For the Future, it Appears Kentucky Racing is Just About Everything

While I was waiting for the Spa races to be moved off the turf (spoiler, they just were), I noticed a lot of chatter about Keeneland getting the Breeders Cup in ’27.

My first thought was, we better get used to it because I don’t foresee Kentucky racetracks not getting the bulk of the BCs anytime soon. And to me, it makes perfect sense.

When we were kids, we might have learned about comparative advantage in school. For example, a country that makes bread really well and cheaply exports it to others who can’t make it nearly as cost-effectively. It’s a simple concept. Lately, that seems to have gone out the window. 

Canada, with its vast natural resource edge, has been met with policies that have made it harder and harder to extract that advantage. In the US, where technology, innovation, and IC rule the roost for their massive productivity edge, they seem to be focused on trying to make textiles great again.

Meanwhile, Kentucky said (in Gabe Prewitt’s drawl) “not on my watch.” The Bluegrass state knows it’s the horse racing state and seems to want to keep it that way. The state and its lawmakers have poured almost everything into the sport.

Kentucky Downs has taken horses from almost everywhere with its massive purses. Ellis Park holds $100,000 maidens. Even Turfway Park has juiced purses and handle. In harness land, it’s almost obscene what they’ve done to grade 1, 2, and 3 stakes at historical and storied ovals. The entire two- and three-year-old stakes season is an abomination, as Kentucky shovels millions into purses at places like Oak Grove.

We can complain about it—I, and many of you do—but at the very least, we have a horse racing state hell-bent on, well, horse racing. That’s not all bad.

This is why, in my view anyway, the biggest events in this sport will be held in Kentucky. And frankly, would it surprise anyone that the state might be the only one holding horse racing in fifty years? I wouldn’t be surprised. 

I understand our frustration with the Death Star’s takeover. It’s concerning that they’re repeating the same mistakes everyone else has made by solely focusing on increasing supply and neglecting demand. The potential to change takeout rates, develop new mediums, and restore fairness with CAW’s is real and available, yet they dismiss it, throw another few million dollars into a purse, while raising takeout to “pay” for a trackside tent.

However, it’s important to remember that this is the place for horse racing, and they actually know it. They’re constructing something substantial and leveraging their edge. In that sense, it’s refreshing.

Have a nice Thursday, everyone. 

Old Timer Memories of Gate Break Inquiries and "Post" One

Hello everyone, I hope the week is treating you all very well. 

I was feeling a little nostalgic today. If you're interested I will share my thoughts on a couple of items. 

First, for the thousands and thousands of new racefans who read my blog (many from Russian link farms), let me tell you a tale about a gate break. 

It was many years ago now at Santa Anita (I doubt you'd find any even grainy footage on Youtube), and there was a horse named Bayern. 

Out of the gate, the story goes, he veered wildly and slammed into several horses. Two of the horses, again as told by old timers, jumped into the infield and had to be caught by outriders. One horse, owned by a media mogul, was slammed so hard he got down to the quarter in an estimated 37.3 (hard to tell, racing wasn't in-tune with runups way back then). One of the horses with an open bridle that could see it all coming, said "frig this" didn't even leave the gate, and headed back to his stall for a drink. 

Bayern was crowned the winner. 

Meanwhile in the same jurisdiction on Saturday, this happened. I won't elaborate on the commentary that's already been assembled in virtually all corners of this sport, but truly it is one of the most bizarre rulings I think I've ever seen. 

Over in harness racing land, here's another old timer story. 

"What post you got for Saturday?"

"Post one"

"How do you feel about post two?"

"It's pretty good"

Now it's all changed. Everything is a draw. 

"How do you feel about the inside draw, what draw did you get, this horse drew outside, that draw was bad."

Maybe this is what the MAGA guys get excited about when it comes to globalization. Maybe it's Dexter Dunn's fault. Or Andrew McCarthy, or his brother (aka the rightful driver of this year's Big M Pace champ). Blame it on the Kiwis and Aussies. 

Regardless, let's all call draws post positions again. I'll even make up a catchy phrase - LACDPPA - and print red hats if I have to. Please make it so. 

Speaking of draws posts, another old time harness racing truth is under assault - and I don't have the foggiest idea how it got narratived so fast - the rail post at Mohawk and the Meadowlands is a "bad draw".

This is all over the harness press; analysts ask questions about it. Some drivers even talk about it now. 

The thinking seems to be that the turn comes up too fast and it's crippling. Weird, because you know where the turn comes up really fast? Yonkers. You know what post you want at Yonkers? Post one. 

The difference of course is that at Yonkers, drivers push out from the rail to use it as an advantage, whereby at Mohawk (maybe from reading the press, I honestly don't know) drivers outside probably JJ and Louis Roy don't push out from the rail. 

You know when drawing the wood sucks? When you don't push out because you have your head looking right to let five horses in front of you. Then it sucks bad.

I'm a degen bettor, so what do I know, but I had a chuckle a couple of weeks ago. 

