Wednesday, June 24, 2009

North America Cup Analysis

Here is my take on the Cup Saturday. I will probably be playing this race as there is sure to be some value on the board.

1 - OK Borimir: Last weeks 30-1 was a bit long on this colt, but he remains a longshot. Luc will no doubt be looking for a slice of the $1.5M pot, and sitting the wood.

2 - Mr. Wiggles: Big shot, and the 15-1 ML is from Mars. This colt was impressive in the Hempt, paces sound as can be and is a legitimate threat to take all the marbles. He did not beat much in his elimination, but he went a huge first quarter on an off track, so he deserved to be a little tired.

3 - Dial or No Dial: Nice mile last week and strangely this guy has been lost in the shuffle a little bit. I think there is a chance that odds can be had on him and he might be underbet. Huge shot to take it down.

4 - If I Can Dream: I have no idea what to make of this horse. He does not look world class by any stretch, but he got the job done last week and won in a walk. He woke up when he entered the Brainard barn last year, but at times has been flat. It would not surprise me to see him run 8th, and it would not surprise me to see him win. A total question mark for me.

5 - Well Said: I would not bet him anywhere near his ML (the ML seems way out of whack this year). I am a fan of this horse and was on his bandwagon for the BC last year where we got a good price, but price is everything and I do not think we will get it. He has a good shot to win of course. No secret there, but an equipment change last week, off two sub par efforts, and a hard fought head win, just gives me a bad feeling about his chances.

6. Keep It Real: The east coast horse is probably the best horse in the race. He left hard from outside last time, got hung a bit and was still firing at the end. I think that first quarter took quite a bit out of him last time, and if he gets a trip, he could be $750k richer.

7. Art Colony: This horse hung like a chandelier last year in several starts where he was in a perfect position to win, and this year nothing has changed. Racing for fifth.

8. Chasin Racin: Nice colt, but he has had good trips and has not converted. He is a longshot, and one I can't play.

9. Annieswesterncard: I give this guy a fighting chance at huge odds. He was the chalk in the Metro last year, and he has the back class to contend with this group. A race like this comes down to trips, so if he fires out and gets one, he can light up the toteboard. An angle going for him: A closer flashing speed in his previous start is usually worth a poke. I will more than likely be playing him a little bit and sprinkle him in the exotics.

10. Millionaire Cam: Only a long, longshot's chance.

Most probable winner: Keep It Real
Power Rating Top Three: Keep It Real, Well Said, Dial or No Dial

My plays:

Win on Annieswesterncard, 20-1 or over
Win on Mr. Wiggles, if over 7-1
Win on Dial or No Dial, if over 4-1

Ex box: Mr. Wiggles, Annieswesterncard and Dial or No Dial

Supers: Annieswesterncard and Mr Wiggles, grouped with the chalks, with a couple of all's in the three and four spots.

Good luck everyone.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Three words.....Keep It Real

Anonymous said...

Trying to analyze how it may setup, you have to believe Brennan is heading to the front end and now that Art Colony is no longer "sick" he is likely going to contest. I'd expect Luc and Wiggles will be pushing hard out of there for good position ( 2 or 3 hole). If Tetrick rolls the dice and leaves hard, then we set up for a pretty contested pace. Based on what I have seen there is not much doubt he has the best kick amongst the lot. I see him working out a 3rd over here behind very live horses ( Dial and Well Said ) so I am all in on KIR.

PS

In reference to casie talking about racing Colony "sick" for two weeks, who the heck does that???? Man she says dumb stuff at times.

Blaine said...

Breeders Crown form validated. Well Said just set all the records. His performance was, pardon the pun, well said.