I found Chris's latest pod with Dennycaps interesting for a number of reasons; one of which was the dive into what pools at what track might be more valuable to look at.
Last night at Mohawk the pick 5 pool in race was stout, approaching $100k. For most of the betting, including using the exotics, there were two contenders in leg one, the four and the six. Implied odds suggested the four would be around 7-5 and the six around 2-1.
At the gate, the six was 9-2 and the four was 4-5. Expecting things to correct, the overlay on the 6 appeared not real.
But it was - in the win pool at least. He won and paid $11.90.
Just how much of an overlay was that in the win pool? The horse took about 25% of the pick 5 money (suggesting about 2-1 odds in multis). And get this, this $12 winner kicked off a daily double with the winner of the second race that paid $8.90.
On bad field nights at Woodbine the overbets can be really overbet, and the underbets underbet.
This pick 5 had a mix of both. A $12 winner onto a $3 winner onto a $3 winner onto a $13 winner onto an $18 winner only paid $440. It could've - on other nights - paid three or four times that.
According to multi leg wagers the first race winner was a massive overlay. The 4th and 5th race winners were, too. $20 to win on each of those got you back $430. Spending $60 on pick fives and locking them up gets you back $264 if you hit it for 60 cents.
With the late odds usually highly correlated to multi-leg wager payoffs we might've expected these horses to pay much less. So it's still really hard game. And yes, the pools are fairly efficient. But as Denny noted in the pod, they are not perfectly efficient. Last night at Mohawk sure proved that.
Have a great weekend everyone.
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