Restoring Hope & Discounting

The controversy (if you want to call it that) about the race riding in the Belmont has entered the mainstream press. This, unlike the 2016 Sword Dancer, happened with more mainstream coverage, so the industry finds itself having to talk about it. But make no mistake, they don't want to talk about it.

I have no strong opinion on the Belmont. Sure, maybe the horse was a blocker, but maybe he wasn't. It's not something we have not seen 1,000 times before, if he was. And the public knows that, because they believe - and its been ingrained to them in popular culture since forever - that in horse racing, funny stuff happens.

Although our left brain suggests to us that this presents a barrier to growth  - and it likely does - it's just the way it is. The public discounts this stuff for the most part. 

Flipping over to another situation:

I was just realizing what kind of repercussions this could have in a world in which the NBA is directly involved in sports betting in the US. Clearly some amount of people knew this. Are there going to be penalties for not reporting it? You can go way down the rabbit hole here. https://t.co/5dMtWuezac

— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) June 11, 2018

This - the state of Lebron James' hand - presents a problem as well. But will the new sports betting mainstream press and public take it sitting down like they do with horse racing?

They have thus far - the shadow markets are driving dollars - but who knows what the future holds.

Both horse racing and sports betting drive handle in the many billions, and with the spotlight on them there's a chance they can drive more. Will either sport address these issues for the modern betting public? Or will they just conclude that discounting happens and it is what it is. In the short term I think it'll be the latter.