Optix - A Useful Tool to Battle the Sharps

I'm always looking for new ideas or mediums to learn in the game (in that evergreen quest to get better) and I'd been meaning to dive into Optix for some time. I finally bit the bullet over the last week, signed up, and took it for a test drive. 

For me, whether it be for DFS software, or a football handicapping medium, or for horse racing, I want a package to do a few things - i) save me time, ii) be easy enough to use and understand and iii) give me something I won't get in the PP's. I think Optix delivered on all three counts. 

"The Plot" 

Represented by squares and circles, the visual plot represents a neat way to look at the horses based on their running styles and early and late pace figures. It takes a bit to get your head around, but once you do, it can help confirm or deny what you're seeing in the PP's, and I found it to be remarkably accurate. 

Using this in tandem this week it helped me solidify a lean, or opened my eyes to using a horse who would have a favorable set up that I might've not uncovered. It worked well with another package I use. 

In fact, I was ambivalent on a longshot at Colonial that my own research found, but when I was able to see the Optix plot it gave me confidence that I should play the horse. The race played out as the plot detailed, and the horse paid $50 or $60. That was a nice bet. 

Notes

I found the notes feature incredibly useful. There are a lot of races to watch, and replay watching is time consuming. The notes alerted me to races where I may want to look at a replay, or encouraged me to look closer at a running line. It'd take me all day otherwise, and I don't have all day. This is one of the better features I've seen in any sellers' package. They definitely do the work.

The races are also (at several tracks) rated with a grade. I also found this helpful. 

Did this horse who ran eight points slower do so because of raceflow or kickback or a bad trip? There's no need to guess - the notes right beside the horse tell you.

The Horses, and the Data

Optix is not all circles and squares, but a past performance where you can drill down to look at any horse. Their figures, running lines, are all there. It's not hard to get used to and I didn't have to bring up the PP's to confirm or deny anything, really. Reading the lines and other pertinent information is sleek and easy. 

"The Green Report"

This report summarizes trip notes that can portend a good effort. 

Just on Sunday I knew I didn't love Fort Nelson in the 6th at the Spa, and lo and behold, the green report showed a possible bet back on the Bauer horse. I quickly checked out the horse, and thought the 9-2 looked pretty juicy for a possible live bet against a horse I wanted to throw out. He won going away. 

This saves you a lot of time. No, the green report horses aren't locks, but they are possibles. And because some of them are sneaky, they aren't hammered by a CAW 100% of the time. 

The Odds Line Interface

If you're handicapping live, the interface pipes in live odds, and shows you daily double odds. If you wonder if the 20-1 shot you like is going down to 6-1, chances are you'll know. 

In addition, and to me this is a tremendous service to players who don't make odds lines, you can contender rate your horses and the interface will make an odds line for you. You can compare that odds line to the board, double check if you missed anything, and fire away. I think this would be fantastic for, for example, a Breeders Cup card. 

Misc

The above just scratches the surface. There are many other reports, including a hot pace or slow pace report, which is kind of cool. You can sort or search the reports for races you may be interested in. There's a lot here I need to still look into. 

Summary

Sometimes I think there's a misconception that these packages, whether they be HTR or jcapper or Optix, that they will flag horses that simply win. That's of course not the way they work. We have to put in the work and make the decisions. 

But I am of the opinion this package is worth looking into. In fact, for a sports bettor or new player, I would not tell them to read 100 books or download the PP's, I'd probably point them to something like this. I think it would give them a fighting chance. The package uncovers enough nuggets of info that aren't overly public, and everything is linked, so if you're a numbers person that likes to visualize how a race may go, you can weave an opinion. 

I'll go off on a tangent a little now.... this business bothers me. 

Optix is a good package (and there are others), but what's their market? It's the $25k a year player that wants to be a $125k a year player. It's the $125k a year player that wants to be a million dollar a year player. What has the business done to this market? They've destroyed it. The CAW's feast off it, and a barrier to entry is 15% rebates to CAW's, while if you live in a "bad" state, you're screwed and getting nothing back. 

This is a great game, but the pricing and the way it's structured with short-sighted alphabet entities and horsepeople groups does it no favors. A strong ecosystem helps resellers like Optix. It helps third party promoters. And that in turn helps the business.

