Is Morning Line Making the Toughest Job in Racing?

 I saw this tweet by Nick yesterday. Nick is the morning line maker at Keeneland.

I promise I’m not being a smart ass. I clearly made a horrendous line there on Toupie. It’s embarrassing and I hate it. But what did those of you who bet her like? I use every fig available in making lines and watch replays. She was too high at 20, but how could she be <10-1?

— Nick Tammaro (@NTamm1215) October 6, 2023

"How could she be less than 10-1?"

She was, because despite Nick's due diligence, some are playing a different game when it comes to handicapping, and assigning probabilities. 

Pick virtually any random race in this day and age, and we'll see two horses that meet the co 7-5 shot eye test  - and sharp players like Nick will have them 9-5 and 8-5 in the morning line - but one will be 4-5 and the other will be 5-2. 

Rewind the clock 20 years, and we could predict this hot trainer, with a hot jock, with a horse who has won three in a row will be 4-5. "The public is gonna be all over this horse" and that was more often than not an accurate prediction. Now it's supremely difficult because oftentimes this is not the case. 

Just last night at Mohawk in race five there was what looked to be a two horse race. One of the horses was a likely 3-5 shot. He had won in 1:54 in nw2 already and was eligible in the same class. The other was beaten in his first try in nw2, and had never gone speed the chalk has already been in. 5 of 6 track handicappers picked the obvious chalk on top.

He lost, which happens. But he wasn't even the favorite. The other one was, at even money. 

How can one predict this? We can't. 

Now, put that into the context of a morning line maker - they're up against things like this each and every race. 

Most professionals in the game will tell you that the odds board does the handicapping for you, and they're not far off, either logically or in reality. It's all the sharp money from a lot of you, inside money, or outside money from people who have an expensive algo that's gone through billions of simulations that produces profit. Every single eyeball, every single dollar is represented, and the money is sharper than it ever has been. 

Morning line makers (no matter how skilled) are having to make these lines themselves, days before race time. It's an almost impossible job, and those skilled enough like Nick and David at NYRA for example, are bringing a pea shooter to a gun fight. Frankly, they even being as close as they are, is something I marvel at. 

Have a great weekend everyone.