Friday, June 25, 2010

North America Cup Analysis & Odds Line

This year's world's richest harness race for pacers has been called one of the most contentious ever. I am in that camp as well, because on paper, with whatever handicapping tool you want to use, there are several possibles. Unless someone steps up big time and a couple contenders have an off day, this should be a trip-fuelled result.

It is for this reason that I will be building an odds line and sticking to it. If one of my horses are an overlay, I will build tickets around him. If they are too overbet when compared to my odds line, I will be pitching them. Although I am leaning to one colt, I do not see a huge standout, now horse.

Here are some thoughts on each horse, and what I think are their relative chances via my odds line.

1. We Will See - Brett Miller

On paper it looks like he can win this with some luck, however, I feel he is a longshot. He got a dream trip last time and could only get up by a nose, or long head. He is going to have to move forward off last week to win this, and I think last week was his bottom.

My fair odds: 20-1

2. Fred And Ginger - Dave Palone

I was somewhat surprised that this colt is 12-1 ML and if I get anywhere near that I will be betting him. He is very fast (he is the top speed figure horse in the race) and has shown he is the class of these in previous efforts. He had a zero-chance trip last time, yet still flew home. No horse would have been able to muster much more than a third last time. The kicker for me: He was under the weather last week, and they were careful with him, unsure that he would race well at all. This colt can and should move up. My main concern is the post. If Palone eases out and moves to the wood, he will more than likely never get out. If I play him, I hope he blasts and doesn't let anyone by.

My fair odds: 5-1

3. Rock n' Roll Heaven - John Campbell

What can we say about him that the past performance's don't show? Not much. Everyone knows that he has had trouble at the half, but he did alright last time. The one concern I do have is that he was in a brutal division last time and he was beyond all out. He was very tired at the end. Is it possible he regresses off that effort? It's one of two small potential chinks in his armour and for that reason he is docked somewhat in my odds line. He is a likely favorite and I feel he will be somewhat overbet.

My fair odds: 4-1

4. All Speed Hanover - Ron Pierce

This colt is fast, tough; a true beast. And he has a number of things going for him. First, he was not taxed in his elimination at all, flying home. Two, he was not in fine fettle with signs of sickness in his race before that. Three, watching him warmup last week told my eyes that he is a sound racehorse; a true champ's presence. This week, Vanderkemp noted he is clean and healthy in interviews and he drove perfectly last week with the headpole. Can he move up off last week? Logic would say yes, and if he does the others are in huge trouble.

My fair odds: 5-2

5. Art Professor - Yannick Gingras

Simply a longshot for me.

My fair odds: 120-1

6. Sportswriter - Mark MacDonald

Showing his talent from last years Metro, he raced really well last time. The million dollar question for me is, will he regress off getting torched, or will he be alright? Did we see his bottom? You have to take a stand somewhere and I feel he will be overbet off last week, but if he's right and if he does move up, all it may take is a trip.

My fair odds: 6-1

7. Delmarvelous - Brian Sears

This horse is a little funky. He at times looks like he wants to bolt off the track, but last time he sat nicely. Brian seems to get along with him. However, if he can't win off a trip like last week, I feel he is only a longshot.

My fair odds: 30-1

8. One More Laugh - Tim Tetrick

Is he fast? Yessir. Has he been fast this year? No, not like last year. He looked fairly bumpy last time to me and he had trouble going by Piece of the Rock. He was also all out and very tired at the end of his mile. He will have to improve this week, however, I give him a little odds boost due to his back class speed.


My fair odds: 14-1

9. Kyle Major - Jody Jamieson

On paper he is a strong contender. Add the post position and him having to work very hard in the elim (I did not think he looked good at the wire, or on the track), and I can not back him unless he is fairly long on the board.

My fair odds: 16-1

10. Piece of the Rock - Paul MacDonnell

Here is a nice little colt out in no-man's land. He raced well last time, however is only a longshot in my book.

My fair odds: 100-1

Well Said 2009 (Standardbred Canada photo)

This edition of the Cup is perhaps the best betting race since its inception in 1984. There are a number of contenders, and a number of ways to play this race. Even my premise, that I want fresher horses who were not taxed in their elimination, is not at all written in stone, and you could have a completely different odds line than I do. For example, Well Said came into the race off some very bad lines, where he looked worn and tired. All he did was blow them away off back class.

In the end I have All Speed Hanover as my most likely winner. He has a Rock n Roll Hanover type situation in front of him: He is fresh, seemingly sound, fit, had a nice prep last week that should not have taken anything out of him. He also has tremendous back class as witnessed in last years BC.

I also like Fred and Ginger and feel if the morning line is right, it means value. He had a no shot trip and comes into the race in seemingly fine fettle. 48 miles over the Meadows, the top speed figures in the race, and a smoking last eighth last week should not be taken lightly.

If those two colts get a decent trip and are on their game, someone is going to have to be very good to beat them, in my opinion.
Early Cup Crowd (Standardbred Canada Photo)

Whatever way you go in this race, good luck. If you hit, I truly believe this race will reward you with value.


Notes:

For a free printable Trackit program for the event you can get one here. I think there will be free programs somewhere, but I am too lazy to find them. Maybe someone who is not lazy can leave a link in the comments section :)


The Consolation in race six has three of my watchlist horses in it. Allthatgltrsisgold, OK Commander and Stonebridge Tonic. The last one will provide good betting value from the ten I think. He is a really nice horse.

Western Silk in the $660k Fan Hanover (race 5) seems to have problems in detention. However, going back in with a short break she might be better this time. If so, there might be value with her. She is an extremely fast filly.

Want to cheer for the little guy to win a big one? Try Piece of the Rock. Good luck guys!!!

If you are going and have not been, watch the traffic. The G20 is in town, but more importantly it's at Mohawk and people go to Mohawk. Geez, I should not even mention that; it gets me going. I am still annoyed we were at Woodbine all those wasted years. :)

Good luck at the windows everyone.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

You are so right with the depth here. If you dont bet this race, you dont like racing. I am going to All Speed or Sportswriter, but if they take too much money I will find someone ;)

Rog

Pacingguy said...

I'm looking forward to this race; in fact I am looking forward to the whole card. I know on paper I like RNR, but it is defintely a wide open race so it will be a look for value.

G20 in town? Maybe they want to help stimulate the economy by showing up at Mohawk? We can use all the help.

Anonymous said...

Your buddy Roy loves that Delmarvelous!