Friday, October 28, 2011

Breeders Crown, Here We Go

Tomorrow evening at 6:30 starts a big night at Woodbine. I'll take a look at a few races here, and if you have any horses you like (or want to call me a big dummy for my selections) please comment below.

As usual, since everyone can read the odds board and know who the chalk bets and likely winners are, I will probably focus (and bet) several price horses.

Race 1 - Mares Open Trot

This one is a real head-scratcher for me. The wiseguy horse and software horse (we were on her here on Hambo Day at a nice price) is Jersey As. I can't do it, because I can't bet short priced horses who are going to get away 7th or worse. I am going to go bomb shopping here if the on-track looks cooperate. Emmylou Who has looked lame in the back her last two in the PP, but she's raced well. If she looks any better tomorrow, I am on her. Pembroke Heat Wave has not been bad all year and has been here at McNair's farm for awhile. After Friendly Amigo brushed and crushed in Lex I thought she might be sore. After a couple of weeks (and with a driver change people will fade) I might have a look at her at a bomb price. Great race for betting.

Bet: Emmylou Who if she does not look hikey.

Race 2 - 2YO Filly Trot

This race starts and ends with the chalk for me. When she lost to Win Missy B she was not at her best, and the other time the latter was a runaway who somehow stayed. Miss Paris, I think, was not at her best last time, and if I chuck WMB, I will use her underneath. For a Dancer trots like a little metronome.

Bet: Check Me Out onto Miss Paris, For a Dancer and  Real Babe

Race 3 - 2YO Filly Pace

This is a good race which is very deep. If Economy Terror comes in soft, and is well bet, the exotics might light up the board. I can't play the chalk, without a trip over the track. From there, you have a lot of possibles. Handsoffmycookie is a wise guy horse who can win. Ed Hart might have Pirouette fresh. Shelliscape and Big McDeal are solid stock. Is Angel Sent getting better? Off a month off she aired, and if she was not tight for that, she may be sitting on a huge one. I may go way off the board here and bet Podges Lady. She was sick for the SAGL final and she's some stock. Now, cue the chalk to win by ten.

Bet: Podges, for a flyer longshot. Handsoffmycookie if over 4-1.

Race 4 - 2YO Colt Pace

Who shows up and races big? The 3,4,5,7 and 8 are all likely winners and this may be a trip race. I am not a huge Sweet Lou fan, and Rock n Roll Dance (whom I love) will be heavily bet. I may go to the wiseguy horse here, Hurrikane King Cole (who is 20-1 ML and won't be near that come post time), and way off the board with Mark Harder's colt from the outside.

Bet: Hurrikane King Cole to win. Longshot: Lawgiver Hanover

Race 5 - 2YO Colt Trot

There are no superstars here, and that makes it a good betting race. The 3,4,5 are good horses and one of them is likely. Prestidigtation was good in his last with a no shot trip. If the crowd is fading Takter as a driver too much I may play him, but I expect he won't be in my price range. I don't mind two longshots on the ticket. Little Brown Fox is not a bad colt, grabs Campbell and was boxed in his last. Dan Daley's colt, Royal Shyster, looked good last time and had trot. Swing for the fences?

Bet: Little Brown Fox, at a price

Race 6 - Mares Pace

I feel Anndrovette will be very overbet. I am leaning towards taking a poke on Western Silk or Chancey Lady at prices. The former had pace last time, and the latter throws in a huge race now and again off a subpar line (I bet her in Lexington when she almost stole it at 9-1).

Bet: WS and CL on top of the 1567 and 10

Race 7 - Open Colt Trot

The fun begins. San Pail has had it pretty easy this season and one wonders if this is the race he is tested hard. The European horses add a big wrench into the mix, and I don't know what to do with them, although I know Rapide is fast. I still love Hot Shot Blue Chip as a big bomb here (I bet him at Lex, trying to beat San Pail last month and he was great).

Bet: I'll probably watch and enjoy, or bet a few bucks across on Hot Shot Blue Chip. Congrats to Moira and Tom working the phones to make this a great race.

Race 8 - 3YO Filly Pace

Drop the Ball beats herself only.

Bet: DTB onto Swinging Beauty and Strike an Attitude for an action bet

Race 9 - 3YO Colt Trot

Chapter Seven won with his ears pricked in a 27 last Q. That's enough for me. I watched the Man of Many Missions replay three times and he still looks off to me.

Bet: Chapter Seven if over 2-1

Race 10 - 3YO Filly Trot

Cedar Dove is very good, but I am going off the board with Crys Dream. I think she will be super tight tomorrow off her last. I honestly am not in love with anyone else. The whole field looks kind of spent to me.

Bet: Crys Dream onto all, all onto Crys Dream

Race 11 - 3YO Colt Pace

What to do here? If you bet Big Bad John, Alsace Hanover and Roll With Joe, or take a $10 tri box, I can't argue much. I think the winner comes from one of those three. This, along with the Open Trot, is the highlight of the night for me as a fan.

Bet: I am a spectator, unless one of those three reach playable odds.

Race 12 - FFA Pace

This race begins and ends with We Will See for me, off a tremendous prep. I am tired of getting beat by this colt. I might use One More Laugh behind him, because that horse can throw a big one once in awhile, and might be sharp tomorrow.

Good luck everyone!

4 comments:

Pacingguy said...

In the race I am waiting for (as a fan), the 7th; I am going to go with Rapide Lebel. The horse has been near perfect with most of the races being multiple-heat. Granted, the shipping over is a question mark, but here, there is no saving anything as it is a single dash.

On the other hand, if San Pail wins, you have your Aged Trotter, Trotter of the Year, Horse of the Year crowned.

Anonymous said...

Some morning line's seem generous, i.e. Hurrikane and Handsoffmycookie

Blaine said...

I see nothing but shots winning BC races. Favorites work too hard in their elims to pick their gate and get leg-weary in the lane. Go for it w/ the 10-1's tomorrow people. Back-wheel the chalks and ya get paid. You heard it here first.

Anonymous said...

I hope Casie and Pierce win three each so I can enjoy the interviews.

-Big Bad John
-Prestigitiation
-Autumn Escapade

.... three I like

Phil