Friday, May 30, 2008

Handicapping the Burlington; and some notes

Well I might as well kill some time. Been busy today, and not much up for posting, but in reading a couple things tonight got me thinking of the Burlington.

First some notes:

The Molson Pace was contested tonight and was won in stunning fashion by longshot Eagle Luck. Gotta love the way they do it up at Western Fair. Frank really gets up for the event, they had a huge crowd and all looked well. I checked to see if it was on HPITv tonight, but HPIWest did not have the card. What a shame, they all work hard there, so the TV coverage would have been good for handles. Regardless, great race. You can watch it here. It is worth it. Old time harness racing.

On Equidaily.com, which I read daily, he rarely has a link on a standardbred story. But today he links the Toronto Star piece on Somebeach and calls it "Debut of Somebeachsomewhere is highly anticipated". How true that is. This is one of those horses who may be able to transcend breeds.

Below when I mentioned that Woodbine does many good things for the player, I got reminded of that this evening. I went to the mail and got my invitation to the North America Cup or Queen's Plate, with a meal and drink included. This is a nice thing to give to players. I enjoyed my time last year. I think I did not cash a ticket, but might have been the best time I had doing that at the track. I don't think too many players showed up, but I did.

Kevin from The Aspiring Horseplayer posted a nice comment below about the blog. That was nice. I thought of replying in private to it, but I posted it. Not everyone thinks I am a goofball, so I just want y'all to know that :) Kevin's blog is very well read and very well done. It is on thoroughbreds, and it is worth bookmarking. On Wednesday he posted a very good opinion piece on Rick Dutrow and some of his comments about Big Brown versus Curlin. That post had some awesome horseplayer passion. You can access that here.

Now, first up thank Greg R of the Edge who posts the updates on the Cup for us. He did that below, touching most of the bases as usual.

Second, time for me to dust off my handicapping pen (oh lord!) and take a look at the Burlington divisions tomorrow.

The Burlington Stakes are generally a little bit hard to handicap. For $100,000 the purse is not small, but with bigger fish to fry later in the Cup we have to handicap intent. It is also the first week of a three race stretch where your horse will be pushed. Not ideal for trainers and drivers in cooking a horse, so watch for that. Last year, for example, Cup Champion Tell All was 9th by 16 at the quarter in his Burlington divison.

The first division should probably be a cake walk for Dali. There are clearly some good horses in this race, like Art Official and especially Sand Shooter. But with those two having the outside posts, I do not expect much. I would need very fair odds to play either of them from there. I see Luc quarter poling Dali around possibly Tetrick with It's That Time. If they go slow this might be the exactor.

The second division has the superhorse. It is interesting to me. In the program, Ken Sr. goes against Beach. And with his injury it seems people somewhat see him as vulnerable. Good luck. If this horse loses, or even looks threatened I would be shocked. I believe by Sunday morning he is back being everyone's huge favourite for the Cup. Santanna will not be torched from the outside - no way Jody goes crazy I think. But perhaps they might leave and tuck. If so, that would be enough to fill out the exactor (imo).

The third division is very interesting. The three hyped-contenders drew the outside. Legacy and Diamonds might just give this a shot from out there to see how he stacks up (the Cup starting fee is $8000); Luc's horse has speed. Hmmm. Tough, interesting race. I am going to say Luc gets a great up close trip here with Four Starz Moxie, and gets the job done. I might try Lonestar Legend for second, as I think Swick will not instruct Tetrick to go back to last. He was 10th by 20 last time in Canada at the first call, and that did not work out too well. He might try from out there. If he does and works out a trip I will probably be not cashing on Luc as this horse is some serious stock. I'll throw Condren with Legacy in that mix as well. If that came in it would be a fairly good tri.

Remember, these picks are for fun only: I don't think I have cashed a ticket since last week. Or maybe last month. One of the two.

Who do you guys like in the divisions? Any words of wisdom?

Enjoy the Saturday, enjoy the stakes and go make some cash everyone. Let's hope the rain holds off and we see some great racing.

6 comments:

Phil J. said...

Did you happen to catch Final Curtain last night at M1?

3 year old pacer went 148.2 and was under Sears' death grips.

Pull the Pocket said...

What a jogfest! I have heard a few grumbles about the mile, seeing that last week the colt got a perfect covered trip and had nothing in 52, but this week it was a jogburger.

What did you think? I could not have bet him at 6-5 off last weeks effort. You?

Phil J. said...

No I left him out. The only way to bet that horse was to look at the odds and say that he's live. He had no excuses last week and yet this week he turns in that effort?

Almost a crime lol

Phil J. said...

And how about Soul Chaser? Has risen from the Northfield condition races to the 50k claimers up north to winning the Winners Over at M1 in 147.3, defeating Mister Big.

Cangamble said...

FYI, there is someone downloading Mohawk races on Youtube.

Pull the Pocket said...

The speed they are going is amazing at the M Phil. The track must be rock hard there.

I kinda liked Mr Big there, since he closed into that weird pace. Soul Chaser? Gosh, who knows what to think.