I once picked up a book, which shall remain nameless, and I ran all their hot "angles" through a database. All the angles - not some, but all - were ROI negative, despite having the expected good impact values. Some were of an angle variety which we all love and yearn for: Here's how you beat the chalk.
It's great to beat the chalk. Not only are you getting a great payoff, but it feels good. We outsmarted the crowd! Unfortunately, it is one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult things to do in horse racing, in an ROI positive fashion.
When you try and subset data to beat the chalk, it shows just how hard it is.
Beware the chalk off extended layoffs! Well, here is this year by favorite, by days since last start, non first time starters (click to enlarge):
Maybe we don't want to bet chalk if they are from lower ranked connections? Beware!
Jcapper has a neat algorithm for horses who look ugly - no works for awhile, terrible form, ugly, negative-angle horses. They win at 4.6% of the time. What do they do as a favorite? A 0.81 ROI and a 29% win percentage. When ugly horses filled with negative angle after negative angle payout what any other horse does when they're chalk, it's a mighty tough gig.
Most angles you often hear to beat the chalk tend to be just like most angles: A fast way to the poorhouse.
Here are a few things I look for when I want to fade a chalk, and they all have a common theme:
- Perfect trip beaten favorite.
- Post parade inspection. Does the horse look off, is he or she less keen and happy?
- Cold trainer. Jamie Ness has run off the board with a few lately. Why bet him at 4-5 if he's cold?
- A hot "Replay" horse. He was checked and would've won for fun. But everyone saw it. These are the types who are even money and have a 35% chance to win.
What works for you?