash as a could as a kid in the stock market. By the age of 18 I amassed about $2500 in the markets. I had a 1st year class that fateful morning (Calculus in McLennan Physical, for U of T'ers out there) at 9:10. I overheard a rich kid chatting that the markets were going to collapse and at about 9:40 I went out to a pay phone and tried an old family friend who was a broker. Amazingly he answered, and told me my stocks were tanking big time. I went back to class, not thinking of advanced integrals, but of "should I try and put my meager savings into a bottom bounce".

That afternoon I bought about $500 more of stocks (money that I was going to use on my food card), and was completely broke.

I learned that day not to bottom fish, because I think it would have taken me until I was about 25 for my portfolio to be above what it was on October the 18th 1987. It didn't matter at that point I guess, because I was broke with a $9 an hour post-graduation job in an expensive city, and had sold what I could to pay rent a year or so before I was in the black.

I'll remember that day for a long time. I learned something and it wasn't from my math class.

One thing I learned in marketing over the years - it's in virtually every text book, but in recent history it is a huge part of writing web ads - is that your message has to be distinct and easy to understand. In the real world this is becomes apparent to me in many examples.

Three present day stories like Herman Cain, The Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street folks really exhibit this nicely, in my opinion. Mr. Cain, an also ran in the Presidential race, has vaulted to the lead in some polls with his "999" policy platform. I don't know how he feels about Iran, or the bailouts, or social issues, but I know about his "999". It's one message that is resonating and getting him noticed.

The Tea Party had one simple message early on: There is too much debt. That resonated with people looking at a $150B deficit in 2008, and a $1.3 trillion dollar one in 2010. "Ya, I guess there is too much debt" many said. Easy peasy, lemon squeasy.

The OWS folks are for? I am not sure, and polls show I am not the only one. They are having a little trouble getting mainstream support right now from independents and apolitical types and it is not because I think they're bonkers or strange left wing radicals, it's because they have not shaped a simple modern message a la the Tea Party and Mr. Cain.

I find this apparent in horse racing, and I think it is our biggest marketing issue. If you see an ad for horse racing you might think the marketing departments are getting paid by the word. They try to jam every single feature or benefit in a lot of their ads, hoping something sticks. My advice, for what it's worth, is pick one. And stick to it.

Have a great Wednesday folks.

You Can't Regulate Risk

2011-10-17T14:14:00.001-04:00

Mark Davies today wrote about a betting conference he was attending, where the afternoon topic was betting integrity.

The session looked at somehow plugging an integrity hole, where Mark agrees it does more harm than good. You know the drill - there might someone, somewhere doing something to undermine the sport, so we must over-regulate the betting of the sport, or at the very least, shout it from the highest mountain.

But what concerned me about the session was the extent to which it – and so many sessions like it – served only to perpetuate myths which rapidly take on the status of fact in the public pysche.

The example proponents used to further their case for some sort of betting regulation was a potential situation at next year's Olympics: An athlete who "might finish third in a heat, in order to save him/herself for the final." This is the exact same argument we see in racing, primarily about eliminations in harness. The colt or filly's driver might not try as hard because he too has to save the horse for the Final. Harness racing has tried over and over again to regulate eliminations in some way.

Resistance is futile, because like an Olympic athlete saving himself, this is baked into the price with a risk component. Bettors ain't dumb.

If Usain Bolt is 1.15 to win his elim on merit, but at a meet in this exact same situation last year he tanked the quarterfinals, his price will probably be 1.35. Some bettors will look at it as a bargain, some as too risky and make their plays. If Rock n Roll Hanover is in an elim and he is off four weeks with a bad post, he may be 4-5 instead of 1-5. Some will roll the dice at a 45% implied probability, some will look elsewhere.

I agree with Mark. There is no need to regulate something that is an intimate component of the off price. That's why it's called gambling.

UK Jocks (Not Unexpectedly) Whine

2011-10-16T10:45:00.001-04:00

In the 1970's in the NFL, football was downright dirty. Players had tricks they used to get an edge that were right out of a scene from Braveheart. Clotheslining was legal, so was (said by one player I saw interviewed on the subject) 'jabbing your fingers into an opponents neck and grabbing his voicebox'. That sounds pleasant, huh?

At this time in the sports' history, highlight shows were popping up, and those highlight shows were becoming popular (only a portion of games were even shown in the early to mid 70's). The brutality of football and these laissez faire rules resulted in some very bad injuries, and some stomach turning episodes. To combat this, Rozelle had NFL Films never show, or distribute the brutal stuff - the dark side of the game would stay hidden, come hell or high water. Rozelle's reasoning was simple: Selling the game to new markets would be hampered if the brutality of it was not snuffed out.

