I was recently wondering where to watch an F1 car race in the U.S. and saw it's on Apple, after ESPN lost the rights. This app, to just watch a car race, joins many other subscription sites that are needed to watch sports. Like Amazon's to watch Thursday Night Football, Netflix's to watch Christmas Day NFL games, and Peacock's to watch an NFL playoff game (and I'm sure I'm missing many others).
The U.S. congress has began looking into these practices. Leaving aside that I don't blame you if you cringe when the government does such things, it's probably a discussion worth having, right?
Americans are pretty rich (disposable per capita income in the US is around $63k versus Canada's $35k for example), but when is the cost too much even for them? One would think it has to come, and the market will have to correct. But there to me is the problem.
The sports broadcast market is so fractured, to change pricing and distribution, you have to unravel TV deals that are 5 or 10 years out, with five or six or ten different entities. And we can't forget player power - the first time the NFL salary cap is proposed to be reduced, there's going to be hell to pay from the NFLPA.
Demand can go down and revenue can crack, but to fix it, the response will be like solving several Rubik's cubes (without AI) with your hands tied behind your back.
I can't help but think it's a lot like our sport.
Horse racing moved to excess as a monopoly - we got tons of money in from government and slots, handle was growing with the Internet betting advantage - and nothing moved. It was virtually the status quo.
Then the cracks game; handle fell, interest fell, and the sport lost gamblers to other games and vocations. This happened year after year. Every one of us saw it and lived it.
And still nothing moved. Takeout is as high or higher than 10 years ago; than 20 years ago. Effective takeout with CAW's has risen even more than that.
The retail player has been demolished, and continues to be, while the sport did and does virtually nothing (ABR party buses and Youtube influencers don't count).
This sport - just like the streaming environment - is complex, with tentacles and fiefdoms as far as the eye can see. It can't solve multiple Rubik's cubes, hell I don't think it can solve one, even with AI.
For McDonald's, global supply change issues with the pandemic resulted in a 40% increase in menu prices from 2020-2024. Because consumers expected it, the gravy train of high prices helped profits at the food giant..... until they didn't.
When demand fell, McDonald's (and others) pivoted. Suddenly, less than a year later we could order $4 meal deals for breakfast and $1 coffees again.
McDonald's saw the change in demand and had no choice but to respond. It was fast and commensurate - it was exactly the way things should work.
Racing could never have hoped to have done that. And, in my view (which might be worth what you pay to read it), logically the sports leagues will find themselves in the same boat at some point. The NFL and MLB and F1 are structured a lot closer to the 5th at Churchill than they are to a fast food joint.
It's in reference to the "custom" PP's post that's been floating around social media. There's a ton of information in the piece from someone who is pretty sharp, and knows the inner workings of the game.
These PP's are fairly straightforward, however what's caught most people's eye are the vet notes supplied in them. The notes include dates of injections and shockwave therapy treatments.
I'm no vet - I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night - but from what I know, shockwave therapy is generally used for tendon or soft tissues. It helps a sore horse and supposedly speeds up healing. I don't know the current regulations, but with the "off date" listed on these PP's I would surmise you can't enter a horse within one month after a treatment.
Injections are fairly routine, and it looks like we're looking at two weeks pause for some (which is one of the reasons a lot of trainers don't enter back within 15 days).
Shockwave being a month makes sense, as well, because this is a pretty powerful treatment (again, as I have understood it). For Toronto area handicappers you may have heard the rumors over the years (in the wild west of the 2000-2010 era especially) about specific trainer-owned shock wave machines. The rumor was they were using it on, or a couple of days, before race day; which is flat-out cheating and frowned upon for obvious reasons.
I really liked that Doug broke this down, because this is the back side of the game that many don't know. We've read some opinion about how we'd like to get rid of HISA, or regulatory vets, and we should "smoke em if you got em". But injecting, or shockwaving near race day, or the many other backstretch remedies to make a horse "go faster" are dangerous practices. Someone has to look out for the horses, and this is one way they do.
Have a great Monday everyone. And thanks for taking the time to do the video Doug.
