Thursday Notes - CO, Jackpot, Doug Squared & More

Good morning racing fans.

Some things I am not smart enough to understand; yes I am sure regulars know this and have a joke to insert. I just can't get the logic behind this:

Cobalt use, over 50 ppb, is being treated as a Class II.

Cobalt is a penultimate shady drug. Its uses are shared by innuendo, rumor, as are its benefits. It's the exact type of thing that kitchen sink trainers try to use to get an edge.

"Psst, try Cobalt, they are not testing it and it can build red blood cells like EPO and you can win races!"

"Is it bad for the horse?"

"Well they say don't use it, but they never want us to use anything. Here's some, inject away."

Because it does not apparently do what the shady man says it does - build red blood cells - well, we won't treat it as a class I. I say hooey to that. This is exactly the type of drug that should be treated as a game changer. There's no prescription, no guide, no nothing, and the people who use it are the ones who would probably lean towards getting any edge they can with a flavor of the week untestable drug. A cobalt positive is like a big flashing billboard sign: "I'm the type of person you don't want working with horses"

I get the feeling that if bad people on a backstretch get wind that battery acid is a good prerace and does not test, we'd say, Class II, six months off, because, well, battery acid didn't do what they thought it would do.

** Note/edit, a wrinkle announced just now and this is new. Via Ray Paulick: "#RCI model rules set 25 ppb threshold on cobalt for warning letter, 50 for Class B violation, 300 for recommended 10-year suspension." Much better.

Boardroom Dougie Sal wrote a pretty interesting blog on Twinspires today.  It's about suspended trainer Kellyn Gorder and it touches a whole lot of neat topics and angles. These are things we - mostly as handicappers - go through each day when we analyze what's happening in certain barns in this day and age. For the RMTC and others, it's a mindset that they don't get to see often from customers. But it's what happens.

I think American Pharoah - if he draws a decent post - will be a bigger favorite than many suspect come Derby day.

I think Carpe Diem will be - posts equal - much lower odds than Upstart, and I believe that last year's Breeders Cup Juvy showed that Upstart is a better horse than Carpe Diem is. 

That's all I got for the Derby because I don't start looking at it until a few days before.

I proclaim there will come a day when every new bet ever created is a jackpot wager. Going to the track, will be like going to an ATM that does not pay any money. It will just pay out six Saturday's from now. OK, not really, but Doug (a different Doug) looks at a new one here. 

Whoops!............

— Plod Boy Jake (@PlodBoyJake) April 22, 2015

Fascinating.....

Back of the napkin: Racing as % of tot net revenue. CHDN 2014 32% 2013 35% 2012 41% 2011 43% 2010 53% 2009 69% 2008 76% 2007 88% 2006 93%
— Dan Needham (@thorotrends) April 22, 2015

With slots maturing and saturating, with casinos popping up like WalMart's, with lotteries and everything else being used for revenue, I have this weird feeling that in fifteen to twenty years you will not want any of those things. You'll want to buy a racetrack, where something different is going on. Hopefully takeout is not 44% then like in Italy. If it isn't, I think it has a shot.

Sounds about right.....

...and the winner is the 1, beat 73 lengths combined in prior four starts...at 3-1.
— Craig Milkowski (@TimeformUSfigs) April 22, 2015

Have a nice Thursday everyone.