Monday, June 12, 2023

World Famous Super Spectacular Blog - Belmont Week Thoughts, NYRA's Airplane Mode, Track Execs Need to Listen to this Pod, Repole's Rules, Half-Assing Price Reductions, NA Cup Elims & Two of Racing's Good New Broadcasters

Welcome to the newest Monday edition of the World Famous Super Spectacular Blog! 

This blog almost didn't get written as my overseas bots readers informed me you could see the fire smoke in Moscow, but we got it done. Seriously, I'm happy the weekend went off without a hitch, because it didn't look that way earlier in the week. 

Belmont thoughts.... 

In the New York Stakes on Friday we saw a .... harness race we get so mad at so often. 

The leader got down to the 3/4's in 115 and change, then set down 23.3 and 23 flat panels, meaning Secretariat himself probably would've struggled to make a dent on the leaders. Of course, the 3-5 chalk was toiling back in last. 

This is a speed game, and we all get that some turf horses have styles that have to be used. But for the others who are versatile, why don't more jocks use speed in paceless races and take a shot? Like coaches not going for it on 4th and 3, maybe because the downside risk hurts more than trying something aggressive to win. I really don't know, but most of those riders put the cue in the rack in the warm up.  

As an aside, this phenomenon reminds me of several Zenyatta races as she was often at the mercy of pace. Remember her Clement Hersch? 115 and change for an 8.5 furlong race where they ganged up to beat her, coming the last half furlong in 5 and 4. You didn't need to wait for what the Beyer came back because it didn't matter. 

Arabian Lion was not a big feel good win on the Twitter, but it was a nice outing and proved Baffert can still win in New York. It was a bit weird because offshore the horse was hammered, but I don't know too many who leaned that way, other than maybe Chris Larmey. After the steamiest of steam on Derby Day, General Jim's wagering pattern felt flat to me, didn't get a ton of pace to run down, and wasn't a factor. 

Cody's Wish. I have nothing else to say. 

I didn't watch the Fox Sports feed, but the natives were restless. 

The big one was quite an event, with honest fractions, and the horse who saved the most ground won in a very good effort. 

There's an old handicapping angle - when there's some unknowns, bet talent - and if you did that I am sure you bet Arcangelo. This horse was massively faded offshore, and I could not quite understand it. If you played there, you got 20-1, so a hearty well done. 

Forte ran fine, and I guess if you add the layoff and the fact he looked a little fractious beforehand, maybe he ran great. But he does seem to have a tough time quickening, and I am still not a fan. Maybe he needs blinkers; maybe he'll crush this summer and make me look dumb. I don't really know what to make of him.  

Tapit Trice was my wager because of a price I didn't expect, and I thought he was a winner on the far turn with the very aggressive move (because as his Blue Grass proved, he can sustain a move), but Louis' eyes might've been bigger than his stomach. 

John summed up the Belmont nicely. Yes, Big Red was a machine and we seem to get reminded of it year after year. 

Here's your day's Beyers. And here's your CJ Figures.  Figure making in today's game is pretty hard. 

Here's the Belmont handle numbers and assorted metrics over the years from Crunk. 

I remember people talking about this a decade or more ago ("Umm, you don't want me to use my handicapping materials and tools to give you money here?"), and I can't believe it's still a thing. It's treated like bringing outside food into a game (and a pro-tip, mobile phones are powerful in 2023 and you can bet on them). 

Mike Repole shared a story in the Bloodhorse about having a national body cure the bog of racing rules and regulations and followed it up with a tweet. I don't think anyone of us disagrees it's all a big mess. 

However, I think this task is like hitting a pick 38 with a $5 minimum. 

States control purse money in many juridictions, and they want to keep that control; and in case we're new here, like a brand new baby, we know governments don't work very efficiently when it comes to things like this in the first place. We have not even touched on the fact that all the alphabets want a say, as well. 

I speak from a tiny bit of experience. I sat on the rules committee for harness racing a couple of years ago that took up the task of writing a universal rule book. The project was chaired by one of the most respected people in the sport in John Campbell, where it hit the ground running with massive respect attached. Despite participants from all areas of the sport agreeing about virtually everything (including me representing the customer), a lot of it just went to die. 

I suppose this is why I have a soft spot for HISA, regardless of any issues I may disagree with. They're wading into a place that could be a framework for what Repole wants. And I think this sport desperately needs it. 

I thought this week's Bet with the Best pod with Denny was a humdinger. Denny is a database player, and since a lot of players don't wager this way, it will probably be a nice listen for just about anyone. There were a lot of gems. 

