I spent a couple of hours the past few days listening to the Bet With the Best podcast with guest Marshall Gramm.
In my view, it is one of the most informative and educational resources one could ever hope to hear on the topic of Computer Assisted Wagering teams.
And as an added bonus, it's super educational for players who are not seeking lower takeout (if they can find it) and for those track execs (yes, especially you Kentucky Downs people), who can't seem to grasp or understand how betting functions and grows.
CAW-Land is an odd place where much is nebulous, and where conspiracy theories can move faster than a knife fight in a phone booth. Marshall breaks down what, in his view, is real and what's Memorex and I think it's a huge service for players. We lose a lot in horse racing, and there's a lot to complain about, but being an informed complainer is always preferred; for me anyway.
The early section of part one could be dry for some, but it does explain how models work. Marshall has done a lot of work on this, including research on one of the best computer gamblers in history, Bill Benter.
The sections on price discovery are valid and informative and should help players navigate the board better.
The rants on source market fee madness and the inability to lower takeout to help the ecosystem at the base are quite well done. For those who don't know how the system is built to function, it's very educational.
The tips on keeping things simple in our betting against these teams is what I've long believed, and it's nice to hear that someone(s) smart like Marshall (and Chris) also adhere to. If we have not developed an edge to price discover and to construct tickets correctly - Herculean tasks in this day and age - how can we beat the pick 5? Superfecta? Super High Five?
The latter part of the pod struck on something I believe 100% to be true. Yes, if we try and beat sharp teams betting into 5% juice for 150 races this weekend we can not possibly win. But if we try and compete where they are not sharpest, we can.
I've opened up probably ten two year old listed stakes or restricted stakes for winners the past few months where they were wildly off in their pre-race pricing. Can you watch a work? Read the way a young horse moves? Have an opinion on talent? I truly believe you can crush them, and when you crush them in a race you can make your entire month, simply because of the math. Those races are there.
Our game has a real problem. Some people at the top, in my opinion, don't know what they're doing when it comes to pricing. As Marshall noted, a place like Keeneland can change the game tomorrow by, say, dropping takeout to 12% win and 15% all exotics with little risk. But as we've seen, Keeneland actually increased takeout and went the other way. Kentucky Downs' policy has been what I'd describe as obscene.
Until they get with the program (if ever) we'll have to navigate this market by making it, in some cases, our entire routine. Chris and Marshall's pod has helped with that. A sincere thank you to both of them.
Have a nice Tuesday everyone.
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