Sunday, July 13, 2008

Is Horseplaying a Science? Fagedaboudit!

I was heading off to Mohawk for dinner and to watch a few races on Saturday. I was having a poor day at the thoroughbreds; and had a poor day Friday as well. I had a nasty case of seconditis, and I am primarily a win bettor. Before I planned on getting ready to go, I flipped my handy jcapper output to race 8 at Monmouth. Up popped up a horse at a 20-1 morning line. He had the #1 ranked pace figure (which on the turf at Monmouth has been good lately), he had a little program that I wrote for Monmouth turf races as a play, and he was ranked third overall. His name was Fagedaboutit Sal.

7 +FAGEDABOUDIT SAL
Yellow_++_UDM
Mth_turf_UDM

.0622(6)
15.08
156(1)
41(4)











ML
20-1





I decided it was time to take a shot, he was 25-1 on the board and climbing, and worth a play. Well, my pal Sal took the lead early and never looked back:

#HorseJockeyWeightWinPlaceShow
7Fagedaboudit SalFragoso P11780.4023.8010.60
1Kiss the KidElliott S117
3.803.00
9Classic CampaignDesormeaux K J117

2.80

Even Larry's call was a good for the excitement near the wire ........ "Are they gonna catch Sal?......... Fagedaboudit!"

Anyhow, suddenly it was a good day. Things can turn on a dime.

Now the fun part. Today I was playing a few races as well. With about two minutes to race four I flip over to my Monmouth printout.

I see this:

8 +FAGEDABOUDIT GAL
Mth_turf_UDM

.1908(2)
4.24
147(1)
58(2)











61(2)
61(2)
ML15-1




#1 pace figure, she's on turf, the handy Turf UDM program I wrote signalled her - and she is a bomb price. It's pretty much a carbon-copy to Sal, 24 hours earlier.

I immediately called a friend who was playing and he said "I know what you are going to say!". I said "how can I not bet this horse today, it's gotta be some sort of sign (half-jokingly)?"

Well if this was a cool story I would say she jogged....... hold it. She did:

#HorseJockeyWeightWinPlaceShow
8Fagedaboudit GalRivera L Jr11926.409.805.40
3Goodness GreatnessMarquez C H Jr119
3.202.40
4Gaelic JourneyLezcano J122

4.00

She took the lead, just like Sal, and never looked back. Also just like Sal, the two chalks filled out the tri.

I am a hard-number horseplayer. I look at numbers, I study the game. I do not believe in karma, or coincidence, or anything else along those lines.

But today I suspended my belief. For this one day if anyone told me that wins and losses in racing are all pre-determined, and that we are all just pawns in the game, I would not be able to argue.

Note: I rarely speak of my personal betting here in any specifics - that goes for wins or losses. We all know it is generally considered bad manners in the Internet world to speak of horses you bet that won, after the race. Come to think of it, it is just like real life. Anyhow, forgive me just this once, because frankly I can almost guarantee something X-files like this will never happen again.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great news, really happy
for you!!!
Hopt this is the start
of a very long hot streak.

Cheers
Sly

Pull the Pocket said...

Heck Sly, I didnt say I kept the profits, there was still some losing to do before and after those races :)

Thanks bud.

I do hope everyone has a story like this once in awhile. It was flat out weird.

Come to think of it, has anyone ever hit a weird karma type double like that? I bet some people have.