tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post6331750945933376004..comments2024-02-01T00:37:24.768-05:00Comments on PTP: Quick Filly Starts the BuzzPull the Pockethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-9979718816743731932011-05-19T11:42:35.017-04:002011-05-19T11:42:35.017-04:00While visually impressive, a 4K claimer went almos...While visually impressive, a 4K claimer went almost as fast the very next race.<br /><br />I know......time doesn't mean anything.ITPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-88157995090937627052011-05-19T06:09:01.013-04:002011-05-19T06:09:01.013-04:00Buzz horse? Take a look at Tioga Downs race repla...Buzz horse? Take a look at Tioga Downs race replays from this past Sunday and check out race 6 and look at Feels Like A Fool's performance. I think it got lost being it wasn't at WEG and it was the Simpson Memorial. Granted, it wasn't the deepest field but it was his first start of the year. I think he will be interesting to watch this year.That Blog Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15487597769210721585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-19215993905744626612011-05-18T12:50:54.634-04:002011-05-18T12:50:54.634-04:00Hi C,
There are probably 10,000 factors that go i...Hi C,<br /><br />There are probably 10,000 factors that go into making a decision.<br /><br />In terms of Crys Dream you had to analyze a bunch of things - <br /><br />* is she tight enough to go 155.4?<br />* will Luc try in her first start?<br />* can she win in 54 right away, like she is capable of?<br />* can she go in 54 and win even if she does not have an all out effort?<br /><br />Turns out that 6-5 was a pretty nice price because unless the half crawled, she would have won the race. She was cranked and ready, and those trotters dont breathe the same air as she does.<br /><br />That's my 2 cents.<br /><br />PTPPull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-31150607874238001472011-05-18T12:15:31.086-04:002011-05-18T12:15:31.086-04:00LOL! Well, I'll tell you what, you come to my...LOL! Well, I'll tell you what, you come to my farm and I'll teach you how to take care of a horse, then I'll go to a racetrack and you can teach me how to win the $16,000 $1 superfecta? Ka-Ching!<br /><br />Seriously though, would these bettors making their picks based on the night's program information, like, racelines, scratches, qualifying times, etc.? Or are they reading the morning line odds/post time odds and determining their picks based on what everyone else is doing? I mean, Crys Dream went off at 6/5 without even making an appearance in 2011, was that because of her performance in 2010? After this, I'll give you a break from my questions! :)<br /><br />ClaudetteAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-71032075377572104862011-05-18T11:12:25.499-04:002011-05-18T11:12:25.499-04:00Hi Claudette,
I don't know how to take care o...Hi Claudette,<br /><br />I don't know how to take care of a horse, so we're even :)<br /><br />What you will notice with betting angles and items like post positions and driver changes is that the odds generally take care of the angle. <br /><br />In betting things like this we look at two items: Impact value and return on investment. <br /><br />If a horse moves from an 8 post off a decent line to a one post on a half mile track, his impact value (i.e. the win rate of that move) will be high. But, since everyone sees the post position move, the ROI will be low.<br /><br />Favorites by post position is a good exercise. A chalk might be from the ten post at Woodbine and some bettor might say "that's a weak chalk because of the post position". In reality it could (and often times is) a very strong chalk, because the odds board is not stupid. Favorite hit rates by driver and by post are pretty close.<br /><br />It's different when you are a professional/serious player and one that goes for a night at the track. You want winners when you go one day a month; when you play each day you want winners, but they have to pay right or you go broke.<br /><br />PTPPull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-19573215907517682452011-05-18T09:29:35.619-04:002011-05-18T09:29:35.619-04:00I think I'm a little out of my league here as ...I think I'm a little out of my league here as far as professional betting. I wish I knew as much as you guys when it comes to %'s and winning the big money supers, trifectas, and exactas. Can someone explain how heavy post positions play on the order of finish on a favorite? As well as switching up drivers everytime a particular horse hits the track? Thanks.<br /><br />ClaudetteAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-61916778449976956232011-05-18T09:05:36.486-04:002011-05-18T09:05:36.486-04:00ITP,
I think Woodbine made an error early on with...ITP,<br /><br />I think Woodbine made an error early on with the 20 center. I think they were spooked because they raised takeout on the bet from 14.75% to 25% and they needed to show growth in that bet despite the hike. 20 cents was an easy way to do that, which they did simultaneously.<br /><br />It is extremely difficult to take a shot at that bet because so much is covered. Add the fact that players in the US are betting dollars, and it adds another wrench.<br /><br />For harness it is not terrible, because they can usually card four fields of 9 or 10. For the thoroughbreds it is not very attractive at all, with short fields in the sixth, and sometimes 4th.<br /><br />R,<br /><br />I believe the charge is a piggy back for data charges. Any regular player for horses who backs (and does some laying) will be nowhere near a premium charge. Any professional player will not be either.<br /><br />I think with the cost of bet processing, and the need to hit growth targets, this tax made some sense from a corporate perspective. However it takes some traders out of the game, and Betfair needs traders too. One of the candidates for premium charges are folks who go green and have free longs of $5 or $10 on longer shots. That is a huge draw for some players/traders. Who doesn't want a free bet?<br /><br />PTPPull the Pockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05082676049275768769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-63478934570102417032011-05-18T08:51:45.308-04:002011-05-18T08:51:45.308-04:00I've never understood premium charges.... beca...I've never understood premium charges.... because I have not been charged a premium charge. I have made profit each year since 2004. I think it's there for backers and layers who play many markets and trade with a massively high % of small winning bets - or so I've read.<br /><br />RAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-30108449146732709762011-05-18T00:28:51.043-04:002011-05-18T00:28:51.043-04:00The 20 cent option definitely lowers the handle on...The 20 cent option definitely lowers the handle on bets like this. It allows the smaller bettors to bet less and FORCES the biggest bettors to bet less or not at all.<br /><br />Betfair charging winners a 20% surcharge on their profits is the scumbag move of the century. There is no justifiable reason for this. Screw Betfair!ITPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560898823512627114.post-14663972788819627462011-05-17T19:49:18.455-04:002011-05-17T19:49:18.455-04:00A couple of favs for this Friday's elimination...A couple of favs for this Friday's eliminations at Western:<br /><br />Stonebridge Tonic; Foiled Again; Monkey On My Wheel; Village Janus; Peach Martini and Lukes Sophie.<br /><br />A Preakness Mascot? Really? Clash of the Titans called.....<br /><br />Claudette :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com