Derby Day, Positives & Bans

Derby Day is here. Who is the winner? I wish I knew.

There is virtually no chance that the three chalk will not be Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro. They are 7-2, 5-1 and 6-1 at betfair right now with no one close. There is a 6.4% rake right now in the book, so that should broaden a bit. Colonel John is longer at Ehorse X, and there is a bit of an arb opportunity on him for those who play the exchanges and try to lock in profit.

If all of those three are off the ticket? Wowsa, we are in for some solid exotics.

I have not made a bet yet. Usually I get something down in the future book, but did not this year.

My most likely winner is Big Brown, 20 post and all. He is a talented horse and Dutrow has always had his horses ready for big races. He will be super tomorrow I think.

Ian Meyers of Premier Turf Club has a Private Clocker's Report for the race. Amazingly he does this despite Churchill being offered at his own ADW. The guys that run that joint are fans, plain and simple. Who in the heck else would offer a clocker report for a track they don't even carry?

Big Brown: First the positives. We think the horse is a freak and have for a while (a number of PTC clients got down big on him in the future book before the Florida Derby). He appears fit and full of energy and worked strongly this morning, and Dutrow is even more bullish on him privately than he is publicly if that’s possible. OK, now the negatives. He’s still got quarter cracks on both front hooves that have been patched with acrylic. He appeared to Joe, (not to all in attendance, but at least to Joe) that the track was stinging him a little when he worked. Despite the quarter crack he didn’t work in any special shoes (bars, ¾’s etc) and never showed any unsoundness.

Longshot? How about Z Fortune, Cowboy Cal and the filly.

To be honest it has been a busy week and I have not followed the news, other than listening to Steve Byk's radio show on Sirius. I will probably play an exotic or two. Tis all.

This week the ORC nabbed two trainers for EPO. Evzen Pindur and William Elliott. Woodbine Entertainment then came out and said they will not accept horses that were trained by either trainer. This is nothing new, but is interesting. I have some thoughts on both events. I will get to it this weekend I hope. I wonder what everyone thinks of this news.

Cangamble has some good posts up this week. His Derby thoughts are up and his link to the Bob Evans piece is good.

Enjoy the racing this weekend everyone. I am spending a few days out East. I should be back in the fold Monday or Tuesday.

Conference Results

I notice that SC has the results of the conference and what it plans to do over the next several months:

Under the umbrella of the Standardbred Wagering Action Plan, five committees have been isolated as immediate priorities. Over the next three weeks, Standardbred Canada will utilize information received from this week's Conference to develop the committees and begin to set timelines and priorities going forward.

The committees are as follows:

1) Research – To initiate a national and international fact finding mission of studies already undertaken to isolate who the customer and potential customer is, and establish what he/she requires from the racing industry.

2) Distribution – To look at new models for the exponential growth of distribution channels that could potentially offer Canadian harness racing betting products to the public.

3) National Pools and Product Development ––
To look at a comprehensive model aimed at creating wagering opportunities that utilize multiple Canadian racetracks.

4) Canadian Betting Exchange – To explore potentially offering Canadian standardbred horse wagering through a betting exchange platform.

5) Racing Product Development –– To look at the on-track product and explore areas of potential development on a national scale.

The Standardbred Wagering Action Plan requires active participation from all segments of the industry, and this week's conference offers great encouragement that real change can occur for the future of racing in this country.

I did not hear much about the first part labelled "1)", in fact heaven help us if we do not know who are customers are at this stage. But the rest were all spoken about. 2,3, and 4 were all hot topics and are hot topics in the 21st century. It is nice, if even in a small way they are addressed. Getting racing to work as a solid team to lobby and change laws regarding betting exchanges is a fantastic first step. I do not know if people realize that getting some sort of toehold and working this concept on the shores of North America can completely put Canada, and Canadian racing on the global map as an innovator and leader.

Wagering Conference - Ideas & Thoughts

Well, the conference has come and gone. Tonight there is a dinner and night of racing at Montreal (which I still call Blue Bonnets); and that is all for the two and a half day event.

I learned a great deal, and came away with more knowledge. The big bettors on the panel spoke about knowledge to bettors being power. Knowledge to customers about the business is also a good thing, on the flip side.

