So ends one of the most contentious and often silly debates in thoroughbred racing history. Zenyatta, called by some public handicappers "slow", and a "synthetic specialist" closed from the clouds, only to fall a scant head short in the Breeders Cup Classic, on dirt, against the best males on that surface.
With the showing, she threw a giant hole into the speed figure handicapping dogma that has permeated the sport since the 1970's.
The big mare only runs big numbers when she has to. She is not Quality Road, where she can run like a scared cat on a rock hard three path and run a 120. She is too smart for that. She runs to her target, and then coasts, taking care of herself and showing brains that few racehorses have. If Blame was stopped up early in the lane and she made the lead early, she probably would have run a second slower, winning by a tiny margin; and earning a "slow" figure.
That's what she does, and that is why speed figure gurus had a difficult time assessing her.
Speed figures are the bomb. They make you money, especially when you sprinkle some handicapping logic and sound gambling strategy into the mix. But with her they are nothing short of worthless.
As for the surface debate, some watchers pointed to a sub-par figure in the Apple Blossom to explain her disdain for dirt. How does a mare run a 12 second eighth around the turn at Oaklawn with her ears pricked, win by four in a canter and not like dirt?
Zenyatta gave us great joy and great debate. She's one of the best mares ever to walk the earth - two Breeders Cup Classics on two different surfaces against the best males the sport had to offer, where she came a foot away from sweeping the entire two fields, assures that. We will be remembering her fondly for being a wonderful racehorse and a wonderfully fast racemare for generations.
And we do not need a Beyer figure or a handicapping guru to tell us so.
Most Trafficked, Last 12 Months
-
Auckland Reactor is coming to the US from New Zealand and he landed in the barn of the very sharp Kelvin Harrison. I don't think many w...
-
Have you seen the RCI's recent push to change the narrative on drugs and racing? The story they tell is accurate, and has been for some...
-
Elmer Patzer walked up to a betting machine and started popping in tickets to see if he won. All of a sudden, whamo, he cashed for $6.5 mill...
-
Yesterday on twitter there was a conversation about why some people are withholding money from Keeneland this meet. A simple question, with...
-
Back in the early 1990's I got my first real job. I was a pretty much an office gofer for a mining consortium. One day a gentleman cam... -
Horses opening with 10k to win on them, at smaller venues lately? I have not been playing too seriously the past two days, however I did che...
-
Every time I flip on twitter someone is annoyed that NBC is tape delaying some of the events for prime time television. Columnists have join...
-
Canterbury Park - the small Minnesota track that lowered takeout last year, only to raise it this season - concluded their meet recently. Th...
-
Good morning folks. On Awful Announcing, columnist Matt Zemek tore a hide off ESPN for what he thinks is the dumbing down of tennis cover...
4 comments:
Nice story, You are probably correct about the dirt angle. I do note that her female line is totally European which may have influenced this idea of running all weather. Turf & AW really are blood brothers so Zenyatta probably would be good on turf as well.
Now that would pose a question. Who to send her to and looking at her lines i think a turf champion is better suited. Over to you.
Poly to Dirt!!! That's the problem here. HorseS generally don't break as "sharp" going from poly to dirt. Her usual slow start was simplY exagerrated because of her previous effort being on poly. I guarantee that if she was coming off a dirt race she would have won. I HATE THE POLYTRACK. THIS IS THE ONLY REASON ZENYATTA GOT BEAT.
Good column... Beyer, Serling, Crist and the rest of the east coast handicapping clique should be embarrassed.
A handicapping neophyte could have written Beyer's last two columns, and they were beneath him. I lost a ton of respect for him during the Zenyatta years. I do not think I will ever read him in the same way I once did ever again.
Phil
PS: You understood what you were watching from day one and you did not care who disagreed. I respect that.
Phil,
Not me. I was not sold on her as an all time type filly until last year.
But yes; like you I have had a laugh at the surface debate with it. Somehow HOL is like running on marbles to Belmont and a horse doing the former must be taken with a grain of salt to some. We are stuck on numbers far too much in racing.
PTP
Post a Comment