I've said this before, and maybe I'm talking out of my hat, but yes, Chris's pods are great for us players, but I believe they are absolute must listens for track executives. And this one was another example. 

There's even a template!
Denny talked about race selection driving his plays, and this is very common with anyone who wants to play volume. 

For example, the database program I use will filter out races with fewer than eight horses, and lower than a (proprietary) race volatility (RV) number with one button because it's so important. As an illustration, 'over' these numbers yields a win price of $13, and under around $8.  Players can find value in the former, less in the latter. 

On this blog, and from players everywhere who want to grow the game, we've asked for larger fields, better, more contentious races, and lower takeout (another item he touched on) simply because we'll bet more. And with that, the sport has a better chance to attract more people to try it like Denny has. 

Anyhow, another great pod Chris. I hope the big guys and gals who run the sport dial it up each and every week. 

A major ADW had a promotion up in Canuckland. If you bet more than X (depending on your history) you got 5% cash back. It was for a limited time. Great right?

But the kicker - the max you could earn in a takeout reduction was $1,000. 

So, player A says, great, I am gonna bet to get this rebate. They go on a run the first week and hammer through $20,000. They earn their $1,000.

"I see there's a limit of $1,000. I have $12,000 in my account and I'm ready to fire more, what can you do?"

"The limit is $1,000, so nothing."

"Then you want me to just stop betting?"

"We'd like you to keep betting, but you won't get any more rebates."

This, in my view, is the half-assing we see regarding price reductions in horse racing. You have dabbling into lower takeout pools, mostly with hard to hit bets; the odd carryover which brings in huge money. But it's always toe dipping. 

In this case, you have someone that might bet millions in a year and you tell them they can't. That you don't want more handle. 

I'll honestly never ever understand this. 

Weird is one word for it!

The North America Cup eliminations took place on Saturday and there were several standouts. What's the price on Voukafales in the final? That's the magic question for me. In my view, that horse was tremendous off the break. 

It's no secret Mohawk has been pretty sleepy the last several years with less competitive racing and drivers who seem to fall in love with the three hole. Like, it sure ain't Northfield. So, when better horses and the top drivers come up on days like this it shakes things up, and reminds a lot of us what the sport can be. I thought the racing was very good on Saturday. 

As for a common theme in the sport, it seems on a daily basis we see how in the dark the public is, and how little public money is in the pools despite high handles. In the 5th race, the second Cup elimination, Fulton was coming off a loss to Redwood Hanover last time (who was in the race) after getting everything his own way. This week the field was much deeper with likely favorite Combustion and Ammo added. It's one reason Fulton was down the list in picks, including not even in the top four for sharps like Pribozie. 

Fulton won easily and was chalk in every single multi-leg pool. Other than a bridle change (which over large samples is ROI negative and doesn't move this kind of money anyway), maybe people knew Combustion was going to be no good? Maybe they knew Fulton wasn't trained hard for last week's effort and would be that much better? I have no idea, but it's a tough game. 

Marcus the Greek was on fire with the professional wordsmithing stuff. I probably do this a lot on this blog, but I don't understand what mixed metaphors are in the first place so I'm not really sure. 

Future President of HISA campaigning.
Rallis is the new WEG broadcasting hire, and he's been making some waves, even catching the eye of sharps like Thomas. 

For people getting into broadcasting the sport, I'd respectfully suggest taking a look at how John talks about his tickets; it's different, dare I say almost ITP approved. And I can surely echo Thomas's point of view regarding his questions, as well as Ken's regarding his work ethic. 
 
John's never done TV before, and he's been working on that too, appearing to get more comfortable each day. Way to go and keep plugging John.
Another young broadcaster and capper I am really impressed with is NYRA's Sara Eldwabi. I got to listen to her on Chris and Scott's Sport of Kings pod last week, and her passion for the game and knowledge is apparent to anyone with ears. Good call keying Up to the Mark. The Euros were used on a lot of tickets tripling the cost and you were bang-on with that smart single. Keep on firing. 

Beem doesn't get his back up much, but he's a good dude. 

Interesting tweet by Tinkster that generated some cool discussion (those can still happen on twitter!).
The marketer in me wonders how many people showed up for the Satanic exorcism and how many for the fifty cent fried chicken (h/t to Andymays), but while I ponder this, thanks for reading this week's Super Spectacular Blog.  And like each and every week - good luck at the windows and please be nice on the social medias.
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