Monday, March 8, 2010

Systems, Equipment and Smart Cash?

Our Swedish visitor Janne noted below in the comments section that the $144 ticket that hit the $9M pick 7 in Sweden last week was selected as a group of tickets using a type of software available in that country. Doing a google search I can not seem to find out what it is, or what it does, but I am assuming it is a software which helps you construct tickets like Crist in his famous book Exotic Betting.

I am a huge believer in such ticket construction. Just like you should not weight a longshot in a tri bet like you would a short priced horse, I believe the same thing should be done in horizontal wagers. As well, with a limited bankroll you have to take your shot, and allowing you to weight horses based on that is super-important. The takeout for a pick 6 or 7 is high, and the sharks swimming in these pools cumbersome. We need to take a stand.

I use, for all my major pick 4 and pick 6 plays, the A,B,C type ticket constructor at the Del Mar site. For me it is a very worthwhile tool. If you are the type of bettor who has trouble weighting and making proper horizontal plays without overlap, give it a shot and let me know if you like it.

Ray at Paceadvantage.com has a poll question up: "Which factor influences the Win Pool Odds the most? (Multiple choices allowed)"

So far, whale betting and program info are leading the way. I wonder, after last weeks news about Michigan and the investigation going on there, if we should add another choice!

Blacks a Fake won a big one downunder. It always amazes me when I watch an overseas race, whether it be trotters or pacers - the lack of equipment on the horses. Are all these horses so much better gaited? Or am I just using anecdotal evidence and my claim is wrong to begin with?



I was perusing the betting in different nations this past week. Here is a chart, with the rakes for some of the countries.

Australia, about $8.5B bet (US), with an average take of 13%.

The UK, with a 10% rake. They bet huge amounts.

Japan, with not too much competition in 2008, bets a whack.

Remind me not to play racing in Peru.

I am guessing the South Africa 60% takeout is a misprint. I heard they have been trying to grow racing down there, so they can not possibly be sinking cash into a business to grow it, with 60% takes. If it is not a misprint, I have a suggestion for better use of the money used for racing - get a bucket, put all the money in it, and light it on fire. At least you will get some heat, and maybe be able to roast a hot dog for lunch; because you sure as heck ain't going to get any long term customers.

Last up, Lou Pena is on fire. On several chat boards there are the inevitable questions about "how does he do it?" I don't know how or what, or whatever, but I do know these guys are tough to make any scratch on, despite their monster win percentages. At the Meadowlands for example, $2 bet on every Lou horse gets you back about 10 points on your money. That sounds great, but really is it? Take one horse out of the equation (Letsgetitstarted) and you struggle to break even. Overall his wins produce an average odds of less than 5-2; again making it difficult to make any scratch.

With trainers like that I have only found one strategy that works - when they are in the race, sit it out. It seems unless you are on the ground floor, get the first several horses at prices and then ride it out, you end up chasing your tail, with more ROI negative propositions than positive ones.

Has anyone ever devised a profitable strategy for eventually overbet supertrainers?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Jokersystem is indeed a tool for creating spread tickets and allows you to weigh the horses after the criterias you want to use. You can for example build your bets after the a-b-c standard (or a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h) or you can make "demands" that some of the winning horses have to be driven by a certain driver or have to have a certain post positions. The basic idea for the system is that you pay more for the value picks that you have in certain races.

When you pick five horses, for example in a leg of a pick 6, everyone of those five horses cost you the same amount. Using the Jokersystem you can weigh more of your money on maybe one or to of the horses. You still have a horse among those five that you believe has a better shot at winning than the others, right?

I know bettors who construct their bets on V75 purely on statistics and use the Jokersystem as their tool for this. There is comprehensive statistics on the V75 from the 1993 to present day that can be used when constructing your bets with the Jokersystem. You can download the race cards to the system and they are updated live until post-time.

The thing to remember is that you still have to succeed in your handicapping of the races. Without this you wont cash any tickets no matter how useful the Jokersystem is. Of course you need a bit of luck as well as the jackpot winner from last week...

Best regards,
Janne

Anonymous said...

Funny to hear about a betting ring, especially after a 4 horse entry. (off at 3/5) in a stake race, on Sunday at Woodbine, was off the board and the triactor paying a relatively very small anount.

Someone please tell me it ain't so.