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Cup XXV Analysis & Full Card Speed Figures

Well today is the day - Cup XXV.

#1 Santanna Blue Chip - Should be trying to scoot out of there to get a nice spot, and probably will do so. Likely to hit the superfecta ticket if things go his way.

#2 Somebeachsomewhere - There is not much left to say. It seems like the only way this horse can lose is if he beats himself. Big Brown beat himself last week by most accounts. I am interested in the driver strategy. If Paul blasts I can see a whole lotta drivers saying "whoa". If he waits for things to settle he should be ok with a brush move, or first over move, and we should be looking at a Cup winner.

#3 Deuce Seelster - Is simply a very nice little horse. He should be able to get some sort of trip there, and is likely to hit the ticket somewhere.

#4 Badlands Nitro - What does Sears do? I think he will blast. If so, he should be right near the thick of it turning for home. Obvious to hit the exactor ticket.

#5 Sand Shooter - As we have said, he was foul gaited last week. Can Miller work a trip?

#6 Mucho Sleazy - Seems outclassed here.

#7 Art Official - If they somehow mix it up, watch for him. I think on paper, he is the second best.

#8 Dali - Looking for a trip.

#9 Lennon Blue Chip - Seems a cut below these. I can't see him being a part of it at the end. Longshot.

#10 Keystone Horatio - No doubt RW has gone through this race in his mind 100 times, and I can't believe he likes what he sees. He is up against it.

My bets based on a $1000 bankroll and my fair odds line:

$6 to win on Sand Shooter if he is 16-1 or over.
$65 to win on Somebeachsomewhere if he is 4-5 or over.

My superfecta plays (which I won't play because they are no value):
2-47-47-all
2-47-all-47
2-all-47-47

My longshot super play (20 cents)

7-5-all-all
7-all-5-all

Joe G's Speed Figures and Full Card Notes

To receive Joe's analysis and chat about using figures for harness racing, go to his website Buggies Don't Pay. It is free.

Lets start with the big race (7th): Not a lot of value here. Like a lot of people I see the favorite having a better then 50% chance to win. I will look to bet the straight exacta 2/4,8,10 only if 2 of the three options pays better then $12 per $2 bet. Otherwise a pass on the exacta. #10 at 15/1 ML is within 2 speed points #2 so I may put a small win bet at 20/1 or greater.

A few comments on each race:

1st: 9,10/9,10,8 exacta and bet #9 and/or #10 to win if either over 12/1 odds
2nd: 5,8,1 to win if any over 12/1. Box exacta if 2 of 3 over 6/1 odds
3rd: Trot race with seemingly clear favorite. Pass.
4th: Bet #4 if 10/1 or greater and exacta 1,4/1,4,7 if odds decent
5th: Top two picks low ML odds. Pass.
6th: Watch odds on #9. Bet if 10/1 or greater and straight exacta 9/3,2 if decent payout
8th: Bet 5,10 if either 12/1 or greater. Exacta 5,10/5,10,3
9th: Trot. Have 2,3/2,3,8,6. Should not be good odds. Pass.
10th: Have 6-4-10-9. Watch for big odds from 10,9. Bet either at 20/1 or greater.
11th: Tough race. Have 5,10/5,10,3,2,8. May not be good odds on exacta end. Probable pass.
12th: #4 a 12/1 ML. Will bet to win at 10/1 or greater and 4,1/4,2,9,7 if odds good.
13th: #10 at 7/1 ML. Good separation. Will bet to win at 8/1 or greater and 10/6,2,8,3 with 6/10,3 exactas

ROI Figures at Large Ovals:
Top Pick 2 or more points (Fig) over second pick: Win%: 26%, ROI +1%
Top Pick 2 or more points (Fig) over second pick and 10/1 or greater: Win %: 13%, ROI +48%

Pick Within 2 points of top horse and odds 12/1 or greater: Win%: 9%, ROI +52%

Joe's Cup XXV Speed Figures

6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 2 SOMEBEACHS 1.6 124.0 128 110 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 8 DALI 8.0 123.0 123 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 4 BADLANDS N 4.0 122.2 126 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 10 KEYSTONE H 15.0 122.0 122 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 1 SANTANNA B 10.0 120.8 122 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 3 DEUCE SEEL 8.0 119.6 123 106 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 6 MUCHO SLEA 15.0 119.5 123 108 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 5 SAND SHOOT 8.0 119.0 123 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 7 ART OFFICI 5.0 117.7 123 107 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 9 LENNON BLU 30.0 117.3 119 101 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE AE1 UPFRONT HA 113.3 119 103 No
Joe's Full Card Mohawk Figures