Last night's North America Cup card is in the books. With good weather, a decent crowd pumped $5.6 million through the windows. WEG reported the amount bet on the Cup itself was a record.
As for the races ....
Trainer Marcus Melander seemed to have his horses ready, and it started in the Goodtimes where Neighver Punt delivered solidly at a nice 5-2. The colt raced barefoot, and cruised home nicely. I thought Magic Punk, a deserved favorite, raced just okay.
Regardless, the Hambo winner likely raced Friday night at the Meadowlands in the NJSS Final. Aside - Big Ranger set the track record at Scioto last night, and I thought looked the part of a Hambeltonian horse.
Lexus Kody is back! I had this horse as one of the four obvious ones to use to close out the pick 5, but the way he raced you only needed to key the big fella (which I did not!). Snubbed for HOY last year, maybe he's pissed. Whatever the case, he was super.
Melander's big night got better when Bourbanista won the Armbro Flight like an 8-5 shot, but paid $84. In my write up I talked about how everyone was off form, and if we looked at the race, this was one of the few that was on form. I didn't bet flat, but I actually had the tri in this race before Bravo Angel got tossed, in what I thought was a typical harness racing tic tac type call. I guess I'm biased.
Burke's Indiana mare must've warmed up like an old lawn mower or something, because that horse was dead on the board in every pool. I liked her on the form, but she raced blah.
I whiffed on Miki and Minnie; she was super, and when she was chalk over the Per mare, I think that told us something. Twin B Joe Fresh took a ton of money (word was she tied up last week) and was bad again. Maybe this grand mare has had it with racing at age six. It happens.
The board for the Mohawk Gold Cup opened with two main contenders - Menary's Ervin Hanover and Doc Moore's Prince Hal Hanover. The sneaky money horse was Lou Hill with Doug Mcnair. All three raced well, and a third over steer from Dexter Dunn got the job done for the fastest horse in Canadian history. It was another entertaining race.
The anticipation for the Fan Hanover was pretty palpable for harness geeks like us, with Loua Dipa meeting Jersey sires stakes champion Be Perfect BG. I was surprised that the pick 3 money showed Be Perfect BG a slight chalk, which made me wonder if Loua Dipa backers were missing something.
Perhaps we were, as it's possible she was a little flat, getting a nice trip to only beat the Perfect Sting filly by a short head. She paid a pretty generous 6-5.
Regardless, I am shaking my head at this race a little. I believe these two fillies are very good, and Loua Dipa one of the best I've seen in a long time, but The Stable filly was not too far back in third, and Sangria Summer was only another length back, closing from deep.
It's an immutable truth for both breeds - when we see something truly special there are gaps in the field, and the top one or ones have separation. Although the time was fast we didn't see that here. I'm interested to watch these two the rest of the year. Is Loua Dipa just fast or is she special? Jury is still out, in my view.
In the big one, Odds on Mr. Mamba, drifted his way to a half length win at 2-1, beating a game Brandon Blvd with Beau Jangles a nose back in third. This was pretty much a carbon copy of the elimination, with the exact same tri.
I think Odds on Mr. Mamba is a nice, fast horse, but I can't help but think he has some physical issues. They had a week to fix things and it didn't look like they were fixed. He didn't improve third start off a layoff; he raced about the same as he did last week.
Either way, back to reality: Great job you little ball of bay gelding fire. The Wrenn's are fantastic people. The horse tries his ass off. He can flat out fly for a piece. I am so happy for y'all.
Brandon Blvd raced once again, fine. I thought he was fine last year at Lexington, fine in the Somebeachsomewhere, fine in his elimination. I was happy to see trainer Andrew Harris get a big piece. The barn drew 10 in the Cup, 10 in the Mohawk Gold Cup and Yo Tillie was scratched sick in the Armbro Flight.
I thought Beau raced pretty much like he did last week in his elimination. He got a nice half, control of the race, and (in something we rarely see in this race) the back half was faster than the first half. Kudos to Bob McClure for a beautiful steer.
