Underthinking the Pegasus

The Pegasus draw occurred yesterday and Arrogate drew the rail. California Chrome drew the 12. There were oooohs and awws for more than just the video evidence.

Pegasus draw - Wow... pic.twitter.com/FV33BSKe6g

— Gene Kershner (@EquiSpace) January 23, 2017

Always looking on the bright side, perhaps kids who know and like angles will be attracted to learning to handicap.

Anyhoo, at GP over 9 furlongs, the outside posts are not very good at all. The last horse to win as a chalk at GP over 9 panels was Big Brown. He was pretty good. Post 12 at 9f is 2 for the last 41 at GP, via Crunk.

The Timeform US early pace projector looks like this:

1st look at the TimeformUS Pace Projector for the Pegasus. California Chrome alongside Noble Bird early, w/ Arrogate sitting just off them: pic.twitter.com/Xze8gJ7tcv

— TimeformUS (@TimeformUS) January 24, 2017

And it suggests a fast pace, with Noble Bird, Chrome and possibly a blinkered Neolithic going very hard.

But, I don't know if this is just a waste of time. We might just see Secretariat's rail run in the Belmont.

Arrogate could just be way better than all these horses, including Chrome, where pace, or trip doesn't matter. If so, and Arrogate pushes hard early and sprints the 9 furlongs, he probably wins, and might win by daylight.

Best horse, best post. The $1M slot in the starting gate is probably 3-5 to cash for $7 million. That's not a bad ROI.