Sometimes You Just Never Know

A horse who wins at 8.5 furlongs, 9 furlongs and 10 furlongs with authority. A horse who looks magnificently sound, who strides out in his last work like a Champion. He's got a great trainer and a great rider. The whole world seems to be cheering for him and he's 3-5 to boot.

But he races poorly.

Sometimes you just never know.

Orb, obviously a fine horse, didn't fire. Mylute, who (with respect) is not in the same zip code in terms of talent, not only closes from behind him, but widens on him. It'smyluckyday made the Florida Derby look like a mirage.

I guess the excuses can and may come. He had a trip like Union Rags had in last year's Florida Derby, which was (wrongly, in my opinion) blamed for his poor performance (and started the 'replace the rider' rumblings), but it probably wasn't that. People can talk form cycles and see a chink in the armor, but I doubt it was that either. Sometimes horse's just have a bad day. And I think Orb had a bad day.

As for the winner, the speed that everyone was speaking about didn't happen, and from pre-race commentary, that could've been deduced. The winner took advantage of that. Oxbow was a bet back horse for a lot of people as well, because he was the only horse that engaged the speed in the Derby who wasn't screaming with lactic acid build up with 400 yards to go. His Derby was a good performance.

What can you say. It's disappointing. It's kind of shocking. But such is horse racing.

Notes:

The undercard was somewhat underwhelming with all the scratches. Players that I know get stoked for the Derby undercard as much as they do the Derby. In my opinion, Pimlico should work harder on their pick 4 and 5 sequences come Preakness day. It's important to bigger players. You need them energized each year, like they are for the Derby.

Speed was super on the Turf, which made the pick 4 easier. Pianist looked like an obvious leader. Skyring was going, too. Both won and paid well.

Speed was better on the dirt than it had been too, I believe. Although in some races they sure didn't go much.

Rudy Rodriguez who can't buy a win at Belmont, won three races the last two days at Pimlico.

Bob Baffert's horse, Zee Bros, hit a wall the last 110 yards in the Derby trial, but before that point in his mile, looked like a monster. Today, with the turnback, the horse was a gift. I say that after the race. I didn't bet him, which is my bad!

Enjoy your Saturday night everyone. I'm still an Orb fan and can't wait for his next race. I'm sure you are too.