Friday, December 14, 2007

50K Pick 7 carryover is now ..........

.......... and I can't even form a respectable ticket. I think I would have to spend about $34,524 - and I still might miss it.

Here are my thoughts.

Race 3: Looks like someone can steal this on the front end. Margie Seelster is the talent, though. So let's try 23 and 7

Race 4: 3,4 and 6 look like logical contenders.

Race 5: Joyous Occasion and Sugar Park might both be live tonight. I am going to make a stand here. You have to somewhere.

Race 6: Liberty Skiberty, if ready might be a solid key. Lady DM and Zena look like contenders.

Race 7: Smooth Muscles seems to have had some problems, but might be a logical key. If right, he can crush. 1,2 and 4 are others.

Race 8: Can I use all? Maybe if I was Bill Gates. 1,3,11 I guess.

Race 9: 3,5,7,8 in a brutal-to-handicap race.

Well, maybe I will take 237-346-36-4-234-1311-3578 = $648

Now, according to my calculator, which allows me to punch in fair odds of my contenders, shows just how much of a chance I have to hit this ticket.

Ready?

"The Probability of this 648 combination ticket is 0.84%"

At fair odds of around 110-1, that means I would have to cash about $70,000 to take this bet. Since there will probably be only $60,000 in the pool, before rake, I think I will pass.

Good luck to all who are taking a stab at hitting some riches.

2 comments:

Pull the Pocket said...

Plenty of second, third and fourths so far.

But that don't pay the bills.

0 for 5.

Glad I didnt play this ticket!

Pull the Pocket said...

I can't believe someone got six of seven. I thought for sure 5 would be tops.

On to tomorrow. See if I can get more than zero.