Winning Player Post Follow Up - 3 Building Blocks to Win More Often

I got a lot of horseplayer feedback on this weekend's post about how often different subsets of winning horseplayers end up green. Thanks for that!

I promised a follow-up, so here we go. 

I'd like to leave aside the volume players in this discussion, because let's face it, most people aren't going to start playing $4 million a year through the windows. It's hard enough to compete nowadays with CAW's flooding that zone anyway. 

I'd like to examine the lower volume spot-type players. These are very seasoned folks who've developed a way to beat the game. We can, in my view, learn a lot from them. 

Picking Spots, Keeping an Even Keel

First, these folks win only around 40% of racedays, which means a couple of things, i) they aren't hammering the chalk and ii) they have developed a winning mindset that allows them to lose more frequently than they win and still keep playing week by week. 

Finding spots where the betting pools have made a mistake - playing horses from say 3-1 to 7-1, and in many cases higher - is a big part of their games.  It's definitely a learned skill, but in my view, many people on my twitter feed have this skill. Keeping an even keel (and executing these opinions in the proper way) is the bugaboo.

The Defensive Trap

Despite strong handicapping skill, many are still underwater and I believe this is where the second point comes into play -- they've developed the winning mindset. And because they win, this mindset allows them to play free. 

What do I mean by playing free? It's quite a bit about what ITP got flamed on twitter about for so long - they don't care even one iota if they win or lose the bet, they just want to ensure they bet their opinion properly. 

That involves, as I see it, not falling into defensive mindsets. 

Here's an example:

When a good (but not winning) player sniffs out a 9-1 horse, he or she often plays it defensively. This involves boxing up the horse with the chalk, taking chalk underneath, or in supers, or tris, or trying to group it with a chalk double to get "extra juice" on the bet. I can't tell you how many times I see this.

It's exactly wrong.  

When I ask a player I know who is sharp who he likes in a certain race and he tells me a 15-1 shot that ends up winning, I look at who ran on the bottom. If it's a first or second choice, I know he's dead. If it's a 6-1 or 10-1 horse who looked like they could clunk it up, I ping him to see if he scored and I usually get back, "I got the exacta". And he doesn't bet it for $3 or because he bet a wheel. 

When we think about this mathematically it makes sense. We like a 9-1 shot, so we probably don't like the chalk. Even if we like the chalk some underneath and don't like anything in the ex, we should just be betting win. Why have a $20 winner and a $40 exacta with a short shot we don't really like? 

For further evidence of this, listen to the Sport of Kings pod with Chris Larmay sometime. When he has an opinion on a 10-1 shot, when do you hear him say he's going to bet exs or tris with the favorite? Never. 

The defensive mindset is strong and it's very hard to shake. These players never acquiesce to it. 

We Need to Learn to Race

For many folks, winning 40% or less of the days is not a viable path in developing the winning mindset skills the great players tend to have. Bankroll management and emotional control is a steely beast to stab on the jump. 

I have a couple of (stolen) suggestions that may help.  

Mike Maloney (for my money one of the greatest to ever play this game) has spoken about not having to big game hunt. With limited bankrolls so many players seek glory in pick 5 pools when they should be betting their opinions in pick 3 pools, or doubles. 

Personally, I have pivoted from spending $X in pick 4 and 5 pools to maybe 1/10thX on those pools. I play pick 3's, doubles or vertically at much higher rates in this new CAW land. The nearer the pool the more transparent they are, and I am eliminating some risk. 

The effects of this are obvious, and twofold, i) You cash more tickets, giving you added confidence in your play, and ii) your bankroll is less swingy, reducing the probability of tilting, and overextension. 

Second, and this one is partially stolen from ITP:

No matter how much we like the horse, we don't have to bet every pool around him or her, searching for glory scores. If the bet - whether it be an ex, tri, double or pick 3 or pick 4 - is not there, it's not there. 

This tip is personally difficult for me, even to this day, and I have to continually check myself. 

Recently I loved a horse which I considered one of those "bet of the year" things we tend to prattle on about. He was 5-1, and I frankly hated the pick n's around him, and didn't really like anything underneath. I spent oodles of cash on exotics anyway, because well, I'm dumb. 

The horse won. I didn't cash a single exotic. I wasn't even close. I made money on the race because a $12 winner is good, yet felt I lost miserably. I don't know why I still put myself through it, but no one said this game was easy. 

In the end, I believe that before we reach the Groovy sprinting skill and Affirmed mental toughness of the 40% winning days player above, we have learn to race. Learning to race means (in part) more winning days than losing days to give us confidence we can do it.

Sure we can split pick 6 tickets with friends, or take stabs at carryovers, but big game hunting or having to sweep pools because we love a horse tends to lead us into some very bad places. 

Summary

First thanks for reading and please share your thoughts on twitter or elsewhere, and second thanks to the players who chatted with me. It's a weird game. We compete, yet we're open to talk about this difficult, passionate game. 

Have a super rest of the day everyone.