After that policy not being overly successful (you can not stop progress and technology), the NFL, under his guidance, changed the rules. No more dirty stuff, no more clotheslines, no more head hunting. The players would be fined and suspended, no questions asked. Of course, the players hated this. They had plied their trade for years one way, and were asked to do something different.

Some of the excuses used against the changes came from them, and the old guard. One such argument was that fans loved the brutality, they cheered when big dirty hits occurred and changing the game would cause the game to suffer. Rozelle was a visionary, however. He knew that the people in the stands would always love football, and watch football. It was not about them, it was about the new markets that did care if they saw people get hurt, or possibly die right in front of their eyes. If they did not change the game those markets could not be sold to, using the relatively new medium of live sports on television.

It is clear that the policy worked. The NFL changed their demo from men, to men women and children. Changed it from an insular game in cities, to a game to sell the world. More people watch the Super Bowl than live in 80% of the world's countries. People tune in for the halftime show at a rate that tune in for some of the most popular television shows in existence. Football is still a brutal game, but if you ask the masses, the brutality of it is rarely mentioned. They changed the mindset within a generation.

In Ontario horse racing the whips were banned in some form several years ago. The participants went bonkers. "We know no other way", "we can't do this", "what about horse safety" and on and on. It was like the commission was not asking for a rule change, but a kidney.

Currently in the UK there is a change happening to the whip rules, along the exact same lines:

The regulations, announced by the BHA in September, come into force on Monday and limit a jockey on the Flat to seven strokes of the whip in the course of the race, while over jumps it can be used eight times. Under both codes, the whip can be used a maximum of only five times after the last obstacle/in the final furlong.

Failure to adhere to the new frequency limits will result in a minimum of a five-day suspension, replacing the previous minimum penalty of a caution.

Jockeys who pick up a ban of three days or more (for offences such as hitting a horse without giving it time to respond) can expect to lose their share of the prize-money and riding fee. It will also be an offence for any owner or trainer to reimburse the rider from their own share of the prize-money.

The jock's response to this: Someone call the whambulance. It's Ontario all over again - talk of strikes and being mad as hell and not taking it anymore. An extra-curious note: The old rule had a strike limit as well that they are simply bringing down, so this is not anything that new.

If it were the NFL or the NHL this episode would not even exist. The rule would be discussed and passed, and if a defencemen clutched and grabbed he would go to the penalty box. If he did it too much he'd be made an example of. If he didn't adapt, he'd be cut. If a lineman continued to clothesline, he too would be cut from his $2M a year job.

If you want to play in racing, you play by the rules and realize you are not bigger than the sport. If you can't count to seven or read a rule book, one would suggest a remedial math and reading class is in order. The alternative is to sell the Mercedes and dust off the resume for a $15 an hour job. There will be someone there ready to take your place, more than happy to follow the rules. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Strategery

2011-10-14T16:26:00.000-04:00

After listening to the Google earnings call last night I was amazed by some of the new, fresh ideas, in addition to the business savvy to meet earnings targets.

Conversely, racings strategy seems to be: Let's try and squeeze every penny out of our existing customer base, because we have no strategy to grow the customer base.

Read Jeff Platt's article on the new (and it appears "secret") idea from "Monarch" who controls many track signals you play via ADW.

I am a horseplayer advocate. I can’t sugar coat this for you. It is my opinion that if this goes through, and Monarch pulls track signals from ADWs, the result is nothing short of a knife in the back for horseplayers everywhere.

Controlling signals and raising rakes to grab more and more of a shrinking pie, while angering your best customers. Nice business strategy, boys.

With my wagering handle down about 80% from several years ago, sometimes I wonder why I continue with the other 20%.

Quick notes:

See You at Peelers qualified in 154.1 today with a last quarter a fat man carrying a sack of potatoes could come home in. She looks done for the year.

Melissa does what racing very rarely does: She econometrically modeled something: She studied synthetic handle with dirt handle for her thesis. Her conclusion? That synthetic track racing has been a drag on handles (although I doubt in a hugely tangible way). This should not be surprising (as every horseplayer nods his head). When we introduce something new, which is completely unmodelable and adds a new risk component as handicappers, we are going to avoid that risk. In the 1970's it was similar when the Meadowlands was introduced - the mile track variable left cappers scratching their heads and they continued to play Roosevelt. It took quite awhile for the Meadowlands to become King.

