tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post6315543798672870888..comments2021-05-08T11:44:38.265-04:00Comments on PTP: Handicapping: Money Management FundamentalsPull the Pockethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-89145482693157233282008-12-02T11:21:00.000-05:002008-12-02T11:21:00.000-05:00It takes time. If you keep track of your bets you ...It takes time. If you keep track of your bets you can see how you do at different odds levels. The longest shots are the hard ones, but you can see it over time and make an estimate.<BR/><BR/>Say you bet a certain type negative (that the public thinks is negative) horse on the turf that yields some prices that you like. If they are 20-1 and wins at a decent hit rate and you have an edge, well you would obviously bet more the larger the edge.<BR/><BR/>Longshots are really hard to predict though, so you have to be careful. A 5% hit rate says that 20-1 should be alright, but over time how do we really accurately know? Maybe the horse is really a 30-1 fair shot, which is a 3% or so hit rate which is very close to 5%. Generally with horses over 15-1 that I think I have an edge with I bet about 0.4% of my bankroll. That works for me and keeps me sane.<BR/><BR/>With shorter shots this does work well though - i.e. Kelly. Having a horse that hits at 40% of the time that is 33% (2-1) on the board is the bread and butter of these plays. You have to bet more on those ones of course.Pull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-9007811034729705242008-12-02T09:53:00.000-05:002008-12-02T09:53:00.000-05:00Questions about hit rates and "the edge".In order ...Questions about hit rates and "the edge".<BR/><BR/>In order for me to figure my hit rate with 15-1 shots or whatever, do I need to paper bet every 15-1 shot I see or just the ones I like? If my handicapping keeps pointing me to the shorter priced horses, how do I then figure the longer priced ones?<BR/><BR/>Is it a function of just making the odds line for every race and whenever a horse is an overlay, making a paper bet on him and then keeping track of all those outcomes?Wind Gathererhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08374251665158760423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-42407860050652125532008-02-02T10:13:00.000-05:002008-02-02T10:13:00.000-05:00Another good post!Another good post!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com