Tuesday, June 10, 2008

North America Cup XXV Final Drawn

Here is the field for the Cup Final (courtesy Standardbredcanada.):

$1.5 million Pepsi North America Cup

PP - Horse - Listed Driver - Trainer - Line

1 - Santanna Blue Chip - J. Jamieson - C. Jamieson - 10-1
2 - Somebeachsomewhere - P. MacDonell - B. MacGrath - 8-5
3 - Deuce Seelster - J. Campbell - D. McCall - 8-1
4 - Badlands Nitro - B. Sears - B. Teague - 4-1
5 - Sand Shooter - D. Miller - J. Arledge - 8-1
6 - Mucho Sleazy - M. MacDoanld - C. Coleman - 15-1
7 - Art Official - T. Buter - J. Seekman - 5-1
8 - Dali - L. Ouellette - D. Marfisi - 8-1
9 - Lennon Blue Chip - T. Tetrick - C. Coleman - 30-1
10 - Keystone Horatio - Ra. Waples - J. Kopas - 15-1

I am having some serious trouble with the odds line. 6 out of the 10 horses are under 10-1? SBSW at 8-5? He has never had a horse on his saddle pad in his career, let alone been headed. He should have been 4-5 or lower, in my opinion. And only two horses (Badlands and Art Official) should be below 10-1.

If there was a head to head match up odds line, those five horses all under 10-1 would be around -200 to beat SBSW. I would lay that huge.

We'll come back with a fair odds line later.

As a reflection of what the public thinks, SC has run a poll on who people think will win Cup XXV. This is a fair odds line based on those 1700 votes. Since it is a Canadian website ad SBSW is such a fan fave, this line would be off as well, imo, but in any event I think SB is closer to 3-10 than 8-5. If I could be assured he would be 8-5 I think I would mortgage my house this week.

Art Official 45-1
Badlands Nitro 21-1
Dali 30-1
Deuce Seelster 31-1
Horatio 65-1
Lennon 90-1
Mucho S 80-1
Sand Shooter 95-1
Santanna Blue C 45-1
SBSW 3-10



Anyone want to make an odds line? I will post them up. I have a spreadsheet that does it for you if anyone is interested. I can email it to you for you to have.

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