I know WEG employees yell at me on twitter (not really, you're all nice) but if we're being truly analytical, Beau has kind of raced the same his whole life, right? Like we noted above, a special horse separates and the field is strung out. Beau did that against local horses like Borderline Mobby or Redland Rocket Man, but failed to do it in his Metro or Breeders Crown. Those fields were bunched at the finish and Beau felt the stick to win those races.
This year a fresh Brandon Blvd can obviously go with him, and a horse who went in 147.4 last year in the confines of Gabeland entered against him, and beat him on the square twice. I think Beau's a fine horse, he's going to finish the year with a lot of money, he's game. He's a really nice horse. But damn, stop yelling at me for not drinking the Kool Aid, lol.
I was sad for the Legace's because their colt just didn't seem to fire on such an important night. I can't help but think there are going to be better days for this son of Sweet Lou.
As for the crop, I'm not sure if it's going to end up being looked at as one of the better ones. Again, when you're three across the track with horses another length back in 4th or 5th or 6th in major grade one stakes, it's probably a fair take. But, I still find it exciting. I'm looking forward to the Meadowlands Pace. I might even bet Beau if he's a price, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it Randy Waples!
I hope your night went well at the windows and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Since this is what I think is probably the biggest card of the year in the sport, I figured I'd break ranks with my usual drivel and do some handicapping.
Perhaps a few of you thoroughbred players want to tune in and enjoy a big card Saturday night with your hitched-wagon cousins, so here we go, with the pick 6 from races 6 through 11 (and a few other plays).
Race 6
This race appears to run through the veteran Stonebridge Helios, who is such a classy animal. There really isn't a whole lot of speed in here, so he should get what he wants. Dublin Dasher should fire out and get a nice trip, and is probably a threat to the chalk. Regardless, I have nothing inventive here.
Race 7 Gr II Armbro Flight
I'll want to get involved here, because I think although potential favorite Yo Tillie has a gaudy win loss record she's never done anything special in my eye, like step away from good horses or overcome a trip. I can't help but feel she'll be one of those 4 year olds where the excuse about the "transition" is used, when in fact she's just not fast enough.
Last week was probably the right time to fade (coming off a crawl home in :28.4 the week before), but maybe we can strike twice and get some value.
But.........
Where do we go? That's a problem because so many of these horses have question marks, especially the Svanstet trio who are talented but don't look close to on-form. Maybe this lowers the price even more on Yo Tillie as bettors default to her.
I will probably go to post 11, the trailing spot, for a poke on Miracle Maven. She almost beat Bravo Angel off a long break, then coasted home nicely against last year's Oaks winner Coversano, who I think is a nice filly and was ready for a good layoff barn. She tuned up with a qualifier that to my eye was just fine. We'll likely get a really nice price (I hope), and we have for my money, the best driver in the sport behind her to overcome the crap starting slot.
Race 8 Gr I Roses Are Red
I think there's at least some chance Twin B Joe Fresh is done, and Miki and Minnie, who should take money, didn't overly impress me last week. Both can win I suppose, but I don't want them on my tickets. I think the race goes through Louies Girl, who I thought overcame a terrible drive last time. She should by all rights be a strong favorite; if she isn't, I think they're telling us something.
I am interested in Always Dawn and Rodeo Drive Deo underneath. If either win, the pick n prices will be good.
Race 9 Mohawk Gold Cup
It's always nice to watch the aged division tussle and the race office has carded a nice race here! The biggest question to me is: What price do we want to take on Ervin Hanover from his bad post?
I think he'll take a beating like most Menary horses, and I think I have to use two horses instead that can help us separate - Calicojack Hanover (who I think could be better this week) and Coaches Corner (who raced well to be 5th in this race last year). I don't love either of them, and if Ervin beats me from out there, so be it, but this feels like a race I have to try something.
Race 10 The Fan Hanover Gr I
What a horse race.
To me, Loua Dipa is the most talented horse in the sport. Lots of folks like to get caught up in win-loss records, but if you're gonna be called a star, you better show me something I haven't seen before. And she certainly has. What horse in racing could throw a 52.2 middle half while looking like they were strolling in a qualifier? This is a pretty special animal.
But she's lost a few and she's quirky at times. And her main foe - the 9 for 9 Be Perfect BG - is fast! I am so interested in this race as a fan.