I wish the sport realized this long ago. It would help just about everyone, and the business might have fifty Optixs to choose from, because the demand would be there.

So, those are my thoughts. And a quick note - I know John a wee bit, and Chris Larmey I think mentioned on the twitter box he does a little work with Optix, but they didn't give me a free look or anything to write a post. I paid my $50 for the week.

Have a great Sunday evening and Monday everyone!

A Vital Listen for Everyday Players (& You too, Track Execs)

I spent a couple of hours the past few days listening to the Bet With the Best podcast with guest Marshall Gramm.  

In my view, it is one of the most informative and educational resources one could ever hope to hear on the topic of Computer Assisted Wagering teams. 

And as an added bonus, it's super educational for players who are not seeking lower takeout (if they can find it) and for those track execs (yes, especially you Kentucky Downs people), who can't seem to grasp or understand how betting functions and grows. 

CAW-Land is an odd place where much is nebulous, and where conspiracy theories can move faster than a knife fight in a phone booth. Marshall breaks down what, in his view, is real and what's Memorex and I think it's a huge service for players. We lose a lot in horse racing, and there's a lot to complain about, but being an informed complainer is always preferred; for me anyway. 

The early section of part one could be dry for some, but it does explain how models work. Marshall has done a lot of work on this, including research on one of the best computer gamblers in history, Bill Benter. 

The sections on price discovery are valid and informative and should help players navigate the board better. 

The rants on source market fee madness and the inability to lower takeout to help the ecosystem at the base are quite well done. For those who don't know how the system is built to function, it's very educational. 

The tips on keeping things simple in our betting against these teams is what I've long believed, and it's nice to hear that someone(s) smart like Marshall (and Chris) also adhere to. If we have not developed an edge to price discover and to construct tickets correctly - Herculean tasks in this day and age - how can we beat the pick 5? Superfecta? Super High Five?

The latter part of the pod struck on something I believe 100% to be true. Yes, if we try and beat sharp teams betting into 5% juice for 150 races this weekend we can not possibly win. But if we try and compete where they are not sharpest, we can. 

I've opened up probably ten two year old listed stakes or restricted stakes for winners the past few months where they were wildly off in their pre-race pricing. Can you watch a work? Read the way a young horse moves? Have an opinion on talent? I truly believe you can crush them, and when you crush them in a race you can make your entire month, simply because of the math. Those races are there. 

Our game has a real problem. Some people at the top, in my opinion, don't know what they're doing when it comes to pricing. As Marshall noted, a place like Keeneland can change the game tomorrow by, say, dropping takeout to 12% win and 15% all exotics with little risk. But as we've seen, Keeneland actually increased takeout and went the other way. Kentucky Downs' policy has been what I'd describe as obscene. 

Until they get with the program (if ever) we'll have to navigate this market by making it, in some cases, our entire routine. Chris and Marshall's pod has helped with that. A sincere thank you to both of them.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone. 

For the Future, it Appears Kentucky Racing is Just About Everything

While I was waiting for the Spa races to be moved off the turf (spoiler, they just were), I noticed a lot of chatter about Keeneland getting the Breeders Cup in ’27.

My first thought was, we better get used to it because I don’t foresee Kentucky racetracks not getting the bulk of the BCs anytime soon. And to me, it makes perfect sense.

When we were kids, we might have learned about comparative advantage in school. For example, a country that makes bread really well and cheaply exports it to others who can’t make it nearly as cost-effectively. It’s a simple concept. Lately, that seems to have gone out the window. 

Canada, with its vast natural resource edge, has been met with policies that have made it harder and harder to extract that advantage. In the US, where technology, innovation, and IC rule the roost for their massive productivity edge, they seem to be focused on trying to make textiles great again.

Meanwhile, Kentucky said (in Gabe Prewitt’s drawl) “not on my watch.” The Bluegrass state knows it’s the horse racing state and seems to want to keep it that way. The state and its lawmakers have poured almost everything into the sport.

Kentucky Downs has taken horses from almost everywhere with its massive purses. Ellis Park holds $100,000 maidens. Even Turfway Park has juiced purses and handle. In harness land, it’s almost obscene what they’ve done to grade 1, 2, and 3 stakes at historical and storied ovals. The entire two- and three-year-old stakes season is an abomination, as Kentucky shovels millions into purses at places like Oak Grove.

