Runnotsohappy, Final Four, Florida Derby

Good morning racing fans, bettors, and others who if you are not one of those two are here mistakenly.

Open the floodgates! Runhappy has a bruise on his foot and his 4 year old debut will be delayed. There is a chance that comments on Internet stories, like the one above, will be so incendiary, computers everywhere may break into flames. Make sure your McAfee is updated. Stay safe.

The Final Four goes this weekend and most are expecting ratings are going to be down. No, not just on my twitter feed where everyone who lives, lived, or might move sometime to Lexington seems to be #bigbluenation fans. They've rejigged their TV deal, grabbing more hard dollars from TBS and others.

An Op/Ed in the TDN discusses this strategy from a horse racing perspective. As Mike Dorr on the twitter likes to say, gross transactions mean something in commerce. Fewer transactions, less hope to succeed.

The Florida Derby, easily the most looked forward to prep this season, goes Saturday for a million bucks (free PP's here). Although most have this as a coin flip with two stout foes - Mohaymen and Nyquist meeting for the first time - I don't think it's close to that. With a speed horse, with an inside post at 9f, on a track that supplies a massive historical edge to both those characteristics, I think Nyquist is a very strong favorite. If we had an exchange for the Derby, I expect Nyquist at 8-1 or so today would provide great value, because there's a good chance he'll be much lower than that come Saturday evening.

Frankly, I don't think KM and crew would mind Mohaymen making one run at the end as a prep. I thought the horse looked tired and not quite as sporty after his last tilt and I can't see them punishing him in a head to head match up. It's strange to say, but I think they might use this million dollar race as a true prep from that post.

We'll see come Saturday.

Notes:

Handle for March, despite continued good weather and a strong Gulfstream pick 6 mandatory payout bet, looks to be flat or down slightly. 

Calvin Borel retired, and before the Derby no less. Calvin's career has been highlighted by two Derby wins where he skimmed the rail to win. I wonder, if he was shut off in those races (watch them, it was close at times), he would be more Corey Lanerie than Bo Rail. With jockeys, this business is results based, and at times very ruthless. Calvin is a good rider and deserves a good send off either way.

WiggleitJiggle It is back in fine form, destroying a solid field of older at Dover Downs. The four year old can't beat older narrative is slowly losing its way in harness racing. He goes Saturday in the Levy and should be tough in there against some salty foes.

Enjoy your Thursday everyone.