Poll - Can You Be a Winning Player With a 5% Loss?

I noticed an interesting tweet on Monday from @derby1592 - 

I think it's sound advice; advice we've heard from people like Mike Maloney. Note that beating the take is not winning, but showing you have some sort of edge in the win pools. 

Not long after, I wondered what people thought about this question - 

I chose 0.95 (out of $1) because a 5% loss is really hard to achieve, and if you're doing that (especially without subsetting giant chalk, or otherwise), you are a very, very good player. Can a very, very good player make tickets properly to overcome a 5% loss?

You're pretty split on this and I did read some good comments saying "no" but I do disagree. 

If you're only losing 5%, you are clearly doing the right things - you recognize good chalk and bad, recognize contenders versus the ones to throw out. You have a really good feel for a race. 

If you have a really good feel for a set of races, I think you might be selling yourself short. 

By recognizing contenders, you are able to play better pick 4 or 5 tickets, because your cost per ticket is much lower than average. This matters. 

If you are able to scope out a race, a few tips and tricks can lead you to some vertical success, too. For example, if you are near profitable in the win pool, you are likely finding 4-1 to 10-1 shots who are ROI positive. Playing these horses, say 1 or 2 in supers, and using your skill to not use obvious horses underneath (because you recognize good and bad chalk), can yield superior payoffs. 

There's no bigger drain on a bankroll than liking a 10-1 shot, betting $20 to win, then spending a pile of supers and tris with all chalk underneath. Using a price swing horse you may like (and if you like a 10-1 shot you probably don't like the obvious horses) in exotics can turn a super that pays $800 with chalk, to one that pays $4,000 or more. Hit several of those a year and you're certainly doing good things. 

Knowing when to push this or not, i.e. not taking exotic tickets when you don't see an edge underneath your play, means something too. 

In the end I go on the premise that because a 5% win pool loss is so hard to achieve for the pen and paper capper, using that skill to construct mathematically and logically sound tickets by eliminating wastage can vault a player over the top. 

Have a nice day everyone.