From someone (read: geeky racetrack dude) who did his thesis on Off-track betting's influence on On-track handle, I commend her :)

Blanchard on Trot radio. Way to go Greg. Western Fair opens its meet tonight.

Whatwins is free this month. Go to Whatwins.com and check it out!

Have a nice Friday everyone.

Will Dutrow End Up Like Bill Robinson? I'd Bet on It

2011-10-12T18:27:00.001-04:00

The news was fast and furious today as The New York State Racing and Wagering Board revoked trainer Richard Dutrow's license for 10 years. After sixty four rulings, and public pressure, I guess they have had enough.

This, in my opinion, completely parallels what happened with super-trainer Bill Robinson about ten years ago in Ontario. The perennial training leader not only had whispers surrounding his horses' performances, he also had a string of violations. In 2004 after another positive, the ORC and Woodbine as well said enough is enough. He was fined $100,000 and thrown out for five years. In addition, Woodbine ruled him off the grounds so he could not train during appeals, and went to court with all guns blazing to defend their right to do it.

WEG head David Willmot:

“Gamblers are paranoid and more often than not are convinced that something funny is going on. If we as an industry do not have their confidence we’ll lose them as customers and we are doing everything we can to be a customer driven company. Perception is so important. "

What happened with Mr. Robinson? It's been about what you or anyone would've expected. His son Brett took over the majority of his stable - training for many of the who's who in racing, because he won just like his dad did. Up until 2007 rolled around that is. He was nabbed with EPO and he joined his father, with a ten year ban.

Not long after, with Bill still training a very small string, his former assistant trainer took many of his old clients, yearning to not lose the winning magic, and the vast riches it affords them.

He too was caught with EPO and banned for ten years.

If reciprocity takes hold, I expect we might see similar in the Dutrow case. He will fight it. His clients will search for another trainer or an assistant that can turn horses around on a dime. It may take awhile, but when commissions and the betting public have said they are through with you, most times they tend to mean it, and do what they can to make it stick.

I think Mr. Dutrow's career as we know it is over, and I doubt we'll ever see it like it was, no matter how hard he fights.

We Can Learn from Business 101

2011-10-10T08:33:00.001-04:00

courtesy pcworld.com

In racing, many lament its inability to think on its feet, or listen to its customers and respond in a timely fashion. For those who follow business outside the sport, we see such things each day.

Less than a month ago online streaming company Netflix announced that they were restructuring their offering by splitting the DVD rental business and the streaming business in two. In addition, they forced a price hike on customers, letting them know that the hike in DVD rental costs would be spun off to their streaming catalogue allowing them to expand the shows offered.

Customers were incensed. On chat boards, on facebook and everywhere else they did not want to login twice, be forced into the new DVD business (called "Qwikster"). As well, the share price was hammered.

Fast forward only one month. Just moments ago, Netflix has backed off their plans to split the offerings in two. They have added hundreds of new shows, TV's and news in their content since announcing the hike (delivering on what they promised), and lastly they announced to customers that pricing hikes will be a thing of the past. As an added bonus, the tech savvy company did not announce this via a 1947-type newswire service, but directly on its blog via a post from its CEO:

We’ve recently added hundreds of movies from Paramount, Sony, Universal, Fox, Warner Bros., Lionsgate, MGM and Miramax. Plus, in the last couple of weeks alone, we’ve added over 3,500 TV episodes from ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, USA, E!, Nickelodeon, Disney Channel, ABC Family, Discovery Channel, TLC, SyFy, A&E, History, and PBS.

It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs. This means no change: one website, one account, one password… in other words, no Qwikster..... we are now done with price changes.

Yes, in one month, a multi-billion dollar market cap company, with 25 million subscribers has changed business strategy on a dime as a direct response to customers.

In racing - in places like California and elsewhere who have angered customers - we wait and wait and wait. And more than likely we quietly and unceremoniously leave.

Netflix shares are up to $130.20, or 10.92% in premarket trading.

Sunday Notes

2011-10-09T09:00:00.001-04:00

It's Thanksgiving weekend here in the Tundra, but there is no Tundra. I went for the morning coffee on the deck with a sweater on, and ditched the sweater. It's about 21C/70F here and there is not a cloud in the sky. What a weekend!

