Thursday, May 5, 2016

Derby Handicapping - Final Bathing Index ® Figures & Selections

As most know, we've worked hard this week on our popular Annual Derby Bathing Index ®. The crack team and I have been hot and heavy, looking at pictures, seeing the baths live, and watching video.

The original bath post (here with live bath shots and early analysis) received almost 1.2 million unique visitors, which is just short of the traffic my blog gets when I write a post mentioning Sid Fernando.

I must say, the traffic never ceases to amaze me, but with the past success of the Derby Bathing Index ® I suppose I shouldn't be. For those new to the Index ®, it has produced winners like Mine That Bird, Monarchos, American Pharoah, Big Brown, Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Orb, Super Saver and Smarty Jones (along with a few others) since we started in 2001. I'd link to the posts for verification, but I can't find them right now.

This year we feel will be another banner year for the Index, so without any more delay, here are this year's Final Derby Bathing Index ® figures. At the end of the post are my final selections. To uncover superfecta plays, please send $19.99 to me here at the PTP Blog. The money will go to a good cause, my ADW account.

 Mo Tom - Final 2016 Derby Bathing Index ®, 7.0

Ladies and gentlemen, may I present you with the highest Bathing Index score in the history of the medium. We have never seen a horse like a bath like Mo Tom. In fact, looking at archived Secretariat bath film found recently buried underneath River Downs ("The Lost Bath Tapes"), I believe even Big Red did not take a bath like Mo Tom.

For a refresher, here's Mo Tom. H2Olicious!

If Mo Tom's trip is as clean as he bathes, the colt is gold!
Amoss & Lanerie, artist rendering

There are a good number of people out there who don't really understand the Bathing Index ® and might be asking, PTP, what about the intangibles?

Well honestly, there is no such thing as intangibles. The trip in the Lousiana Derby, or Risen Star, is of no concern of ours. The speed figures this colt has run, not an issue.

The fact that it was reported there was some sort of fracas between the trainer and jockey after the Louisiana Derby where Mo Tom was an accordian means nothing to us.

We rely solely on the bath. It's the reason we've hit so many Derby winners. We're not changing a thing now.

Our bottom line with Mo Tom: We believe he will win the Kentucky Derby.

Exaggerator - Final 2016 Derby Bathing Index ®, 6.0


When this colt by Leriodesenormeaux (or trained by a Desormeaux - I don't really know, I just watch baths) is asked his birthsign by the lady horses at horse bars, he certainly replies, "Pisces". His love of the bath this week was superb. Because Exaggerator moves his head forward in all his bath pictures - seemingly saying "more bath now", he also receives an excellent Bathing Pace Figure ®

On the track he has shown the ability to tackle Nyquist in a 44 and change half in a sprint, then relax off the pace and win the Santa Anita Derby in the slop. It should be no surprise this horse likes the slop, or that a horse with such a good bath figure is versatile. 

His Index score of 6.0 is the second highest since we started releasing the figures to the general public, tying him with past winners Animal Kingdom and Smarty Jones.

After releasing this information here to many, many bettors, it may end up making him the Derby favorite. It would not surprise me, or the team.

 Creator - Final 2016 Derby Bathing Index ®, 5.0

Trainer Steve Asmussen
Creator's bath score is on par with Point Given, Curlin, and Super Saver, so he's in good company. He clearly loved the bathing all week, and handled himself like a pro.

If you analyze the Creator bath video, you will notice a nice relaxed tail. At the present time there is a real debate in the Horse Bathing Handicapping Community (HBHC) between the benefits of a flare tail while bathing, versus a relaxed tail. I am from the classical school, so my figure factors in his flat tail. It's really an amazing bath tail.

A lot of people say Creator went up the wood in Arkansas, and didn't really separate himself from Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore who went wide and will be longer odds. To them I ask, "so what, how did they bathe?". That shuts them up.

There are a number of questions with Creator -- will he get pace to run at, is his post okay, what in the hell is with his trainer's hair -- but there's no question he's bath ready.


 Mor Spirit - Final 2016 Derby Bathing Index ®, 4.0

One thing I have noticed over the last 15 years doing the Derby Bathing Index ®, it's that all Bob Baffert horse's have been good bathers. I have heard from people who worked for Bob that he bathes his horses at a young age -- sometimes as a weanling -- to get them to love the bath, and his horses respond on the big stage.

Bob Baffert
Mor Spirit has been favored in all his starts, and his loss in the slop should not concern you. It must have been shoeing, or maybe he ate some bad hay.  With a 4.0 score, he is not afraid of water.

Something else that has worried some people is the spelling of the word "Mor". This is not a problem. The millennials are spelling it Moar, Mor and More while they stay up all night playing video games in their parents basements. He's a modern colt.

I really don't think -- if you are a follower of the bath index -- you should be leaving this colt off your tickets. 
Brody's Cause - Final 2016 Derby Bathing Index ®, 3.0

In Florida, my source (who shall remain nameless........ Pompano Park and part time Gulfstream announcer Gabe Prewitt) told me this colt did not take to the bath. It sure looked like some good info, because he raced as flat as a pancake.

At Keeneland, where I personally watched him bathe, he was frankly, amazing. He was like some sort of brown fish that looked like a huge horse. A fish-horse.

Boy did I go to the windows.

Watching him bathe this week, though, he received a lower figure. Brody will need a little luck.

Me and the team thank you for your purchase

Thanks you for clicking and purchasing my Derby package. This comes with a special money back guarantee*

This year's Derby calls for a heavy lean to two horses - Mo Tom and Exaggerator. Because I am a top bettor with lots of skill, I will show you how to construct tickets around these two horses. 






Superfecta Bet Special Ticket Construction: 


Other special ticket construction superfecta bets:  


Special Super High Five construction bet: 


Good luck everyone. May the horse be with you. 

* If none of the horses mentioned either here, in old blog posts, or by me on twitter between now and race time (except Oscar Nominated, he won't do anything) don't hit the top 15 finishers, send me a self addressed stamped envelope and I will give you a refund.

1 comment:

Fran Jurga said...

Hmmm...I have to watch the bathing routine so I can see the shoes. You're watching the bathing itself, but we came to the same conclusion. Mor Spirit was shod by Wes Champagne, who did so much for American Pharoah last year. Watch this space!

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