Friday Notes & Some Pics

Happy Friday everyone, on the lead-up to the bittersweet long weekend that serves as the unofficial end of summer.

This Saturday evening there's a fantastic racecard at Mohawk Raceway. Several stakes are slated to go, including the $680k Metro for two year olds and the Canadian Pacing Derby for older pacers. Each year this big day kind of stumps me. I don't know if it's because we have fatigue from the summer stakes season, it's just not promoted well, or whatever, but there is always a lack of buzz for this event. And, really, it doesn't make much sense considering the Meadowlands each year is closed, and there is not a lot of good harness racing against the evening. Here are the entries, and I will link out a free program when I find a link.

H/T to Equidaily, here is a story on dog tracks wanting to decouple the gaming from the racing in Florida. Things like this should never be glossed over by those at smaller slots tracks - thoroughbred or harness - who just put on the races to put on the races.

Via a UK mathematics of betting dude:

This factor which destroys many pre-race draw or pace analyses: trainers and jockeys react to prevent disadvantages by switching/taking back
— James Willoughby (@Prof_Hindsight) August 30, 2013

This is always interesting. In harness often times we do see a race that has six or seven speedballs, and we call for a hot pace. However, the trainers and drivers aren't stupid, they see it too, and react. In thoroughbred racing it is slightly more difficult to dictate how a big early horse races, but I bet you could count on more than one hand when a speed horse is strangled and a pace brouhaha does not develop.

Looking at a long term database I have seen this from time to time. Races with a hugely early race shape often provide one with a winner that takes the race gate to wire, or shows speed, and pays alright. The crowd underbets the speed horses, overbets the closers, and when one speed horse does not go hard, you're left with a speed winner whom is underbet. Fascinating, I think.

I posted a few pics on twitter this weekend of a trainer and friend swimming one of our horses, in the ocean. He says they like it, the ocean is not far, and it's something they've always done. I thought the pics were cool, especially the disbelieving boater in the last one. Have a nice long weekend everyone.