People will want to "get by" with both, but we can't do that, so we'll key the big filly.
Race 11 The North America Cup Gr I
The post draw might've changed the mix on outcomes here (Beau's chances up with a perfect post, Brandon Blvd's chances down with the worst one), but I still think this is a very fun horse race.
Mamba is obviously a very nice horse, and I can't help but think we haven't seen his true bottom yet. He probably met his two year old top in the elimination, but the way he did it tells us there's more in the tank. Third off a layoff should have him at his best.
I suppose we have to caution this with a Harvey Packism: We never want to take low prices in harness racing on horses that can't make their own race. Mamba hasn't shown he's versatile enough to make his own race, and with leavers outside of him, James can get himself into a lot of trouble here.
He also did end up in the 10 path in his elim, which often signals a physical issue. If he's under around 9-5 I won't bet win. It's why we make odds lines!
Beau backers have aligned that the colt has to be better this week, but I wonder if some of that is from emotional investment. His top last year was 48 and change, and he probably ran to it last week, while losing to two horses that are in this very race. Horses can be better week to week, but we need to also weigh the probability that last week showed us how fast he can go.
The Ainslie "beaten favorite" angle worked long ago because horses who were beaten favorites were ignored the next week. This beaten favorite might even be favorite again. To me the logic is clear here.
In the elim, I think the value lied in pitching Beau out of the exacta. This week the play for me is to pitch him out of the super. If last week was his bottom, a Bob overdrive (something the trainer doesn't mind) could have him right off the super. Once again, if he fires a big one on the front and beats us - we tip our caps and turn the page.
My super will probably look something like 3-4810-14810-1247810. It should pay something if it hits.
I'm generally bad on stakes nights like this, which usually end up chalk-laden, so I look to the undercard.... but I'm not good enough to see much there either.
Harness racing, much like Thoroughbred racing today, has a few sneaky horses every card, but everyone seems to find them now. Exactly Correct, years ago, I think would be a solid key in race 11, but this 4-1 ML favorite will probably be 4-5. I'll tune in and hope.
I do see a potential chance Scorpion Seelster wins race 13 at a big price with Jody. Everyone will be on Borderline Mobby and I think he's a fine horse, but I hate unreliable horses at short prices. In the first race I like Crack Shot, who by all rights should be able to crush a horse like Waffle Blue Chip.
Good luck everyone, and enjoy the great racing they have in store for us at Mohawk!
I found yesterday, from morning to late in the evening, a real treat. This sport, from the pageantry of a Triple Crown race, to eliminations for a set of very good harness races, can deliver a lot of excitement in one single day.
Let's go to Mohawk!
The tilt in the (sadly) elimination of the North America Cup was the talk of the sport. This race felt much more like a thoroughbred race to me, where horses are meeting truly for a "first time".
Beau Jangles toiled at home most of his life, and only had a couple races against open competition. Indiana World Champion Odds on Mr. Mamba hadn't traveled. And Brandon Blvd was here last year, but to me his form cycle was over the top for the Breeders Crown. He was coming off five races where he had to go sub 1:50, and he shipped north from the Lexington heat. I think he was kinda chewed come the final.
We were likely going to see these three good colts meet, when all three were fresh.
I think this race delivered in spades.
Odds on Mr. Mamba came into the race having shown a tremendous cruising speed, and he seemed to never get tired. He surely was a very impressive winner in a super-fun horse race, but I wonder if the glass is half full or empty for next week's final.
To go full speed in a harness race, things have to go very well from an energy distribution (fractions) standpoint, and this gelding might have shown us a kink in his armor when he ended up in the ten path.
Leaving aside the fact that coming home in :26.3 while doing that (and showing so much speed and talent he was running over his cover while they're going 1:21.1) is freakish, if he does it next week how does he provide any value?
Last night I bet him and took what I thought was an overlaid price; even being scared James would underdrive him, which I think he did. And this was only his second start of the year so he should peak in the coming weeks. But I'll likely look elsewhere in the final.
