Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Raw Talent, What about the Playa & Some Depressing Odds

Jim Takter updated everyone on the health of See You At Peelers via Trot radio. It appears she had a hard to detect lung infection, but is "still not right" according to Takter. He trained her in 51, with a heart monitor.

How can a horse train in 51 and be not right? Because she's a superstar and there are good 51's and bad 51's when you are dealing with horses like that. I would have loved to seen her in the Jug if she was right; she would've had a good chance against that group, in my opinion.

There is a large carryover tonight at Balmoral Park and it is sure to be a record pool. HANA has some links to selections and a pdf of tonight's program. 

A couple of years ago New York raised takeout on some exotics to pay for the New York City OTB's. The OTB's are now gone, the takeout hike is still there, and slots are online with over $30 million going to purses at Aqueduct next meet. Where's the player in all this? You guessed it, nowhere. When handle is down several years from now I am pretty sure someone will say "with all these great purses, I wonder why we aren't doing better?"

The Ontario Racing Commission, who presided over the same mechanism with slots in this province had to do a shifty change of course after ten or so years of handle losses (they too - along with the rest of the industry up here - thought big purses would result in rising handles). They developed a new plan on race dates and what horses can enter where (at times the best horses would be going to tracks with zero handles, and jogging at 1-9). So far it is a moderate success.

While all the cash goes to purses - like everywhere else in slotsville - non-skill gambling games seem to flourish. How they do it, I have no firm idea, but then again:
  • In a 2006 survey, 30 percent of people without a high school degree said that playing the lottery was a wealth-building strategy. 
That might explain it.

Hitting a superfecta into a 26% rake - over time - will probably make you go broke. But for the lotto player, it tends to be even faster. Check this simulation and see how you do. Man, that is depressing.

5 comments:

Blaine said...

See You At Peelers is a special filly. However, there is no way she can TRAIN in :51 and have something wrong with her. PLEASE!!!!!! Additionally, I gotta give props to the ultra-consistent Idyllic. Her gutty victory in the Jugette speaks to exactly who she is. Not as brfilliant as SYAP, but always in the race and NEVER off the board in her career.

Anonymous said...

Hello Blaine,

Have you been around world champions and Mr. Takter?

Jim trains them between starts at speed and there is little doubt he trained her in 151. She had to get up to speed to get the heart data the team needed.

World Champions overcome - Big Jim with two bad ankles trained alone at Mohawk in such speed. She is no exception. SHe could easily go 51 with heart palpatations, off a virus.

Lastly: Yes, you can tell when they are "off" in a 51 mile. Takter has been around long enough to know; he is not stupid.

Regards,

Dick

Pull the Pocket said...

You would know, of course, but you bring up a great point with Takter. Two years ago he zipped Vintage Master similar speed over the farm track. If I remember correctly he threw in a dud the next week.

I'm really interested to see Peelers next one. I hope the ten days of meds does the trick (and that she races in 2012!)

PTP

Blaine said...

So I'm to believe that she train as fast as she paced when she was all out to win the Tarport Hap? OK Dick, if you say so I'll believe it. Seems kinda odd that a top trainer like Takter would run the risk of something catastrophic happening knowing SYAP is not 100%.

Pull the Pocket said...

Blaine,

Just a point to clarify the training mile. She had to get up to speed to do the stress test, and he opted to do it at the home track rather than at Cornell:

"I was a little bit scared of it," Takter said of the stress
test. "They put the horse up to :51 speed. I'm still a little
scared of it but I think I have to find out what's actually
going on with her at high speed."

And the reason she was not in top shape, was according to the vets doing the test:

"She was actually very good in the training mile but you could see on the EKG that she had eight interruptions during that mile," Takter said. "They think after the medication, she is going to be fine. "

So, no puzzle here - she had to go fast to get tested and she did, and the test showed she still had a heart issue during the training.

PTP