Last night at the Red Mile we had some good racing, and the meet - despite harness racing (and racing in general losing its edge - is amazingly interesting. Strike An Attitude who always had mucho talent, has begun to put it together late in the year. She won in 48.4, off some weird internal fractions set by Drop the Ball. I think the catalyst in the win might have been Idyllic. She is a crazy mare and when she ran over top Gingras' helmet it appears he thought he was going slow and sped up the second quarter in a stunning 26.2. Internal fractions that are not close to even usually sets it up for a horse sitting just off the pace.

I've been watching Keeneland as I do each spring and fall. Not only does Nicholson and crew do a fine job with their festival atmosphere, they do their best to help bettors. It is so nice to see a meet like Keeneland's each year.

I got to travel around small town Nova Scotia yesterday for really the first time. We were dropping off our foster dog to a new home in Antigonish (near Cape Breton) and the drive was so beautiful. I got to see the St. FX campus and it brought back memories for me (each fall until I was about 30 I felt like I should be in school). It's a really nice little campus and looked so hospitable. When we met the new hopeful owners for the pooch, it turns out the father of the family is a professor at the school.

Speaking of the area, since I am spending more and more time here and I've always beena "buy local" type guy, I am considering buying a yearling colt. I missed the PEI sale Friday evening and I wish I did not. There was a Blissful Hall colt who was a half to Future Destiny that only went for $6500. If you look at the sales prices it makes you wonder - how do these folks make any money? I think the short answer is that they don't. This part of the world is truly for the love of the game.

Bills-Eagles today. Ever since I was a kid we got the channel two feed from Buffalo so I grew up watching the Bills. Sometimes I have cheered for them, sometimes not. Today I will be a Bills fan. I asked my dog who he was cheering for and he said "Buffalo" so that makes two of us.

With the Red Mile going and a ton of good meets in the tbreds happening now, the $50k guarantee at Woodbine last evening had to be squeezed. Handle is about critical mass and there is simply not enough critical mass in harness.

Ken Middleton reported on Twitter that American Jewel suffered a sesamoid injury in her last and will be sidelined.

Enjoy your Sunday everyone.

The Definition of Irony

2011-10-05T18:53:00.000-04:00

About ten months ago here was an ad being run by Santa Anita (and Cal Racing) at the start of their meet on a major website, in support of a takeout hike:

Fast forward to today: Here's that same track at the start of this meet, this time running an ad promoting the virtues of low takeout.

It appears that a $250 million dollar handle loss is starting to sink in at the marketing department.

Three Heat Drama in Futurity

2011-10-03T16:42:00.000-04:00

The standardbred breed is known for its kind, docile nature and its toughness. Horses can go a big trip three days before a race to sharpen up, a three minute mile two hours before post time, a two minute mile an hour before post time, and then race. So, when we see a rare three heat effort, it is no surprise the horses can put on a show. That's what happened yesterday in what amounted to a match race between Man of Many Missions and Dejarmbro for the Kentucky Futurity crown at the Red Mile.

It was an exciting a race as you'd ever want to see.

Saturday/Sunday Racing Action

2011-10-02T08:54:00.001-04:00

Here are some news and notes that caught my eye this weekend (so far!):

Short fields makes for some pretty awful racing, but when you are watching excellent horses do their thing it makes it a whole lot easier to watch. Yesterday at Belmont we got to see Uncle Mo look sound, happy and impressive in his win. Ditto Havre De Grace and Stacelita.

At the Red Mile last night we got to see similar. Although the purses for these events are not juiced, horsemen and horse owners made the drive to the storied track to race, and it was a great night to spectate. San Pail stamps himself (again) as the best trotter in the land with his victory. And what about Drop the Ball? She is quite simply (when on her game) freakish. In the Allerage for older pacers, two of the hardest hitting horses in all of racing were noses apart, with We Will See beating Foiled Again.

I thought the freshening of early year standout Arch Madness might do the trick, but no dice. He could not sprint with San Pail. In the fillies race Idyllic again showed just how hot she is when she has to be fired up early. She was a complete runaway.

I wish the Greater Sudbury Pace was on youtube. I do not think I have ever seen a horse go a tougher trip than Piece of the Rock. He was seconds better than the field, but with the 8 post and being four wide to the quarter and three wide to the half took its toll.

Eric P - commenter, Canadian bettors advocate and fan/bettor of both breeds - joins twitter. He's at Epo13. With a name like that he should last longer than your average twitterite.

Today: The Kentucky Furity at the Red Mile.

Today: Balmoral has another carryover in its 15% pick 4. Get handicapping as the pool will again be huge.

