California Chrome and #Moobie, Notes

Good morning folks!

The California Chrome press releases of late have been pretty interesting. Yesterday it was announced that Chrome will not run in Newmarket as scheduled. He's too worn out. This change of schedule is what many folks on the twitter (and Sherman, I suppose) and elsewhere were worried about with him, and this trip to turf it in the UK. The horse has been in training since he was a two year old, with very little extended paddock time. If he does get beaten badly at Ascot on the deeper turf, then he has to fly home, have a few weeks off, and who knows where he shows up next. That sporting gesture (that might be more about stud money than a sporting gesture) could really end up messing up his year in North America. And with Shared Belief on the shelf, it might've been costly. Time will tell.

In addition, in the SI piece, you can see the overt references that the camp itself is not very in sync. 

Regardless, this horse has provided the sport with more than just column inches. I throw any bias with owners decisions or personalities out the window and just cheer for him. He seems to always show up and do his job, despite what's going on around him. Good, honest racehorse and a bit of a throwback.

I have read similar talk with #Moobie and his trip from Dubai to here to race in the Derby. That trip is too "taxing" and he won't run well because of it. I tend to disagree with that. Being acclimatized in a far away place, then shipping over to America to race in the Derby with a fresh horse is far different than what California Chrome has been asked to do. It's also far easier to do what he is doing than American horses who go to Dubai and come back and race do. If Moobie runs poorly, he might've not liked the track, not be good enough or 100 other excuses, but I think the trip and travel should not be one of them.

Notes: 

Super High Five carryover at Northfield tonight.

The Big M is running the 4 in 40, a pick 4 in forty minutes on Saturday.

I went through the Oaks last night. I am unsure who I will bet, but I am leaning towards the rail filly of Chuck Fipke's if the odds are okay.

Cool interactive of Derby results. h/t to Thorotrends.

The Derby draw is today. It's on TV in the US; up in Canada no one knows :)

Taken the Tbred Racing Survey? Filled out the IRS petition from the NTRA?


Have a nice Wednesday everyone.

If _______ Wins the Kentucky Derby .......

Derby week is in a full court press. Everyone is getting ready, talking about their favorite charges. Everyone is pumped. Heck, no one seems to be even too upset with Churchill Downs Inc yet.  But soon that will all change.

As soon as the Derby winner crosses the wire, hyperbole, shock, amazement and other adjectives and some adverbs will ensue. The winner will have a place in history.

Here's a run down of the pull that each horse has, as a Derby winner, and what narrative might surround him (or her), post race. (hold it, not her, we don't like fillies in the Derby anymore.)

Anyhoo, here we go.

Dortmund - This one lights the Triple Crown fires on the twitter. There will be dueling articles about how it might save racing and help US viewership of a European soccer team's games. Since he's so big, everyone will want to buy giant sized yearlings. If he wins, it has coattails.

American Pharoah - Ditto with Dortmund, but perhaps with even more steam. Very little downside. Although, perhaps, Peta or the New York Times will write a scathing article about how racing people can't spell a horse's name. This, of course, causes the animal feelings of negative self worth because he is made fun of by other horses with properly spelled names.

International Star - Ken and Sarah Ramsey own this horse, and I've never heard of them. Have you? Didn't think so. This makes this horse the people's champ.

Carpe Diem - A win would allow Todd Pletcher to pass Chip Wooley in all time Derby training wins. 

Frosted - If Frosted wins, every owner in North America will be sending their horse in to get their palate trimmed. The American Veterinary Association's pick.

Mubtaahij - There are several obvious memes with this horse - he will have trouble trending on twitter because people can't spell his name, the most-excellent Candice Curtis-led hashtag #Moobie will get the exposure it deserves. But the big thing is that he will have won without lasix. The anti-lasix forces will have a big summer. UK racing writers will beam in pride that a dude from across the pond won the "American cowboy race". Plenty here.

War Story - This will probably result in a movie being made five years from now titled "75 to 1"

Stanford - From a branding perspective, it's probably not great for Thoroughbred racing to have a Derby winner named after a school no one can afford to go to. On the plus side, @notthetoddster would be fun on twitter.

Tencendur - From the buzz I am reading, I am not even sure this horse is in the field. This probably ensures that all post Derby chatter will be about boxing.

Materiality - This will finally end the gawd-awful Apollo talk; until next year when another one comes up and the Apollo narrative goes from "can't win", to "they don't win often".

