Paying Attention to Betting Markets

I think we all pay attention to betting markets in some shape or form. 

If the horse we like is 2-1, we think it has a good chance because the markets agree with our assessment. 

If a Saffie Joseph horse off the claim, picked everywhere, with Irad up off a 147 pound journeyman and 4% trainer, and the horse is dead at 6-1, we pay attention to that, too. 

Where the markets, in my opinion, work for us, is where there's something we don't understand. And that happens in this new world a lot. 

About ten or fifteen years ago it was around 7AM and my phone rang. 

"Are you watching the speed skating?", said a friend on the other line, watching I think it was the Olympics. 

"I'm watching the inside of my eyelids, why are you calling me?" I said. 

"Hans Franzenhans [or whatever] just did a fast time, and I just got filled at 6.0 on betfair, go bet some, he's going to win."

At this point I have FOMO on this, so I get up. 

"Why exactly am I supposed to bet Hans Franzenhans in speed skating again?" I asked. 

"There's moisture coming and it's warming up in there. The favorites will have a tough time on a slower track. The same thing happened in Stuttgart a month ago," he retorted. 

Dumfounded, I make a coffee, open my laptop and see that Hans Franzenhans (or whatever) is down to 4.2 on the exchange. He's not even remotely close to being a pre-race chalk, but he's bet. I pop in a wager, because at this point, how can I argue with this. 

I watch a couple of skaters and no one is close to our bet Hans. 

Then the commentators throw down to the on-ice reporter. 

"I have some news. The Dutch team are worried the track is slowing. It's getting warm. The same thing happened in Stuttgart last month"

I'm like, you have to be kidding me.  

Hans Franzenhans, or whatever, moved down to heavy chalk soon after, and he was the Secretariat of speed skating winning by like 31. There wasn't even a Sham in the race to worry about. 

Hans Franzenhans was never supposed to be bet. He wasn't supposed to be bet when I got him, or probably when my (incredibly sharp) friend got him bet. 

But someone knew this "Stuttgart" thing was possible, and it was reflected in the price. 

This is always tricky for us in horse racing. What money is a real signal led by my friend who wakes me up and other sharps fading this chalk, and what isn't? What's Hans Frazenhans money and what's not? It's up to us to use our detective skills in the game to try and figure it out. It's not easy, but no one said this game is easy. It's just another element of this incredibly interesting game we play. 

Have a great Thursday everyone.