A few things I took away from the experience:

Bettors are certainly not the enemy if they play other games; or if they have switched betting to other lower cost avenues. Their behaviour and candor were welcomed as far as I saw. Most what stood out to me: every bettor that spoke wants to play the game. They want to play right into a Grand River pool on a Tuesday. They want the game to grow. They want it to succeed. They want to own more race horses. If the audience expected bitterness, or yelling, or name-calling from customers, they came to the wrong place. I think for the first time racing saw first hand that bettors want the same thing the tracks want - a growing game.

Ideas were plentiful. Roy Sproxton, gambler, racing fan and horse owner, expressed something interesting to the crowd, related to pool size. He said "I market make on a betting exchange for sports betting. I provide liquidity in the market. I get a nice price break to do that. Why can't I call Georgian, or Grand River and bet right into their pools, and get a decent price break. What if I guaranteed I bet $500 a race? That would encourage more people to bet into the pools and pool size could mushroom. Maybe with some work we could four or five guys doing that, who professionally play and provide incentive for others to join us and raise handles."

That's interesting. That's outside the box.

I have always had a soft spot for harness racing in PEI, NS and NB - the have not harness racing world, where people truck 200 miles to race for $500 purses. They have $20 win pools there. Why can't we get outside the box and have each horse owner, or a central organization charge, or contribute $15 on each entry, paid at the stable gate, or through a license fee or whatever. This $15 is a $5 wps bet on their horse. The pool size would be immediately $90 and each horse would be 6-1 (with rakes). Well each horse clearly does not have a 6-1 chance. The rail horse might be even money fair odds, so that encourages betting. People will keep adding money to the pools until fair odds are reached - that is a mathematical certainty. It guarantees churn. It attracts people looking for a value bet.

It's this type of change that might help our business grow.

Kaplan from Standardbred Canada had a good idea relating to scheduling races to get pool size up. Why not have one track each night of the week featured by all of harness racing across the country. A pick 6 could be that night for each track; some buzz might be created. The more we see a product and know people are betting it, the more we will play. One track featured is a good thing.

Takeout was on the burner, and I was surprised we did not hear more of "they are greedy for bringing that up" or "horse racing is too expensive" from the crowd. It was a testament to the people in this business - down to earth and respectful, even if they might not have agreed. I think perhaps it was because every bettor stressed, fairly eloquently most times, with a real-world underlying theme: "Look, I want to bet more. I can not bet more as the environment and pricing is too punitive. You have to make this game winnable. You have to attack the mindset that harness racing betting is for suckers. We have to let people win and lowering prices is a big way to do that."

We clearly all know that lowering prices will not alone cure the game. Any lowering prices has to be done via rebates and ADW, in a tight churnable betting account, to see the benefits of churn. Also, it will not happen overnight. Pinnacle sports did not grow overnight; they grew by churn. If we give people $4 extra back on a $30 score, they will just rebet it once, maybe twice at live racing. If they still have money left at the end of the night they will sink it in a slot machine on the way out. The live racing experience with slots unfortunately will break peoples bankrolls. Racing hopefully takes the same mindset that places like betfair and Pinnacle have/had - help people win, but do it via a betting account. Professional bettor James Erickson was asked "what can we do to up your bet size?" He replied, nothing. That is up to me, when my bankroll goes up I bet more, when it goes down I bet less. Help people win, they will bet more. It is simple, really."

I hope those points get across.

Lastly, I want to thank everyone for contributing to the 7% tax back thread. I relayed several of the posts. Your voices are heard.

The bottom line for me is that this will take strong leadership and much work. I mentioned to a few people from Standardbred Canada at the end something sometimes we forget: To implement change it costs money. I as a SC member am willing to contribute with an increased fee. If they bring a workable plan that needs to be funded to horsepeople and others with an increased fee, I hope they have the same reaction. We have to pay for this, we can not just wave a wand and fix things. it takes work and sacrifice.

With wagering down 40%, the question is not can I afford to contribute something to the plan through an increased fee, the question is how can I afford not to.

Thanks for everyone's participation. Thanks to Standardbred Canada for inviting me. It was a privilege.