Driver Yannick Gingras was being asked about having post one with a trotter in an upcoming race, and if he was "worried about his 'inside draw' because it was so "tricky". He looked a little surprised at the question, politely said no he wasn't worried about it and that he'll probably push out like you have to from there. He said post one was "fine". 

I guess he doesn't read the internet. 

There's my old time whip around racing, where gate breaks were part of the game, draws were called posts, and the rail in harness racing wasn't horrible. 

Have a super day everyone!

Good Morning Racefans. A Post Filled with Bad/Good Opinion on What the Hell Happened in Racing This Weekend

Good morning everyone. I hope the day is treating you well. 

So much happened this weekend, and much of it stuck in my craw (or in my amazement) in various ways. So I decided to take a few moments and jot a few things (and some rants) down. 

The Adios was won by what will now be referred to as the horse who crossed the wire first in the Meadowlands Pace, Prince Hal Hanover, and it was a pretty decent tilt. I thought at least. DeRosa reports the handle was quite good, with the race being televised for the first time. 

Credit where due: total handle on Adios card up about 16%-17%. Considering @TheNYRA Saratoga was down 9.9%, that’s not bad! https://t.co/lPSzEeRwkN

— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) July 27, 2025

Adios day is a great day; throwback in many ways, and it's nice to see them have a good result. 

The Meadowlands held the Hambo and Hambo Oaks eliminations, and I wondered if i) horses were replaced with other horses, and ii) if some drivers didn't make it back from the Adios and the amateurs took their place, unbeknownst to us bettors. 

Pre-race Oaks chalk Lady Landia went to the back and missed the final at 2-5. 

Ake is the best. He drives his 3/5 shots like they are 25/1 and he drove Nordic Catcher like a rocket ship with blah PP’s

— Buck Swope (@ShotTakingTime) July 27, 2025

Pre-race Hambo chalk Go Dog Go raced like well, Stop Cat Stop. 

I have a theory on this, actually, which may or may not be true. When Dog beat Maryland easily last time and looked like the second coming of Muscle Hill, he veered a hard left in the lane. I wonder if he tweaked something. He raced like something was bothering him, and driver Todd McCarthy drove him like he'd be no good. Who knows, but it was quite disappointing.

Kevin Oscarrson drove the Lady Landia race like he was 2-5, wanting to pull two holes at 70-1, and various other moves. Prediction - I'm pretty sure he's gonna do something wild in the final. 

Aside - I don't know what to say about Scott Zeron and R Lady W, but I swear I'm gonna be so broke betting this horse until she's 12, or until they list Gingras. 

I'll switch my Hambo pick to Miss Belmar and hope she's not chalk. I have no idea what to do in the Hambo, but I assume Maryland will be my most likely winner, barring a bad post.

In the Jim Dandy, Sovereignty proved without a doubt (in my mind anyway) that he is a tremendous racehorse. It seems like years ago he was a fade because he could only be a closer. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if they're pointing him to the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. 

I wish it was 1990 again and we'd see him race throughout his 4 year old season. He just keeps getting better and better, in my view. 

Speaking of 1990. Communism is in the news, particularly with Gen Z types who don't know which side of the city people ran to when the wall came down. The old Stalinist saying "show me the man and I'll show you the crime" I believe works with the harness judges, too. Namely, the longer you look for an infraction, the higher the chance you'll find one. However, what happens when they don't even look?

In the WEG Open last night Taurasi definitely ran over or went inside pylons. How do you not tell the public you're looking at it. The official sign went up, nothing burger. This sport can have 20 minute inquiries or no inquiry. It seems there is no in between. 

I get it, it sucks, but I wish the industry types would stop doing this:

We have a clubhouse leader for most significant late odds change on a winner at Del Mar. As the field for Saturday's 6th was loading, Nanci Griffith was 19-1. Her final price was 6-1. She rallied wide and won. Folks who hoped for approx. $40 on a $2 win ticket, got $14.80. #drf

— Steve Andersen (@DRFAndersen) July 26, 2025

The horse was always 6-1. She just wasn't six to one when the tote board was made up of gobbledygook.  

Back in 1904, Tony the Nose hung the Giants by 4 over the Eagles in the Bronx, and Pete the Leg hung Eagles - 4 at a barber shop in Philly. The price was phantom, and Tony Zhou/Keith Bush/Rob Pizzola syndicates mowed into town and banged the price into shape. 

This happens every race in racing. The tote board is a barber shop. These prices are not real. You're making people dumber.

Speaking of dumb, I was not playing seriously during the day yesterday - a few supers, ex's, reverse pyramid things for 20 cents etc, and I looked up and had a super day. I cashed 68 out of like 200 wagers, which for my style of play is like running the table. I texted a friend before the harness races this info, and then went 11 for my next 200. Never tempt the gambling gods. 

Last up - to the content makers in this sport - Scott, Sport of Kings guys, picks platforms etc, I commend you. I listen to what I can and it amazes me this is all free. I can't believe this sport isn't more popular.

Have a great rest of the day everyone.