Today: The Arc. Early betfair odds below:

How to Land Poker Players? Try Blockbuster & Twitter

2011-09-29T20:12:00.001-04:00

Not long after the Department Of Justice started shutting down poker sites in the US, it was surmised on some blogs and chat boards that plan of action from racing to land poker players should be front and center, and expected swiftly. Since that time we have heard very little from racing on how they might try to put in place such a plan, or even if they are thinking about it. Without a league office, money and some will, I guess no one is overly surprised.

I was struck with just how different it is in other businesses and we received a nice example of that this past week.

Netflix (the online streaming company, and former IPO darling) raised prices last month, much to the dismay of their customers, and they suffered mightily. Their stock dropped from about $220 since last month, closing today at about $113.

Like we see all too often however: One man's crisis is another man's opportunity.

Enter Netflix competitor Blockbuster and their new owner.

Sensing an opening last week - not in a month, or after they formed a committee - they got rolling.

"The decision by Netflix to raise prices on its DVD and video streaming rental packages did more than kick off the company’s slide in terms of customer happiness (and share price). It gave rival Blockbuster a rare opportunity to strike back, Twitter-style."

On September 19th, the day Netflix was getting clobbered for the first time:

Blockbuster started a new Twitter contest, promising a free year of service for the four best Netflix breakup stories.
In some cases Blockbuster has used direct messages—DM in Twitter parlance—to entice users—preferably those with a large Twitter followings–to promote Blockbuster offers in return for free subscriptions.
Blockbuster sponsored the word “Qwikster” on Twitter. When users searched Twitter for Qwikster, Blockbuster messaging would be the first to pop up in the search category. (Netflix hastily started a new arm for DVD rentals called "Qwikster", but failed to land the twitter account)
The team has also directly interacted with 150 thousand people in its #helloBlockbuster campaign.

As the WSJ article notes (the article is a good read) - they did not do everything right. But they did something.

Customers do not fall in your lap, they have to be earned through hard work. In today's world of streaming movies and DVD's the response is swift - almost immediate. Poker was shut down in April, and we're still waiting for racings response.

Raw Talent, What about the Playa & Some Depressing Odds

2011-09-28T17:36:00.003-04:00

Jim Takter updated everyone on the health of See You At Peelers via Trot radio. It appears she had a hard to detect lung infection, but is "still not right" according to Takter. He trained her in 51, with a heart monitor.

How can a horse train in 51 and be not right? Because she's a superstar and there are good 51's and bad 51's when you are dealing with horses like that. I would have loved to seen her in the Jug if she was right; she would've had a good chance against that group, in my opinion.

There is a large carryover tonight at Balmoral Park and it is sure to be a record pool. HANA has some links to selections and a pdf of tonight's program.

A couple of years ago New York raised takeout on some exotics to pay for the New York City OTB's. The OTB's are now gone, the takeout hike is still there, and slots are online with over $30 million going to purses at Aqueduct next meet. Where's the player in all this? You guessed it, nowhere. When handle is down several years from now I am pretty sure someone will say "with all these great purses, I wonder why we aren't doing better?"

The Ontario Racing Commission, who presided over the same mechanism with slots in this province had to do a shifty change of course after ten or so years of handle losses (they too - along with the rest of the industry up here - thought big purses would result in rising handles). They developed a new plan on race dates and what horses can enter where (at times the best horses would be going to tracks with zero handles, and jogging at 1-9). So far it is a moderate success.

While all the cash goes to purses - like everywhere else in slotsville - non-skill gambling games seem to flourish. How they do it, I have no firm idea, but then again:

In a 2006 survey, 30 percent of people without a high school degree said that playing the lottery was a wealth-building strategy.

That might explain it.

Hitting a superfecta into a 26% rake - over time - will probably make you go broke. But for the lotto player, it tends to be even faster. Check this simulation and see how you do. Man, that is depressing.

Google Begins to Allow Some Gambling Ads

2011-09-26T12:39:00.004-04:00

Starting tomorrow, September 27th, Google will allow some gambling ads for those who have opted into Adsense. This is a sea-change for the search giant, despite loosening of some rules previously.

In general:

"Google is allowing advertising of online scratch games run by state, national or Indian reservations and national or state lotteries. It also will allow the advertising of “bricks and mortar” gambling locations and fantasy sports contests."

