Good Day everyone.
It was announced yesterday that racing at most of Ontario racetracks will resume beginning this week. The conditioned sheets will be posted, and once again, just like the last time they did this, there won't be any qualifiers needed to race.
So, good news and much needed purse money for participants, not so good for us as bettors. But it is what it is.
This time, to me, it does feel different; mainly it seems like the last time we'll see such shut downs. I suspect racing will be back on a normal calendar, and stakes season *should* go off without a hitch in the tundra. Down south, vaccinations are moving forward at a high speed, so stakes payments made by U.S. trainers should be realized in a start, and unlike last year, U.S. drivers and trainers and jockeys should be good to go. For those of you lamenting local drivers driving in all the stakes races, you'll have a reprieve.
For us, say you and me in the tundra, perhaps we won't be visiting a U.S. racetrack quite so easily. The vaccination roll-out plan is really quite the clown show, even embarrassingly raiding a vaccine set-aside for poor countries. There's no timeline on when we'll be able to drive down for a race or visit (assuming a vaccination is the litmus test). But, at least some normalcy seems to be in the cards.
For next week however, bettor beware. Watch your wallets!
Betdowns, ROI Positive?
With lack of form racing soon upon us once again, revisiting a gambling topic seems appropriate - bet downs. There are generally two truisms if you go through betting data. i) the chalk end of the spectrum has more ROI than the other end and ii) Bet downs (horses hammered below the morning line, for one definition) are not very good for the bankroll. #theydontknow
I wonder, however, if that's as true today in harness racing with its small pools and inside money. The fact, is, bet downs are seen with more regularity in this sport, primarily at the Meadowlands, and they aren't pitches.
You'll have a horse like Tellitsassymae at the Big M last evening, with a 6th by 8 last race 6 weeks ago in a nw5750 in a nw4500 off a qualifier of 6th by 11 the charter labelled as a "dull effort". That horse, bet down to 3-5 off a 7-2ML, was a horse we may think about pitching. She of course won easily.
You'll see a Whittiker in tonight, which me and Chip were on last time in a nw2500, get second over, hang a bit in the wind and come 5th at a juicy 6-1. He was a betback for me and I was a little excited to use as a pick 6 or pick 4 key. He was moving up in class to a nw4500, was 9-2 morning line, and right in the wheelhouse. He was bet down to even money, took all the money in the sweeps, and he won by 6 under a hammerlock.
We, as bettors, are conditioned to avoid these low prices, unless the horse has no holes. What we see at the M and elsewhere are tons of holes, but if they're bet down (sometimes to bizarrely low prices), the holes we think we see aren't holes at all.
The question is: should we keep avoiding these horses as they cross the wire winning not like a 4-5 shot, or an even money shot, but like a 1-5 or 1-9 shot? I honestly don't know. This is one tough game.
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
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