El Kabeir - If this guy wins the words 'Borail' will trend on the twitter, Calvin Borel will start charging six figures for Derby mounts. And he'll get it.

Upstart - This one will not elicit too much of a reaction. Upstart is a hard trying, grinder, honest to goodness racehorse. The public doesn't like when those win. He's like cheering for an accountant.

Far Right - This horse ensures the words "new shooter" are heard for two full weeks. Since most of us want that phrase banished from horse racing, I can't see him having too many fans.

Itsaknockout - For about five hours after the Derby - with the big fight being telecast - this will be an insufferable win. By Sunday everyone will shift and the conversation will be about why Dortmund lost.

Firing Line - If this horse wins this comment will trend on the twitter: "He almost beat Dortmund and he was 8 times the odds. Me stupid head." Total Derby hand wringer.

Danzig Moon - This one probably ensures there will be no Triple Crown, and Chris Kay will have to draft a press release that despite Eagles cover bands and a full stakes menu for the Belmont, year over year handle was quizzically down.

Bolo - A good turf horse has not won the Derby since forever (or 2012). This one will cause mucho-consternation. 

Keen Ice - This will be the Mine That Bird reaction without Calvin Borel helping it.

Mr Z - "Coach" trends. 143,542 bettors who bet him in his last few and lost their shirts get really mad.

Ocho Ocho Ocho - McKinsey writes a press release about how this broadens racing's demographic. Otherwise, people will be just scratching their heads and talking about new shooters.

I am not sure who I am betting for the Derby presented by Yum brands (I think that's KFC and stuff like that), but there's my wrap of what you may expect post-Derby if your horse wins.

Enjoy your day everyone.

Steam!, Uncoupling, Quick Pick 4's & Notes

Good day racing fans and bettors!

Yesterday we saw tweets about a Derby horse that might be 1-9 come post time if this keeps up - American Pharoah. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice horse obviously, but wow, have we seen this much steam in recent memory? I don't think Big Brown had this much, but then again, that was with twitter in its infancy. This is a steam-o-rama. I'm expecting.....

American Pharoah just beat Hidalgo in a race from Baghdad to Tehran, then worked 4 furlongs in 44.2 to cool down. #APsteam
— Pullthepocket (@Pullthepocket) April 26, 2015

Boardroom Doug Savlatore then risked alienating followers as badly as when he posted screen shots of a circa 1995 Holy Bull t-shirt he still wears.

I will enthusiastically be betting against American Pharoah in the Derby. I believe he'll be a pace causality & might miss the entire ticket
— Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) April 27, 2015

You know what - this is great! Silly season Derby week is fun, exciting and what horse racing is about on social media. If you think Carpe Diem will stop at the half and get a Bud Light from a drunk guy in the infield and win going away, go for it. If you think Dortmund is going to win the Triple Crown because you like him so much, have at it. If you think Moobie will end the UAE Derby curse and a late jockey switch to Urkel will only slightly depress his fair odds, right on baby. It's fun and it's what this week is about.

Back to betting jargon: New York looks to uncouple entries in bigger races. Amen! I remember, long ago now, chatting with a Betfair fellow at a conference and we were talking about uncoupled entries on that platform. The handle they brought in with two entries rather one was telling. He noted "why would we ever want to change it if bettors are telling us they want it?" Umm, yah.

I am seeing tweets that the Belmont Stakes card this year is going to have:

a) Concerts with cover bands
b) Dancing penguins
c) Party favors
and
d) As an aside, some horse races

I made up that list, but I think, from what I read, it's accurate.

Long gone are the Bemont days where we can bet two 12 horse maidens in the pick 4 sequence and try to get some prices before the big races start - some of them with heavy chalk. I miss those days, but then again, I'm a bettor. I don't look at PP's for dancing penguins. I don't go to the Belmont to see a cover band.

Canadian problems. We have like 7 sports networks here and in strange twists of fate, horse racing is about as popular to them as a tiddly winks world championship in Ulan Bator. We just see so little racing. But......

nice to see Oaks and Derby coverage on @TSN_Sports. TSN2 Friday from 3-6 and Saturday from Noon-7pm on TSN5 @Pullthepocket
— Angle John (@Raps7) April 27, 2015

Survey! Take it here if you like if you bet the races.

New York state upholds and lays down the Lou Pena penalties.

This weekend, pre Derby, the Big M is doing a "4 in 40" - a pick four that only takes 40 minutes. It's being run while we wait for the Derby. I am sure there will be free PP's if you want to partake. Takeout is only 15%.

Have a nice Monday everyone!