Date Track Race Gait PP Horse ML Fig 3B
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 10 DURHAMS CA 6.0 116.4 119 97 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 9 PACIFIC PR 15.0 115.3 122 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 8 THEMACHMAN 7.0 114.4 117 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 2 STONEBRIDG 4.0 112.6 117 93 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 3 GIBRALTAR 5.0 112.2 115 97 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 1 KING JOE 8.0 110.9 114 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 6 MASTER THE 12.0 110.8 111 92 No
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 5 FAUST BLUE 8.0 108.4 114 101 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 1 PACE 4 RINESTONE 3.0 107.3 117 86 No

6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 5 WINDSUN CA 6.0 117.9 119 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 8 DEDALOS 3.5 117.6 120 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 1 LATENITE R 8.0 117.5 121 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 2 SKY TANTRU 5.0 115.0 120 93 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 4 LEGACY N D 4.5 114.6 116 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 10 JOSHUA PAR 15.0 114.5 117 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 7 LOST BLISS 5.0 114.4 117 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 3 SHAWS CREE 20.0 113.2 116 93 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 6 MY MASTERP 8.0 110.6 116 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 2 PACE 9 BELIEVEINB 8.0 99.4 109 75 No

6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 6 WINDSONG E 1.6 103.0 103 83 No
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 1 CLERK MAGI 7.0 98.2 101 83 No
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 8 DON GIOVAN 6.0 97.1 100 84 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 4 B STRIKE T 6.0 94.6 99 81 No
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 9 O U GUS 25.0 94.4 97 80 No
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 2 DEFINE THE 8.0 92.3 98 82 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT AE1 DI MANGGIO 91.4 94 75 No
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 7 WILDCAT SH 30.0 90.2 93 75 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 3 MOON DREAM 3.0 89.0 95 81 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 5 GUIDA MUSC 20.0 87.6 92 76 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 3 TROT 10 SUPERFAST 30.0 87.6 93 76 No

6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 4 IDLE HOUR 7.0 119.6 121 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 1 LONESTAR L 2.5 119.4 122 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 7 FRANKYLUVS 7.0 116.4 121 106 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 10 FOUR STARZ 5.0 114.8 120 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE AE1 LEGACY N D 114.6 116 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 8 SHADOW PLA 15.0 113.8 117 101 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 6 UPFRONT HA 10.0 113.3 119 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 5 ON THE BRI 8.0 112.9 120 105 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 2 TRADE EDIT 6.0 112.2 116 100 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 9 STONEBRIDG 4.0 112.2 118 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 4 PACE 3 SPACE WALK 15.0 106.1 113 94 No

Date Track Race Gait PP Horse ML Fig Spd LastBR 3B
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 2 A AND GS C 2.5 119.0 119 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 1 TUG RIVER 2.0 118.0 118 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 7 CHANCEY LA 6.0 115.9 126 97 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 6 A FIESTY A 10.0 115.1 127 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 10 SPRIG HANO 15.0 114.8 119 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 8 CUZ SHE CA 15.0 113.0 115 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 5 UP FRONT B 7.0 112.6 120 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 3 ARTIMITTAT 7.0 112.3 118 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 4 HAS AN ATT 15.0 110.5 114 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 5 PACE 9 CRUZIN INY 20.0 107.9 114 97 No

6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 9 SECRETS NE 4.0 127.0 127 107 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 3 ZOOKA 10.0 124.6 133 120 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 2 WESTERN SH 2.0 124.5 128 104 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 5 ESCAPABLE 10.0 122.5 124 104 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 4 JUSTICE CA 15.0 122.2 128 104 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 6 WINDSUN BE 4.5 122.1 123 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 1 EAGLE LUCK 5.0 119.8 131 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 8 I ZEE 15.0 118.0 121 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 6 PACE 7 LITTLE AMO 6.0 113.5 119 97 No

