A Good Handicapping Habit (from an NFL Quarterback)

I was listening to the Bussing with the Boys podcast yesterday, where the guest was Prime Time Cousin Kirk, and he told what I thought was a very interesting story. 

In 2014, he was being pulled every which way with his time, and he said he never felt comfortable on game day. He felt he didn't have everything down, and with the dysfunction of the then Redskins ownership and locker room, it made it progressively worse. 

He was not playing well and his wife told him he had to schedule blocks of time when things would get done - he had to create a routine. He built (the man is an obvious geek with stuff like this) a spreadsheet and followed it. 

When Friday evening came around, he felt he had nothing to do. He felt fully confident on game day. 

He said it was the big reason he threw for 5,000 yards and his team made the playoffs the following year. He's been doing the same routine since. 

For regular people like us who remember taking an exam, I assume it's a similar feeling. Confidence breeds results. 

This story struck a nerve, because I made a point of doing similar with my handicapping this year. 

For example, on Tuesday evening I get done my 'capping work for Thursday. When I open the PP's on Thursday, I will have gotten what the odds board should look like in my mind before it opens. I will have an idea why the first time turfer is taking CAW money in pick 3's. I'll have an idea why an off claim horse is dead on the board. Or why a horse off a qualifier or set of works I loved looks like a solid single. 

Because I've done that work already, and wasn't scrambling, I am looking at holes in markets, rather than trying to work backwards to understand the board.  I've mapped out where I need to be, and where I don't in multi legs. 

This works for the other days of the week. For example, if I do my work for Thursday on Tuesday and can pass that final exam, I can have my first look at Saturday's exam on Wednesday evening. 

This game is brutally hard. Not hard like beating a Brian Flores green dog disguised blitz, but a different kind of hard. The rake is brutal, and we're competing against some serious sharps. I believe when we've done the work and are not blindsided short of time, we can perform a hell of a lot better. 

Setting blocks of time to get the work done in busy lives helps me greatly. The routine makes me confident on what I am doing is right. It gives me time to construct tickets and look for curve balls and be a better bettor. 

If you don't already have a routine, maybe it will help you, too.

Have a great day everyone.

The Kentucky Derby Never "Gets it Right" (& I'm Okay With That)

The Derby non-placing of Sierra Leone for beating up Forever Young like Mike Tyson against a high school welterweight has caused a lot of chatter on the social medias. 

For all of you who say Sierra Leone should've been pitched from second to third, that Forever Young would've won the Derby if he was outside, not inside the Chad Brown horse etc, etc, I agree wholeheartedly. 

But I'm super glad they didn't even look at it. 

We seem to live in a get-it-right-at-all-costs world in sports fandom, but I think it only takes half of it into perspective. There is a cost to get it right. 

The ending of NBA games are excruciatingly long. The NHL can have five minutes of game play, a goal, and then a review of an offside that happened five minutes ago that has nothing to do with nothing. In the NFL, when everyone is tired in a two minute drill, a delay of five minutes can result in giving everyone a rest with fans left wondering what the score even is. 

And let's not forget, that when we have to "get it right" there's always more to get right, which means more replay, more delays more stoppages, not less. 

So, let's get it right in the Derby and pitch Sierra Leone. 

Then, let's have a look at jockey Brian Hernandez's move up the wood to see if he took a spot and forced his way through. Let's look at the first turn where everyone is getting mowed down, each and every year. Let's post the thrill of the result, then wait for the stewards to dissect the Zapruder film. 

Maybe at 10:30 that evening, when we're curled up watching a true crime special on NBC's Dateline, we'll see an alert -- we now have a Derby winner.  We hit pause, and scatter to check the ADW to see what we got paid. 

If we do that in the Derby, let's for sure do it at Gulfstream in two-turn turf races where horses shove others into the 7 path as a matter of course. Let's do it at every track everywhere - not just with the infractions that occur late in the race because visibility bias is so yesterday - but occur anywhere. Nine hour cards anyone?

My Forever Young win bet and exotics are in the wind somewhere, just like a lot of bets I make each and every day. I'm totally okay with it. For 150 years the Derby has never, ever gotten it right, and I hope it continues to get it wrong for a 150 more. 

Have a great Monday everyone. 

If I'm Using Fair Odds I'm Doing it Wrong

Hat tip to @dennycaps1 (he's talked about similar to this on his feed), but happy to report that my fair odds lines are going in the dust bin. 

Yesterday at Keeneland I liked two horses. 

In race three, we had a Thomas filly, second start off a layoff, returning to turf. The work tab looked solid, the field didn't look like much, there was what looked like cheap speed, and the 8-1 morning line should provide some value in multis. I made the horse 4-1 to 9-2. 

In race seven, a 10 furlong allowance, I liked the six. Mott's shipper I felt would be overbet, and this trainer clicked on Saturday with a nice win. I expected this horse to be very good and made her about 3-1 off her 9-2 morning line. 

In race three the 8-1 morning line horse was well bet in all pools. She opened at 4-1 and was hit late to 3-1. She was below my fair odds line. 

In race 7, my pick opened fairly strong, the horse I was fading was dead on the board, but my filly drifted and was fourth choice in the multis. She was 5-1 near post time, well above my fair odds line. 

What did I end up doing?

I bet large on the horse below my odds line in race 3, and didn't bet the horse that was well above my odds line in race 7. 

The horse in race 3 ran amazing, getting in traffic trouble, coming second. Gold checkmark. 

The horse in race seven ran as bad as a horse can, making a little move around the turn and cantered across the finish line in dead last. 

It ain't our first rodeo in the modern racing game. 

This game has absolutely changed as lines get sharper, and as lines get sharper, in my view at least, we have to use them 180 degrees differently than Mark Cramer and others taught us a generation ago. 

Have a nice Monday everyone.