We can complain about it—I, and many of you do—but at the very least, we have a horse racing state hell-bent on, well, horse racing. That’s not all bad.

This is why, in my view anyway, the biggest events in this sport will be held in Kentucky. And frankly, would it surprise anyone that the state might be the only one holding horse racing in fifty years? I wouldn’t be surprised. 

I understand our frustration with the Death Star’s takeover. It’s concerning that they’re repeating the same mistakes everyone else has made by solely focusing on increasing supply and neglecting demand. The potential to change takeout rates, develop new mediums, and restore fairness with CAW’s is real and available, yet they dismiss it, throw another few million dollars into a purse, while raising takeout to “pay” for a trackside tent.

However, it’s important to remember that this is the place for horse racing, and they actually know it. They’re constructing something substantial and leveraging their edge. In that sense, it’s refreshing.

Have a nice Thursday, everyone. 

Old Timer Memories of Gate Break Inquiries and "Post" One

Hello everyone, I hope the week is treating you all very well. 

I was feeling a little nostalgic today. If you're interested I will share my thoughts on a couple of items. 

First, for the thousands and thousands of new racefans who read my blog (many from Russian link farms), let me tell you a tale about a gate break. 

It was many years ago now at Santa Anita (I doubt you'd find any even grainy footage on Youtube), and there was a horse named Bayern. 

Out of the gate, the story goes, he veered wildly and slammed into several horses. Two of the horses, again as told by old timers, jumped into the infield and had to be caught by outriders. One horse, owned by a media mogul, was slammed so hard he got down to the quarter in an estimated 37.3 (hard to tell, racing wasn't in-tune with runups way back then). One of the horses with an open bridle that could see it all coming, said "frig this" didn't even leave the gate, and headed back to his stall for a drink. 

Bayern was crowned the winner. 

Meanwhile in the same jurisdiction on Saturday, this happened. I won't elaborate on the commentary that's already been assembled in virtually all corners of this sport, but truly it is one of the most bizarre rulings I think I've ever seen. 

Over in harness racing land, here's another old timer story. 

"What post you got for Saturday?"

"Post one"

"How do you feel about post two?"

"It's pretty good"

Now it's all changed. Everything is a draw. 

"How do you feel about the inside draw, what draw did you get, this horse drew outside, that draw was bad."

Maybe this is what the MAGA guys get excited about when it comes to globalization. Maybe it's Dexter Dunn's fault. Or Andrew McCarthy, or his brother (aka the rightful driver of this year's Big M Pace champ). Blame it on the Kiwis and Aussies. 

Regardless, let's all call draws post positions again. I'll even make up a catchy phrase - LACDPPA - and print red hats if I have to. Please make it so. 

Speaking of draws posts, another old time harness racing truth is under assault - and I don't have the foggiest idea how it got narratived so fast - the rail post at Mohawk and the Meadowlands is a "bad draw".

This is all over the harness press; analysts ask questions about it. Some drivers even talk about it now. 

The thinking seems to be that the turn comes up too fast and it's crippling. Weird, because you know where the turn comes up really fast? Yonkers. You know what post you want at Yonkers? Post one. 

The difference of course is that at Yonkers, drivers push out from the rail to use it as an advantage, whereby at Mohawk (maybe from reading the press, I honestly don't know) drivers outside probably JJ and Louis Roy don't push out from the rail. 

You know when drawing the wood sucks? When you don't push out because you have your head looking right to let five horses in front of you. Then it sucks bad.

I'm a degen bettor, so what do I know, but I had a chuckle a couple of weeks ago. 

Driver Yannick Gingras was being asked about having post one with a trotter in an upcoming race, and if he was "worried about his 'inside draw' because it was so "tricky". He looked a little surprised at the question, politely said no he wasn't worried about it and that he'll probably push out like you have to from there. He said post one was "fine". 

I guess he doesn't read the internet. 

There's my old time whip around racing, where gate breaks were part of the game, draws were called posts, and the rail in harness racing wasn't horrible. 

Have a super day everyone!