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Farming, Data, Sharp Bettors & Pace Analysis

Seth Godin asked "what kind of farmer are you?" today. Dan over at Thorotrends is trying his best to make racing the professional farmer, instead of the naive one. His piece on racings segments (different markets/fans) I thought was top-notch and I think should be linked all over the place (and hopefully on some desks Monday, in hard-copy).

I disagree with very little of what he says, and I have been looking at that same question for years. Either we're both nuts, or both on the right track. What do you think?

We've spoken quite a bit here about how sharp the horseplayer is. With vicious takeouts, I believe a successful horseplayer will be very successful in many other pursuits. This comes across virtually everywhere. On Paceadvantage.com someone posted about the new 50/50 bet at Del Mar, and the posters dissected it perfectly. This bet has a 10% takeout, and possesses breakage. In other words, it's an awful prop. Some have said this will appeal to newbies, and others have said it will appeal to sports bettors. I disagree in part with the first assertion and definitely on the second, for many of the reasons mentioned on that thread.

Last up, tomorrow is the Meadowlands Pace, and it is a fantastic betting race. Often times the Breeders Cup Classic, and the Derby has eight, ten or even more possibles, and you can get lost in analysis. However, you will always find something. In harness, with only ten entrants, there is usually one or two big favorites, or big horses who can win the Classic races.

This year there are probably seven that can win this race, and it is a smorgasbord for value players.You truly need to see this odds board to make your decision.

For me, I feel the logicals will be overbet. These include Big Jim and Powerful Mist.

BetterthanCheddar takes money all the time, and he was not overly impressive last time.

Feel Like a Fool, Westwardho Hanover, and Wink n Atcha simply do not look fast enough for me to place on top of any tickets.

I am a Roll With Joe Fan, however, I can't use him either, as he was pretty ordinary in cheap fractions.

That leaves me with the following possible plays:

Custard the Dragon: He was 11-1 last week off the Hoosier win, and everyone and their brother is saying how he stole the elim. That usually means value. Add the fact that he is a nice horse, and he has speed (which wins big races in the sophomore division) and we have a possible bet.

Bestofbest Hanover: He has one wicked brush, he's tiny, and he definitely needs a trip. But he will be huge odds.

Foreclosure: I think this colt is the best colt in North America. With the ten post, and a history of this race, at this speed digging him in a giant hole, it's probably not advisable to bet him. However, he is so very talented. Can he someway, somehow, work a trip from out there? I'll swing at any decent odds.


Most likely: Powerful Mist, Big Jim, Foreclosure, Custard the Dragon

My Plays: Foreclosure onto Custard, Powerful Mist and Best of Best Hanover onto all. 910-236910 ex, plus the reversal.


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