A Message from Melissa Nolan's Husband Patrick, to Horse Racing Twitter Regarding Her Passing

With the heaviest heart I am reaching out to all who are saddened by the news of Melissa's recent passing. I've seen and heard the kindest words reflecting what Melissa never wanted to hide, that horse racing was the great passion of her life. She could pick winners with the best of you, but even a bad day at the windows never tempered her joy from being immersed in the spectacle and camaraderie of the track. For the past 21 years I was lucky enough to experience horse racing firsthand with one of the sport’s most loyal and ardent disciples, and through that entire time Melissa never lost her childlike wonderment for the beauty and grace of the equine athlete. Nothing was more exquisite to her than witnessing those majestic creatures flawlessly perform what they were born to do. 

All of us who love this sport long enough remember our bad beats as vividly as our triumphs, and experience tragic lows intertwined with those incredible highs. It becomes an integral part of our lives, and we accept the pain it can cause because we also witness breathtaking magic. Now that Melissa is gone, I worry I may never feel the same levels of agony and ecstasy. Her pure emotions contributed to my own, but I will never give up my love for this sport even if the sensations are less intense. I know that I will always be closest to her when I am at the track, among her racing family. 

Because she was so young, it is natural for people to have questions about her unexpected death. I don't have any explanation, and it's possible that the specific cause will never be known for sure. Melissa loved having a good time, but her father's passing in 2019 was difficult and she struggled with alcohol at times. We went through some rough patches this past winter, but I really believe that she was looking forward to her favorite time of the year as summer approached. Melissa could accomplish anything she put her mind to, and although she didn’t tell me what she was doing, my fear is that she too drastically stopped drinking. The autopsy revealed an enlarged heart, and with it a likelihood her body was not strong enough to handle the shock of withdrawal. It pains me to share this, in part because she concealed her problem well and would be devastated by its revelation, but also because I am ashamed that I let it happen even though I don’t know what I could have done differently. My sole motivation is the hope that it will encourage the idea that you don’t have to do something that hard on your own even if you know you can. 

I wish that it hadn’t taken so long for word of her passing to become known to all who knew her through racing. I lost my wife and partner, but as the touching words you have shared reveal, she meant a great deal to many of you. Please know that your interactions with Melissa, virtually and in person, added to the happiness racing brought her. Thank you for stimulating her insatiable desire to expand and share her knowledge of the sport. Please do what you can to continue her advocacy for what she held so dear.

Thinking Through Pick n's

Good day everyone!

This week on Chris's podcast, I broke down how I try and do better making pick 'n' tickets today, from yesteryear. 

Most of this is influenced by Inside the Pylons and the arguments that ensued on the twitter for so long. The warm and cuddly one gave as good as he got, of course, and it was a fascinating discussion. 

ITP has five hours of discussion on Chris's podcast explaining it better than I could, so I recommend listening if you haven't. But, here's another example that I hope shows, i) building proposed value in a pick 3 and ii) how you're not upset when you miss, because you, in effect, built it to miss (a lower price). 

In Ralphie9's debut yesterday as a guest analyst at Mohawk - where he gave out the pick 5 that paid a whopping $3k for a buck - I wasn't in the same vein. I did not like the pick 5, primarily for the 4th and 5th legs. 

But in the first leg, there was a horse I liked, and in the third leg there was a favorite I did not like. 

The first leg was a perfect pick three key horse, in my view. She was coming off a race where she finished her mile well signalling she was in form, but she was dead on the board at 13-1 the whole time. Around her, the horses who were taking money had a lot of question marks. 

I was going to bet win and exotics, but I wanted to find some gravy for this meal. 

I looked at the double onto the chalk in leg two, but I don't like playing those because any sizeable double in those smaller pools just ups your takeout. Plus they get hammered late so often you never know which way they're going. 

Since I did not like the chalk in three, but did like the chalk in two, there was probably enough for a pick 3. I took two price horses in the third leg. And after I got there, the payoffs were fairly solid (although less than I thought, because of the smaller pick 3 pools this can happen), around $200 for a dollar. 

The favorite I disliked won by an inch, after a perfect trip at 4-5, and it beat my $200 horse. Other than losing by an inch, I didn't care. Why, because I specifically targeted that horse out, to make my ticket pay something worthwhile. 

When ITP and others who have played like this for a hundred years with success get their backs up with the word favorites "defensively", this is kind of why. I'm not upset I didn't use the favorite defensively in the third, because *not* using her was the sole reason for taking my pick 3 ticket. 