Regardless, I am happy for this horse and his connections. I don't know if it's because the horse races in Indiana, he's a gelding, he's not bred like the east coast blue-bloods love, or what. But Dexter Dunn bails on him like he's discarding an old shoe, a bunch of people I see were picking him for third or worse last night. This gritty horse shows up on race day and says "take that!". Way to go.
Beau Jangles is probably the first good horse we have had to judge in the sires stakes age, where they can rhyme off win after win against lesser, and our opinion lacks the proper perspective. We had a couple data points with Beau against open competition, but he did show us his bottom in the Metro, and I don't even think the Metro field was very good.
Last night we would probably learn something for the first time, which to me made the race amazingly compelling.
I'm a little surprised he did not go by Gentleman's Club faster, and I suppose even if he did, he just tows Mamba into a better position and still gets beat. But I am not sold we saw the best of him last evening. It was a sticky track, and sure, I think he was tired and loose-lined at the wire in his 49.3 romp a couple starts ago, (and Doc always has his horses ready) but he still hasn't had to be stretched out like the other two have.
Although today we're back to reality and the superhorse talk has quelled, I think there are some signs he can improve and win this thing next week. I just think it will be tough to get a price.
I'm too hard on Brandon Blvd, and it's probably not fair. But unlike the top two I don't think there's any mystery. He's a fast pacer who has had many races against others pacers who can go around 1:49. He was fine last night and almost won. I think the crowd had the horse pegged right at 6-1 (making Dex's choice look a little more curious), and I don't think he's faster than the top two. He can certainly win next week with a trip, in my view.
The other big contender to me looks to be Sweet Lovin' Lou, and there's a lot of mystery left with this fella. Third off a layoff we figured he'd fire a big one and he did, with most of the crowd joining us at 3-5. I still don't think he's all there - he doesn't look sure on his feet to me yet - but wow, he's fast!
He's one of these horses you expect to be great late in the season or as a four year old. The Swedes wait on these types and they only get better and better. I love this little horse. If the price is right next week I'll bet him, but I'd rather be betting Breeders Crown futures if we had such a market.
We throw around "Superstar" in this sport way too often, in my opinion, but one horse on last night's card who hasn't had it thrown around much but deserves it was Loua Dipa. After coughing up a lung in her debut, she was given time off and she's back to crushing good fillies like they're conditioned claimers.
Last year this filly won in 1:48, which is surely something, but she did it with her ears pricked. That's something I've never seen before, male female, two year old or four year old.
A year ago the locals were talking about Chantilly entering the North America Cup while she is all out in 1:49 and change, but I'd pay admission if this filly was in the Cup box this weekend. There's a strong chance I'd bet her.
She, to me, is as close to a superstar we have in this sport. I don't care if she has off-days and loses a race, because her on-days are something I haven't seen since Rainbow Blue.
On to Belmont!
We can complain - and many of us did - about a racetrack bias, but overall I found Belmont Day really interesting.
A good many sharps I knew were not touting Segesta, and that provided some value in the Just a Game. Finding Classic Q was one of my few successes of the "Stakes Festival", so there's that.
In the True North there was a weird vibe on Book em Danno, where the traditional handicappers wondered if he had tailed off last year, and wasn't the same horse. Offshore completely disagreed - he was about even money most of the week, with Bentornato about 2-1. The odds board reversed these prices and Danno backers were paid. That's such a nice horse.
I think a few of you liked John The Beer Man at a price in the sprint, and I joined you. He seemed to decide he was a steeplechase horse in the middle of the lane and jumped something, but I don't think we were cashing the win end anyway.
What a performance by Englishman. The two horses he left in the dust are no slouches. Speechless.
Golden Tempo winning the Belmont annoyed me for a couple of reasons, i) I make a ton of money if Commandment won and ii) I think trainers not wanting to run horses back reasonably are pox on this sport.
But, taking nothing away from the horse himself - he just shows up and runs when they ask him - wow, really nice job. He closed from last on a speed track and dug in like a good horse should. They could've went around three more times and they weren't going to beat him.
I do wonder if the track changed at all - migosh the kickback looked dreadful - but you can't take anything away from the winner; other than he was probably a Triple Crown winner if the connections wanted it to happen. My rant is now over.