6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 2 SOMEBEACHS 1.6 124.0 128 110 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 8 DALI 8.0 123.0 123 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 4 BADLANDS N 4.0 122.2 126 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 10 KEYSTONE H 15.0 122.0 122 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 1 SANTANNA B 10.0 120.8 122 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 3 DEUCE SEEL 8.0 119.6 123 106 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 6 MUCHO SLEA 15.0 119.5 123 108 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 5 SAND SHOOT 8.0 119.0 123 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 7 ART OFFICI 5.0 117.7 123 107 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 7 PACE 9 LENNON BLU 30.0 117.3 119 101 Yes

6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 5 BLISSED OU 7.0 117.8 122 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 10 OUR LUCKY 5.0 117.3 126 110 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 9 BUCKEYE ON 4.0 115.8 118 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 8 CAMIFICATI 4.5 115.6 119 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 4 ARMBRO DOW 8.0 115.2 118 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 3 BUTTON UP 6.0 114.8 124 91 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 7 OUTRIGHT 8.0 113.2 120 105 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 2 IMPECCABLE 8.0 112.2 114 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 1 IRISH ELIT 15.0 110.5 114 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 8 PACE 6 WESTCOAST 10.0 107.8 113 99 No

Date Track Race Gait PP Horse ML Fig Spd LastBR 3B
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 2 WARRAWEE J 5.0 94.0 98 80 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 3 LANTERN KR 2.0 92.7 95 76 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 8 HAWAIIANPH 8.0 91.0 91 71 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 6 BELLA DOLC 8.0 90.5 93 76 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 10 SAORSE 12.0 89.3 91 73 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 5 SUSAN XYZ 15.0 88.4 93 72 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 7 SOMEBODY T 7.0 87.5 93 81 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT AE1 CELEBRITY 87.0 87 67 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 9 WHATTA HOT 25.0 86.6 91 75 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 1 PRADA HALL 6.0 79.4 88 79 No
6/14/08 MOH 9 TROT 4 AMY KANE 6.0 66.2 86 80 No

6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 6 THONG 4.5 115.0 118 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 4 VOELZ HANO 4.0 114.0 114 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 10 ARTS DIVA 15.0 113.2 117 97 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 9 CALL ME YO 15.0 112.4 121 92 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 7 WESTSIDE G 12.0 111.4 114 92 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE AE1 CHANGING G 110.6 112 93 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 8 DRAGONFEST 10.0 110.2 112 93 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 1 IM JUST SP 6.0 108.8 112 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 2 LADYCINO 8.0 106.4 110 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 3 SOUTHWIND 8.0 104.0 109 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 10 PACE 5 HAPPY DREA 3.0 96.1 106 93 No

6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 5 JUNIOR K 5.0 121.2 126 112 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 10 FOX VALLEY 4.5 120.0 122 104 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 3 ESCAPE THE 2.5 118.4 121 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 2 AWESOME LI 12.0 117.5 119 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 8 BALANCHINE 12.0 117.2 119 102 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 6 ACCEPTABLE 5.0 116.7 122 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 9 SIPWITHTHE 10.0 115.1 116 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 7 SKEDADDLE 12.0 112.8 117 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 4 THE GRIN M 10.0 103.6 111 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 11 PACE 1 JUSTSHOWYO 7.0 101.5 114 102 No

6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 4 CUBAN SEEL 12.0 124.8 125 105 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 2 ALLAMERICA 3.0 123.5 127 103 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 9 ONE MORE T 4.5 121.0 124 101 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 7 BIGTIME BA 3.5 120.0 120 100 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 6 NIFTY FELL 5.0 119.3 121 102 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 3 INFINITE J 10.0 117.7 123 105 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 1 MAGICAL GG 15.0 115.9 118 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 8 CLOWNS SMI 5.0 114.0 118 94 No
6/14/08 MOH 12 PACE 5 EINSTEINS 10.0 111.8 117 100 No

Date Track Race Gait PP Horse ML Fig Spd LastBR 3B
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 10 LUNDIN 7.0 113.8 115 96 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 6 BEAL HANOV 4.5 110.2 115 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 2 TOTALLY EX 8.0 109.0 113 96 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 8 MACH HULA 8.0 108.8 110 90 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 3 GASCON HAN 4.0 108.1 114 99 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 5 BLATANTLY 7.0 107.6 112 93 Yes
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 9 GRIN AND T 7.0 105.0 111 95 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 7 FLIGHTS MO 10.0 97.5 110 98 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 1 GEMSTONE 15.0 0.0 0 No
6/14/08 MOH 13 PACE 4 JUST THE B 5.0 0.0 0 No

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