Skip to main content

The Future of Derby Futures

Steve Crist wrote about Derby Futures the other day and a lot of what he offers - deeper fields, lower takeout etc - are worthy. But, what about going outside the parimutuel pools? With Churchill looking at Exchange wagering, this might not be that far off. That's where, in my opinion, Derby Futures can really take off.

Futures wagers, as we all know, are interesting for fans, because they are pre-qualified already to play futures. Your average sports fan makes a trip to Vegas and can bet the winner of the NCAA's, or the Stanley Cup. It is a part of our culture as sports bettors. And it surely ups viewership of these events.

Right now I commend Churchill with their Derby pool. They have promoted it and made it something fun. Technically it should be treated as a loss leader, because it markets your event for you.

Is this good enough? I think in ten years, this wager will be much different than today, and I think it will help racing because big events drive casual fans, and giving casual fans more ways and better ways to participate and share their experiences, is what we're after.

There are a few problems with the Future Pool. All horses are not represented, the odds lack a true real time feel, and you can not change your bets after they are made. This is something that the "World Sports Exchange" tackled as far back as 1997, and it changed the market forever.

What can a "Derby Exchange" for betting do? Quite a bit.

First, it can allow you to trade your position. If you have an eye for horses, or pedigree, and you find a nice horse off of a bad line, the sky is the limit. Let's look at the Grand National at Betfair for an example:



There is about $700k traded already in this market and it is a tight one. Let's look at the trading on the current chalk.



You could have bet this horse at over 45-1 earlier in the season. You could be trading the horse out right now at a profit. This ups volume as a rule. If you could bet a horse like this, knowing you could trade him out later, you might bet $20 instead of $2, or $500 instead of $50. There is less risk when you can trade positions and with less risk, you bet more money. The goal each year for many, would be to have a "green book" where you walk into the Derby card knowing you are a winner before the race starts, and after the race is finished.

The second thing it might do is glue the casual observer to the news. If you owned Uncle Mo a couple of years ago at 10-1 and he was 4-1 a month before the Derby, would you not be paying attention to what the news is? If you heard a good work report on a longshot would you not pay attention? With a huge market and a chance to make some money and have some fun, people will pay attention. There is a 45 year old mom in Ohio who has a real time ticker on her iPhone for $AAPL news, because she is wondering if she should sell her position, or buy another share or two. It is not a stretch to imagine a sports bettor having real-time Derby news on her iPhone.

The third thing it clearly does is attract a new participant in our sport. Peter Webb never played a horse race in his life before wanting to "trade" such positions. There are people writing naked puts, buying corn futures, or using Black-Scholes like we use Formulator who may be interested.

Fourth, forget cannibalization, and think growth. If thousands of people are paying attention and trading positions, think of what Derby Day can do. If you are that in tune with the horses, you better believe you are going to take a poke at an ex, super, or pick three.

Last but not least we have the existing fan base. Twitter and Facebook and Grandstand chatter about "who is going to win" is infectious. If we have more people talking about the Derby betting market, rather than "I put $5 on whomever" it's buzzworthy.

The Grand National will have well over $15 million bet on it via this trading medium. I think in ten years, if legal in the US, run by whomever, $15M can be chump change. The Derby, the social media explosion and the ability to attract tons of new folks to trade this market is a match made perfectly for horse racing.

Comments

Cangamble said…
This is a great idea. Exposure to new customers while testing the exchange market at the same time.

Forget it though, horse racing only kicks the can at great ideas.

Popular posts from this blog

Sword Dancer Shenanigans Proves the Public's Point

Ask any random person who has not watched a horse race, or maybe have seen one or three : "Is horse racing fixed?"

They'll probably say, sure it is; common knowledge.

At that point, racing folks get excited to defend their sport. 99% of the races are clean, there is too much money involved to fix races, etc etc. 

Then we have yesterday's Sword Dancer, where not one of us can blame anyone for thinking like they do about the sport.

It's probably bad enough that a "rabbit" was entered for an old-time form of race fixing, but that the horse was ridden like a quarterhorse made the optics look terrible. That another horse - Roman Approval - had to be physically restrained due to the cowboy style race riding of the horse sent to destroy him, is probably just as bad optically.

But that was just the beginning. The real story had just begun.

At the head of the lane, this rank, spent, heart-ripped out rabbit, needed to do even more work for the 1-9 shot. He had t…

If #harnessracing is Afraid of the Answer......

There's a saying, apparently, from the legal community - never ask a question if you don't know the answer.

Today at the USTA meeting Jason Settlemoir put forth a motion that the USTA ask its membership the feelings on a question regarding slots and marketing. In a nutshell, it asked if a percentage of slot money should go into a slush fund to be spent on marketing and ancillary items to promote and grow the sport.

When the 54 director votes were tallied, the score was 47 to 7..... against.

Yes, the leadership of an organization voted down, in a landslide, asking the grassroots membership a question. 

Sure this seems super-silly, but why they did it, I think, is an easy one. They knew that if they asked the question the answer would be a resounding "yes". Then all hell would break loose. They'd have to try and get that done.

If harness racing is afraid of the answers to questions, they don't ask them. That seems to be the mantra of the sport. And it's p…

PTP's Bathing Index ® Derby Handicapping Angles - This is Much Better than Dosage

Good day racing fans!

It's one week until the Derby, where drunk people, rich people, sororities at almost every University, and others get together to watch, wager, take molly, drink juleps, wear hats, have parking issues, and partake in the annual Kentucky horse racing tradition.

I have scanned the big websites, read almost all social media and was very surprised that there are not a lot of people giving their thoughts on this year's Run for the Roses. It's like no one has an opinion! So in my never ending search for traffic, I decided to pop up a handicapping post. I think this post will help both new fans and old salty handicappers land on a winner.

As most know, physicality is important for handicapping (Leadbetter, et al). A lesser known angle is watching how a horse reacts while getting soapy water thrown on him. As long time handicapper Jessica notes, it can be a key to unlocking Derby betting fortune.


Preach.

Let's begin with our control group, Kentucky Derby …