Skip to main content

Thursday Notes

Jennie Rees makes some great points about the Arlington experiment to tie field size to purse size. It will be interesting to see if AP makes some changes as time goes on with this experiment. h/t to Equidaily.

The dominoes keep falling: Hastings lowers take and now has the best WPS rake on the continent. I am not sure about 2011 in this industry, but I am 100% sure national handle will be up solidly in 2012. Too many tracks are finally coming to realize that customers need to be cultivated, not sucked dry. Bettors bet more when they have more in their pockets.

Try and try again: Western Fair, who lowered their win 4 takeout to 15% has also offered a guarantee. 

No Cam Fella start for the undefeated St. Elmo Hero this weekend as he has spiked a temp.

World Series of Backgammon? Yes, I checked that out over at R2.

Ferguson has a look at Betfair and their bid to buy Monmouth Park, which may or may not be happening. This is probably one of the better developments we have seen in awhile. If they took both Monmouth and the Meadowlands, those two tracks would get a ton of play. Being featured on their channel is a big thing. Perhaps it won't be long before Matt says (like all the telecasts do now in the UK and Australia) "the seven is taking no action and is 9-1 at Betfair, while 4-1 on the board". That's some killer exchange branding.

Dan over at Thorotrends released the results of his first ever survey into thoroughbred racing. There were some neat results and some cool questions. I was struck by the age demo for the survey. Being primarily online, we seem to get a bit of a boost on younger fans/bettor demos. Check it out.

Dan asked a question on the Players Boycott of Cali Racing, which I and many of you share support. That question showed some results which I was a little surprised about. The data pool was extremely broad, yet it seems there was good recognition of it, and some support.

HANA's Harness Survey was chatted about on the HANA blog this week as well. The results are pretty much what we expect, and chat about here on the blog. Rake is too high, too many supertrainers coming out of the woodwork and winning at 30%, pool size is too small.

The funny thing to me is the cause and effect of that, and the spiral. Rake is high, so handle goes down and we have small pools. Supertrainers winning at 2-5 dropping horses and claiming new ones providing zero betting-value makes handle go down and pools be too small. In the past, some tracks (to combat falling revenues) raise takeout to "make up the difference". Then handle goes down again, and we have even smaller pool size. Racing is one of the levels in Inception.

Allan checks out some of the results at VFTRG.

North America Cup eligibles have been released. Last year looked like a solid year for the three year olds, but it ended up being nowhere near expectation. This year looks like a weaker group. Maybe the opposite will happen.

Jessica reports that the fight between the horsemen and Suffolk is close to over.  Who wants to bet that the deal signed protects the status quo? I'll give you 10-1.

CDI does not want to sell their signals easily. Gee, wonder why.

Comments

Pacingguy said…
If the rumors are true, I am more confident of Jeff Gural being able to rescue the Meadowlands as Betfair has deep pockets; so the financing question may be solved.

I have to wonder if TVG does become a part owner of the Meadowlands, it becomes more like TAB with the new Meadowlands outsourcing all wagering functions to TVG for regular and exchange wagering including on track and at the OTWs. Maybe not right away, but shortly down the road.

Also; have to wonder if St Elmo Hero would have spiked a temprature if he didn't draw post ten in an eleven horse race. Maybe he did spike a fever, but from post three or four, a decision to scratch may not have happened that quickly.
Cangamble said…
Jennie assumes that owners will mind blowing a condition in a short field for less money. I don't think that is the case for the overwhelming owners and especially trainers.

Popular posts from this blog

Sword Dancer Shenanigans Proves the Public's Point

Ask any random person who has not watched a horse race, or maybe have seen one or three : "Is horse racing fixed?"

They'll probably say, sure it is; common knowledge.

At that point, racing folks get excited to defend their sport. 99% of the races are clean, there is too much money involved to fix races, etc etc. 

Then we have yesterday's Sword Dancer, where not one of us can blame anyone for thinking like they do about the sport.

It's probably bad enough that a "rabbit" was entered for an old-time form of race fixing, but that the horse was ridden like a quarterhorse made the optics look terrible. That another horse - Roman Approval - had to be physically restrained due to the cowboy style race riding of the horse sent to destroy him, is probably just as bad optically.

But that was just the beginning. The real story had just begun.

At the head of the lane, this rank, spent, heart-ripped out rabbit, needed to do even more work for the 1-9 shot. He had t…

If #harnessracing is Afraid of the Answer......

There's a saying, apparently, from the legal community - never ask a question if you don't know the answer.

Today at the USTA meeting Jason Settlemoir put forth a motion that the USTA ask its membership the feelings on a question regarding slots and marketing. In a nutshell, it asked if a percentage of slot money should go into a slush fund to be spent on marketing and ancillary items to promote and grow the sport.

When the 54 director votes were tallied, the score was 47 to 7..... against.

Yes, the leadership of an organization voted down, in a landslide, asking the grassroots membership a question. 

Sure this seems super-silly, but why they did it, I think, is an easy one. They knew that if they asked the question the answer would be a resounding "yes". Then all hell would break loose. They'd have to try and get that done.

If harness racing is afraid of the answers to questions, they don't ask them. That seems to be the mantra of the sport. And it's p…

PTP's Bathing Index ® Derby Handicapping Angles - This is Much Better than Dosage

Good day racing fans!

It's one week until the Derby, where drunk people, rich people, sororities at almost every University, and others get together to watch, wager, take molly, drink juleps, wear hats, have parking issues, and partake in the annual Kentucky horse racing tradition.

I have scanned the big websites, read almost all social media and was very surprised that there are not a lot of people giving their thoughts on this year's Run for the Roses. It's like no one has an opinion! So in my never ending search for traffic, I decided to pop up a handicapping post. I think this post will help both new fans and old salty handicappers land on a winner.

As most know, physicality is important for handicapping (Leadbetter, et al). A lesser known angle is watching how a horse reacts while getting soapy water thrown on him. As long time handicapper Jessica notes, it can be a key to unlocking Derby betting fortune.


Preach.

Let's begin with our control group, Kentucky Derby …