The reason I brought up three (legs) being a "magic number" is because it's pretty easy to explain, and it's pretty seamless to do in our heads. Many of you, I bet, would make the exact same pick 3 ticket above when you were presented with the same opinion. When we add 4th legs or 5th legs, it can mess us up. We can get into, "holy hell, I can't miss this ticket, so I better throw more horses in" territory. 

For those that are unhappy with their pick n play, using the ITP "hurdle" method in only three legs, not five, in my opinion, can be a worthwhile exercise. 

It gets us into some good habit forming, and helps train our minds. We are looking to drain opposing money in each leg, while we keep it simple in our working memory. 

And when we get beaten by a chalk we don't like, we simply don't care. We control the tickets we make, and when we create them to avoid a chalk, it's a feature not a bug. It's exactly how we designed them. How can we be mad at that?

Have a very nice Tuesday everyone. And, hell of a hit Nick! Great debut on the telecast. 

Paying Attention to Betting Markets

I think we all pay attention to betting markets in some shape or form. 

If the horse we like is 2-1, we think it has a good chance because the markets agree with our assessment. 

If a Saffie Joseph horse off the claim, picked everywhere, with Irad up off a 147 pound journeyman and 4% trainer, and the horse is dead at 6-1, we pay attention to that, too. 

Where the markets, in my opinion, work for us, is where there's something we don't understand. And that happens in this new world a lot. 

About ten or fifteen years ago it was around 7AM and my phone rang. 

"Are you watching the speed skating?", said a friend on the other line, watching I think it was the Olympics. 

"I'm watching the inside of my eyelids, why are you calling me?" I said. 

"Hans Franzenhans [or whatever] just did a fast time, and I just got filled at 6.0 on betfair, go bet some, he's going to win."

At this point I have FOMO on this, so I get up. 

"Why exactly am I supposed to bet Hans Franzenhans in speed skating again?" I asked. 

"There's moisture coming and it's warming up in there. The favorites will have a tough time on a slower track. The same thing happened in Stuttgart a month ago," he retorted. 

Dumfounded, I make a coffee, open my laptop and see that Hans Franzenhans (or whatever) is down to 4.2 on the exchange. He's not even remotely close to being a pre-race chalk, but he's bet. I pop in a wager, because at this point, how can I argue with this. 

I watch a couple of skaters and no one is close to our bet Hans. 

Then the commentators throw down to the on-ice reporter. 

"I have some news. The Dutch team are worried the track is slowing. It's getting warm. The same thing happened in Stuttgart last month"

I'm like, you have to be kidding me.  

Hans Franzenhans, or whatever, moved down to heavy chalk soon after, and he was the Secretariat of speed skating winning by like 31. There wasn't even a Sham in the race to worry about. 

Hans Franzenhans was never supposed to be bet. He wasn't supposed to be bet when I got him, or probably when my (incredibly sharp) friend got him bet. 

But someone knew this "Stuttgart" thing was possible, and it was reflected in the price. 

This is always tricky for us in horse racing. What money is a real signal led by my friend who wakes me up and other sharps fading this chalk, and what isn't? What's Hans Frazenhans money and what's not? It's up to us to use our detective skills in the game to try and figure it out. It's not easy, but no one said this game is easy. It's just another element of this incredibly interesting game we play. 

Have a great Thursday everyone. 

Preakness Results Bias, Angles, Larmey, Weekend Notes

 Hello everyone!

A few notes from the weekend action, and various other topics. 

First, how about that Preakness ride on Journalism? It's been analyzed on the twitter and elsewhere, so I don't have much to add to that, but it always strikes me how the result dictates how we tend to feel about an occurrence or event. 

Let's for a second forget we saw something absolutely special from the excellent McCarthy colt, but instead saw the horrible side of this move. That is, a horse went down. On national TV. 

The topics today would, of course, be much different. The New York Times would be calling for an end of the sport, NBC News would have a nightly feature. Rispoli would be hammered at least as much as Paco Lopez on a random Wednesday. 

To me, the result doesn't change much. 

If the sport is trying to get rid of dangerous riding so the horses and riders are protected; is worried about the public being able to count the number of whip strikes over six; if raceday meds are a no-no; lasix is cruel; if Kentucky Downs needed to raise juice to pay for "HISA bills" ..... then how is the sport not giving Rispoli three months off?

Is forcing your way out of a bad spot and putting other horses and riders in a dangerous situation only bad if it goes wrong?

"Angles"

I had a fun discussion with one of my most favorite people in racing this weekend - Chris Larmey. The podcast is here for those who might want to listen.  We talked a fair bit about angles, both past and present. 

