I've been reading the press, some sharp bettors and twitter for the past week or two, and conventional wisdom says the big Beyer horse - Bodemeister - will be chalk for Derby 138. Some even think he'll be as low as 3-1.
Without the benefit of seeing the draw, I think this won't be the case. I believe Union Rags will be the favorite for four reasons:
1 - The buzz on this colt is still stout, despite the loss and the lack of a big 2012 Beyer. The clocker types are going ga-ga over him.
2 - Familiarity breeds betting dollars. Last year in the Juvenile, a million or more viewers watched him, and thought he was miles better than Hansen. Not a day goes by it seems that someone says he traveled further than the circumference of Mars more than the winner. There are fans, both casual and rabid, wanting to see him get revenge and make the Trakus number look like gold. Think Zenyatta. She was 4-5 against Blame in the Breeders Cup Classic. Everyone saw her close from St. Louis to almost run him down. She'd probably would have been 1-5 in a rematch two weeks later. People love closers who almost win.
3 - The "Trip Over The Track". Churchill can be quirky, and loving Churchill - which he seems to - makes him a formidable first choice.
4 - He's currently the chalk in offshore books and at Betfair, despite the Bode-Beyer talk.
Unless Bodemeister draws an advantageous middle post, and Union Rags draws outward of 17 or the rail or two hole, I think he's a slam dunk for favoritism come the First Saturday in May.
Most Trafficked, Last 12 Months
-
There has been a lot of discussion of late via #simocon about racing, betting and signals and all the rest. The main theme is that racing ca...
-
Standardbred Canada has a poll up asking who is the greatest trotter who ever lived. These questions are fun, but really it is impossible t...
-
The news hit the wires today that TVG is in search of a new CEO. This news assures a shake-up in programming at the huge ADW, especially w... -
How do we differentiate ourselves from thoroughbred bettors? What are the pros and cons of being a harness bettor? In a recent article at R2...
-
A lot of you have seen this Portnoy post about his beat in the Pick 6 at Del Mar yesterday: I made it to last leg of pick 6 at Del Mar. I h...
-
In 1996, most know that the pari-mutuel tax on wagering was reduced from 7.5% to 0.5% as part of the slots at racetracks program. The indust...
-
I saw this tweet by Nick yesterday. Nick is the morning line maker at Keeneland. I promise I’m not being a smart ass. I clearly made a horr...
-
Harness racing is a unique bird when it comes to driving styles and driving colonies. Whereas in Thoroughbred racing, a jock does not race a...
-
Sitting outside, or in the grandstand at Greenwood brings back many memories. Racing was super-popular and we usually had a packed house and...
1 comment:
Man, these t-bred blogs are crazy, you need four reasons now to be a chalk? Wow!
Anyhow, been crazy busy for like maybe 5 years now thought I would drop by.
Speaking of Zenyatta, just watched a similar monster of a woman destroy a field and win her 20th in a row...Black Caviar. She even had 211k to win on her in the Canadian pool, that's unheard of, especially for 2:39am! Can you imagine waiting until that late in the night to count how many dimes you made?
Continue the great work, will try my best to check in more often!
thewhip.
Post a Comment