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Arrogate's In-Running Odds? It's a Shame you Couldn't See it

Yesterday, as everyone knows, Arrogate again proved there's no horse in training anywhere near him in ability, in the world. Back in August, a geared down Arrogate dusted Gun Runner by 15 in the Travers. Yesterday the same thing happened. The only thing different was the margin, but it appears poor old Gun Runner needs an even bigger head start to change the result.

While most folks talked about how impossible the bad start was to overcome - always a fun debate - in this day and age we can actually quantify it. This, thanks to in-running betting.
This type of betting has been around for awhile.

Those who have patronized Betfair for many years, they knew that Calvin Borel's ride on Street Sense was worth a 5-2 (28% chance) answer, when he took his last risky move to be potentially shut-off, around the far turn up the rail. "This is unbelievable" was 8-1 on the far turn. A steeplechase horse in the UK traded at 1000-1 a couple of furlongs from home awhile ago, when he suddenly pulled up. When the horse got going again, after apparently deciding he still wanted to race, a few people were happy, and one or two were really unhappy when he crossed the line first.

Arrogate, after the break while 15 lengths behind had about a 30%-40% chance to still get the job done in the eyes of bettors. Easy peasy; in this new, connected world.

The problem, in my view is: Not too many of us got to see it. In-running wagering could be played in one smaller state, at higher than average rakes, with regulations up the wazoo, after years and years of debate.

Why? Because in North America this view seems to prevail.


One day, perhaps, the Kentucky Derby market will be a vibrant betting medium, with hundreds of millions traded. Horse futures of all types may be wagered on, like a Joe or Jane fills out an NCAA bracket. One day people may be tweeting, "did you get Arrogate at 2-1? I did!" en masse. But at the present time in North America, that day seems a long, long way off.


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