In the age of Formulator, and CAW bankrolls as large as the real estate value of Santa Anita, angles are sometimes as obsolete as my family's first 237 pound microwave oven, but massaging and subsetting some data (if it's totally logical) can still, in my view, lead us into spots.

Today I find I get some angles to try based on whatever I can find that is outside formulator, or sometimes on a complete whim. Case in point, trainer John Ennis. 

I heard Ennis get interviewed on TVG during the Keeneland meet and he noted his horses weren't fit enough because of a lot of bad weather. It's logical to think - with a little recency modification - that I can flag those this month. 

I'd like to say I am swimming in cash, but only one or two converted. Again, however, the result is not a damnation of the little goofy angle. His horses have run well, and I almost scored big, with some of you I imagine, on Abbi Fede Saturday night at Churchill at 13-1, losing a bank breaking head bob. Epic Ride ran his eyeballs out at Pimlico on the weekend, too. 

CAW's and computer players have a lot of things covered nowadays, but sometimes things as simple as a quick quip in a TVG interview can give us a little info outside the PP's. 

"If it's in the PP's it's in the Price"

This is a Larmey quote that I will modify for one racetrack. 

"If it's in the Aragona odds line it's in the price" is, in my view, as rite as rain. 

But what happens when Aragona, who is very rarely wrong, wrong and the board says his 9-2 morning line horse is a 2-1 shot? It's one of the weird questions I wrestle with as a player. I've gone with the last few - even if I considered them underlaid - because I believe what we were seeing was not in the PP's and it was important. But I have no idea if following the 'against' money with Aragona is wise or stupid. 

Shout out to CDI

How do I give a shout out to the Death Star racetrack?

CDI board meeting today

I do when I find the on-track feed coverage is so damn good. Way to go Tony, Joe and Kevin. Fun discussions, I love having you on in the background while I am navigating a few tracks. 

Smaller Bank, Wanna Play ITP tickets?

I am an unabashed fan of "ITP tickets", and fully realized from talking with many of you that they can be hard to get our heads around. 

In Part II of the discussion with Chris Larmey, I discussed the "Magic Number of Three (legs)" and some practice we can put in, for low stakes in low bankrolls, to embrace the ITP Way. If you're not happy with your pick n's and wanted to dip your toe in with the warm and cuddly twitter poster we call ITP, maybe you'd find it helpful. It helped me. 

Side note -- I had to chuckle this weekend, as when I turned on the Preakness coverage on TVG, Todd immediately mentioned ITP tickets on the telecast. I like Todd a lot, I have heard and believe he's a good guy, and it's cool to see him having fun with the whole ITP thing. It's what the game is - opinions. 

Have a great Monday everyone. And if you're in the Tundra, can someone remind me why Woodbine doesn't race a card on Victoria Day again?

It's Always a Good Time to Play Vertically (Even on the Derby Card)

In the age of pick 4's and 5's and 6's and TVG tickets (and ITP ire), sometimes we have FOMO in not playing them. But most times, for me anyway in this day and age, verticals are where it's at. The transparency of the markets teaches us so much. 

Even on Derby cards. 

In the 9th on Derby Day, the board opened and Zulu Kingdom was bet in almost every pool. I saw a good many comments on twitter that they didn't have the strong open on the Bingo card. Frankly, looking at my numbers, neither did I. 

But there it was. And the funny thing? The exact same phenomenon was noticed in the horse's last at Tampa. The 'afterthought' was bet well and delivered. I suspect this is one of those horses that is better than we can see as handicappers. 

After being hit with the board for the second time in a row, I keyed the horse in the pick 4. 

In the pick 5 which was the previous leg, I spread the race. 

Even after watching the horse win again, I still don't think much of him, but I am clearly missing something, right? 

The vertical markets again helped. 

Flipping to the next, I was on Kopion, like many of you, including Chris at the Sport of Kings pod. It was apparent the morning line was wrong. 

However, the markets again helped me make a betting decision. It was still a soupy track where Kopion had no experience, he was inside. If the market opened soft I'd have to reevaluate, but it didn't. I keyed in the pick 4, and was happy, not sad to see the market confirm my beliefs. 

I don't want to misconstrue that somehow the market is always right; if it was we'd never bet a longshot, nor would favorites be beaten 60% of the time. But on plays like this, they help me decipher things more and more. 

For horizontals three races out we don't have the benefit of an odds board, and it makes things very tough. Sure the CAW's and sharps make good lines, but even they use the market to evaluate if their opinion is sharp or weak. And they pivot in real time just like we do. 

For any new player, or anyone looking to get better, I wholeheartedly am behind honing your skills in the super-tough 2025 game by playing more vertically. Transparency never goes out of style. 

Have a nice Monday everyone!