There was a video posted today that I think can help some pure handicappers who sometimes struggle with betting. It's from Pizzola, and it solely focuses on betting markets, and betting market moves.
In 1986 or 1996 or 2006, the odds board mattered - it was a free information source - but in 2026 it probably matters more than ever before. Understanding it, in my view (and it appears Rob, who is a successful sports bettor) is of utmost importance.
A couple nuggets from the video -
"The Gut Check". If you love a horse (in the video's case, a team or player prop) and the market is well outside your price, the chances you missed something is undeniably strong. Did we miss that the horse was buried in his last? Is the race condition built for this horse and there's a hidden big class drop we didn't see? Is there something nefarious at play? Is the pace scenario completely different than we imagine?
Time after time after time I find when my numbers are outside the market I missed something.
On Chris's pod awhile back I noted that in 2006 if I saw a 8-1 horse I loved and had 3-1 I would likely bet with both fists, but in 2026 I am extremely cautious, oftentimes not betting the horse at all, or betting someone else.
No, not all the time - I am against the market many times a month - and Rob addresses it in the video. But recognizing the characteristics and the patterns when the market is telling me I am wrong is a massive part of my current play.
Rob "treats the market movement as a free data input", and I thought this is very informative. This is exactly what CAW's do, and again on Chris's pod I talked a about an old story. It was regarding the legendary bettor Alan Woods going after a Triple Trio carryover in Hong Kong. He was watching the Betfair markets and said to his posse (as they were ready to fire hundreds of thousands of dollars into the pool) "I think we might be wrong on this lean boys". If a guy who is a defacto market maker in Hong Kong pools pay attention, we sure as hell should be.
I think the warm and cuddly one ITP said years ago on twitter that he could take a sports bettor like Rob, hand them a betting exchange with 5% win juice, teach them a few things and within months they'd be very competitive betting horses. I think one of the reasons he said that is because high level sports bettors can read markets better than most, and they put aside their egos enough to gain an edge with it. Recognizing if a market is real or memorex is super important today.
Have a nice Thursday everyone. I hope you enjoy the video.
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