For racing, let's look at the good. It appears that companies like Churchill Downs, Woodbine and others can create campaigns and have their ads appear if they so wish. As well, since campaigns can be geo-targeted, they might be able to target potential on-track customers (e.g. Churchill After Dark will be able to run a campaign targeted to the greater Louisville area).

However (here comes the bad), there are very few racing websites when we compare it to the number of casino and card playing sites. As well, the casino industry (and the state) has no trouble spending money digitally and otherwise on marketing (casino's can spend upwards of 20% of revenues on marketing, while racing spends 1.7%). Fantasy sports companies are equally tech-savvy. So one might surmise, when we add up the good and the bad, we're behind the curve.

"Moneyball" - Not Just for Baseball

2011-09-25T19:49:00.000-04:00

Michael Lewis has written many good books and articles, but arguably his best work is Moneyball about the Oakland A's rise to prominence due to "Sabermetrics". The best seller was made into a movie starring Brad Pitt, and by many accounts, it is sure to be a hit.

Sabermetrics is pretty simple, despite the scary-math name. Via Wikipedia:

"Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective, empirical evidence, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity".

This was a new way of looking at a ball player - through unpublished and proprietary statistics - which many believe can give a ball club an edge in evaluating talent. As we all know, the historical way to judge a player was by scouting, or evaluating published stats, like ERA's, slugging percentage and batting average.

As the movie and book shows, this new way of analyzing player strength was a hit. Oakland won 102 games that first season, with a tiny bankroll.

On Friday the Wall Street Journal published an article that looked back at the 2002 A's and how they changed the game. One of its several conclusions, was now that statistical measurement is commonplace, it's value is diminished. If a baseball player has a good "WOR", everyone knows he has a good "WOR" including their agents, and he will be drafted high, or traded for fair (or even over-fair) value.

The caveat with that, however, is that there still can be some value - if you are using a statistical measure that others have not figured out yet. Then you have a huge edge, and with that edge it pays to keep your mouth shut.

Are you thinking about handicapping as I am?

In 2008 I took a trip to Vegas and stopped by my favorite haunt - the Gamblers Book Shop. I bought a book that had 'all the top angles'. I took it home and studiously ran it through my database. Time after time, angle after angle, the ROI was under $0.85.

Recently I had a chat with a successful player and he said "it is becoming harder and harder to find value". I think that's true. You can work your butt off to find an edge, but there is a good chance that there are 100 or a 1000 other horseplayers doing exactly the same thing.

I saw a horse break bad, make up ground against a bias, and finish okay with it not in the charts
There is a sneaky good trainer change on the three horse in the fifth
The six horse in the 5th worked out/qualified better than it looks, because I was there

In 1990, these three horses might be 6-1, 4-1 and 11-1 respectively. Now we can watch that replay on youtube with a gaggle of others and get bias in less than 15 seconds with HTR or Jcapper. We don't have to collect old programs and use graph paper to chart trainer stats; they are at the bottom of the form and in countless software programs. Clocker reports are about as easy to get as a Starbucks coffee.

Those three horses are probably half those 1990 odds, and likely ROI negative bets.

Add to the fact that the main determinants of betting value - takeout and field size - are being raised, and decimated respectively, dumb money has been leaving the pools for slots, and pool sizes are shrinking. That leaves about an exciting a proposition as getting a root canal.

It's pretty tempting to throw up our arms and say there is little we can do to scrounge for value, but I think that's premature. There are people making money at this game on pure handicapping. It's just that a good many of them are doing things a little bit different. They are handicapping the horse yes, but they are fading obvious positives by being a contrarian, and are trying to find angles that no one is looking for.

Some examples that I know of:

Someone is betting supers, with a rebate, by throwing out chalk in the top two positions and concentrating on ticket construction only
Someone is fading every positive jockey/driver change because many are overbet
Someone is evaluating a "new pace" that every historical textbook says is probably wrong
Someone is charting bike changes in harness racing, because they are not listed in the program
Someone is crunching numbers, a la Sabermetrics, and coming up with profitable ROI where you look at the choices on paper and say "those horses look ugly"
Someone is creating models by eliminating every morning line favorite - throwing out 30% or so of the winners - as a starting point to making a play

From 2002 to 2004, some baseball general managers were paying up for players with high Sabermetric ratings. In 2005 and beyond, the value was pretty much gone. For years upon years in racing, we have bet commonplace angles and tried to get some winners. If we were good enough we might have even made some money with them. In the future, I believe the handicapping world will belong to those who buck convention, because they'll be the ones exploiting the only tote board value left.