The State of the Harness Betting Game

We've all seen public money dry up over the years in all of racing, where the sharp money seems to know. We've also seen (for not only this, but for many things in the sport) harness be a leading indicator of this. 

If what we're currently seeing in the harness game is a true leading indicator, the next couple of years in thoroughbred racing might be tough to handle. 

Case in point, the Open last night at Mohawk. 

This was a battle between Amigo Volo, who was 6-5 last time in this exact same class, and Safe Conduct, who was 5-2 last week in this same class. Safe Conduct, who opened at 3-5 last week, soundly defeated Amigo Volo with ease; frankly, looking like they didn't breathe the same air. 

Last night they met again, and Rob Reid, who knows what he's talking about and has bet for a hundred years, scoped the race out in the program: 

• #1 SAFE CONDUCT was a much the best winner on December 2nd when he stepped away from his foes in deep stretch and scored by more than two lengths after sitting a pocket trip behind Fashion Frenzie. This son of Archangel will likely push out for early position with rail control and is just under $1,000 away from $100,000 in earnings this season. He has raised his game at the age of five and looks like a prime candidate to double-up.

He called it perfectly, and it was an obvious choice. There were no missed weeks, driver changes, trainer changes; nothing. It was the exact same match up. 

But, when the doubles opened up showing what the board might look like in the Open, it was curious. Amigo Volo - the horse Safe Conduct made look like a 12 claimer last time - was the big chalk. 

When the board opened, Safe Conduct was not 3-5 like he was last week, but 5-2. Amigo Volo took all the cash. 

As post time approached, those not in the know - i.e. the betting "public" - were betting Safe Conduct (as they should, because again, Rob's analysis was spot on by the program lines).  He dove down to 3-2 with one minute to post, while Amigo Volo was hovering at 4-5. The handicapping line bettors were seeing this as strong value, and how could they not?

At the quarter, after all the money came in, Amigo Volo went down to 1-5, Safe Conduct went up to 5-2. 

As Robert Reid correctly predicted, Safe Conduct pushed from the wood and got a perfect two hole trip. In the middle of the lane, Amigo Volo was asked and sprinted away from Safe Conduct - the exact opposite of last time they met. Seven days later, Amigo made Safe Conduct look like the 12 claimer. 

I use the above as an example, but I could've picked hundreds of others. That's not even an exaggeration as I watch thousands of races a year. This is the state of the sport. 

Andrew Demitrious, a professional bettor I remember as far back as the late 1980's when I was a regular, opined in Trot Magazine recently (I suspect it was him, coulda been someone else) that they "better get the cell phones out of the paddock", and he was probably onto something. 

Why? Because with so little public money in the harness pools, one phone call, one text, can set off a chain reaction. Whether that's what happened last night or not is irrelevant to me. We get a hybrid of the above, race after race, night after night in this game. 

In my view, the harness betting pools are horribly broken. They feel so broken that I don't even know what I could suggest to fix them. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.