Trust But Verify, Horse of the Year Chatter

Good day everyone!

Crunk and I had a twitter chat awhile back about the connections of top horses, and their thoughts when comparing horse A to horse B, where one (or even both of them) are their horses. In effect, we proclaimed we put little faith in these thoughts, and look towards speed figures, head to head match-ups, tops, bottoms and comparing performances to other historical horses to judge.

Generally, in cases like that, it comes down to trust but verify, because trusting alone sometimes involves some serious astroturfing.

Today, Bob Ehalt wrote the ultimate sausage making article about American Pharoah's big Triple Crown year. It is (in my view) one of the best articles you'll ever read about the inside-out's of the business.

In one part, we learn quite a bit about when a jock (driver) talks about a horse being better than another, or the best ever:

• “Victor tells people I didn’t give him breeding rights. Why should I? It’s not standard at all,” Zayat said. “Now I hear talk he has a deal to get breeding rights to California Chrome and he goes around saying California Chrome is better than American Pharoah. 

Chrome might very well be better than American Pharoah, or he might not. For that we have figures, and comparisons and our handicapping judgement. But that's where, in my view, the analysis should probably end.

Our favorite sweater wearing Syracuse alum Justin Horowitz asked a question on the twitter today:

This year is harder than most.

Marion Marauder is up against it, despite winning the Triple Crown, through no fault of his own, really. Glidemaster won the Triple and Horse of the Year in 2006, because the cupboard wasn't really stuffed (horses like Total Truth and Darlin's Delight were not generational). His main foe, who had every bit as much talent, did not win enough of those big races against him either.

In 2004, Triple Crown winner Windsong's Legacy ended up losing Horse of the Year for a pretty good reason - Rainbow Blue. I remember lobbying hard for the mare that year, because, well, she was pretty special.

This year is much like 2004 but you have have not one, but two horses who are pretty darn fast - Miki and Wiggle It.

When both have similar resumes (Wiggle's numbers could be padded with restricted 4YO stakes, so he raced more and won more money), in my view, you always have to lean to who was the faster horse, when both are firing on all cylinders.

Wiggle had some down weeks (he lost to Rockin' Ron twice) and Miki was softer, and less sharp in August, but when both were at the top of their games (the two weeks of the Franklin, for example), I think Miki proved he was the better horse. You don't make a half mile brush and crush, get rebuffed and still somehow win the race without being much better. That's a tell tale mile.

There are still some weeks left in the calendar, but right now, Miki is my choice.

Have a nice Wednesday everyone!

Speed Badges & Figs, and What's the Regulatory Crystal Ball Say?

Good morning peeps!

Earlier this year in New South Wales, greyhound racing was chopped, primarily due to animal welfare issues. Too many dogs were being euthanized after their racing career, or not able to race in the first place (an industry practice called "wastage", due to overbreeding), and live-baiting - a training technique that didn't sit well in today's culture - was exposed.

This week, after intense lobbying, the government allowed the industry to continue. But there are some major-league strings attached.

• Capping breeding to 2,000
• Reducing the number of tracks
• Reducing the number of race events
• Whole-of-life dog cycle management
• $1,500 bond for every dog bred

All of the above will not be funded by the government, the industry itself has to pay for it.

I would offer that - perhaps in a couple of decades - something not dissimilar will be the regulatory framework imposed on harness racing, to be followed by the Thoroughbreds. As revenues dry up, so does forced contraction, and with more and more power to the anti-Seaworld lobbies (which in my view is inevitable), life-cycle management and "401k's for horses" (previously proposed to racing by economist Caroline Betts) would be very likely in some form.

Unless something drastically changes, I think ceilings on foal crops are not too far-fetched either.

h/t to Jennifer for tweeting the piece.

On Sunday at the Red Mile, pacer Always B Miki did what everyone knew he was capable of doing - pace a faster mile than the 146.4 race record. His 146 mile will probably stand for some time - if for no other reason that the circumstances have to be right to go this kind of speed, and it's rare to find them.

What was interesting about this mile for me, in contrast to the last assault at the world record by Somebeachsomewhere, was that two other horses beat the old record too, in Shamballa and All Bets Off. There was very little separation, and it shows just how fast horses are today. In fact, the field was devoid of two other stalwarts (harness racing's big three) who would've likely went faster than 146.4, as well.

If we're looking at speed figures per se, I believe Somebeachsomewhere ran the better fig because of conditions (and the fact it was him against the clock). Horses that have partners to race with go faster, as Miki had, or Nihilator had with Falcon Seelster 30 years ago. This is the same in thoroughbred racing, but at times I feel handicappers (and some figure makers) do not pay nearly enough attention to this pack animal tendency.

If we're talking performance figures, I still think Always B Miki owns that badge, but not for Sunday, because of his no-man's land journey in the Meadowlands Pace. That mile was stunning and I can't think of any horse who could pace 1:47 off that journey. To me, that race is legend, and signaled that we were looking at something pretty special, if not other-worldly.

Congratulations to Miki and the connections, as well as Dr. Hogan who helped put him back together. Sometimes we forget he had two operations which would've sidelined almost every thoroughbred in existence, and even some standardbreds, too. Miki is some kind of powerful horse with a massive constitution. He represents the sport of harness racing really well, and deserves to be known as this sports' fastest horse.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.

Detention Barn Follies Continue

As y'all know, Little Brown Jug week was a rather interesting one. From the inside baseball side of things, the story that won't go away involved the capturing of the Jug winning trainer's phone, and related text messages, two of which were:

“Where is the (stuff) for betting line?”

“Anytime between 830-1030 range when its clear to saftly (sic) get his treatments into him.”

The result was protested by a few trainers, because the detention barn is a place where, I personally as a horse owner, tried to bring in a can of diet coke once, and it was like I was carrying an uzi into a baby shower. You don't bring anything into the D barn. If you do, you're up the creek.

Although most thought the fireworks ended Jug day, it hasn't. Legal teams are now involved.

I am not a legal dude, but it seems trainer Coleman, who (according to the story) did admit to wanting to bring in a syringe (for yogurt, mind you), might end up having her words, not the texts, be the issue in this defacto appeal. Syringes in a D barn are worse than diet coke, no doubt, and even yogurt is a no-no, as Susie Kerwood at Woodbine can tell you. 'Wanting' and 'doing' are two separate issues, though, I suppose. We'll let the legal types figure that out.

Regardless, this will be an interesting story to follow.

Notes:

Story on Event Marketing and Racing today in the TDN. Chrome and Zenyatta are two of very few horses in Thoroughbred racing who capture the imagination of most everyone, over time. They're outliers, and the fact that racing places so much hope on horses like this coming around every year or so is not wise, in my view. Even current darlings like Tepin, or past ones like Wise Dan are a notch below the outliers. Because of the state of affairs and the structure of the sport, events > great horses, and I think it has to be that way. 

Pricci talks about a rider not riding a horse out and getting a $500 fine. I think those who find this odd have a point. In Hong Kong he'd have probably been escorted to the tarmac and put on a plane.

Enjoy your Thursday everyone.