Thursday, September 1, 2011

Going After the Dumb Money

About 2PM today, the S&P turned downwards, with traders worried about an overbought market on light volume, especially with the jobs news due out in the morning.

CNBC spoke during the day about what to expect, and analysts relayed to the viewing public options, ETF's and other conduits to play the news. Traders, fund managers, investors big and small - from a guy with $1M in his account, to a mother from Iowa with $10k in her self-directed retirement account - were watching, planning a move.

What's a VIX? What's a stochastic? What's a LIBOR rate? How do I write a naked put?

There are many people who know this form of "gambling" like the back of their hand. And a lot of them have never set foot into Wharton.

Just how big are the markets? Here are the top few stocks on my ticker:


Google traded over a billion dollars today alone.

We always hear about scratch tickets or slots taking away our racing patrons, and there is truth in that. But why do we try and out-do a lottery with 18% takeout head to head bets and other poor-value ideas, when there are savvy people who are our target demo, playing the markets each day?

We'd all like dumb money in racing, but the dumb money likes to pull a lever; and we don't have levers. We have an intricate puzzle that needs to be unwrapped and unravelled, tantamount to the morning tomorrow when people are deciding to short or go long the QQQ's (or myriad other options) after the jobs number comes out.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The "smart" money has also left the game. I now spend more time following the market than i do with racing.