Meadowlands Pace: Fair Odds Line

Well the time has come for some fair odds for the Pace Final. I must admit, with a big chalk, these are not very fun to do, but we will.

First, like we did for the North America Cup, we will look at what fans in Canada think by looking at the standardbred Canada poll.

HORSE		CHANCE	ODDS
Share the Delight		0.8%	/ 99-1
SomebeachSW		87.0%/	1-9
Sand Shooter		2.2%	/ 45-1
Atochia		0.2%	/ 99-1
Mucho Sleazy		0.5%	/ 99-1
Art Official		1.8%	/ 60-1
Bullville Powerful		1.1%	/ 90-1
Dontloseyrdjob		0.4%	/ 99-1
Badlands Nitro		2.8%	/ 35-1
Tiz a Masterpiece		1.1%	/ 90-1

I think they like Somebeach!! :)

Now our line:

HORSE		CHANCE	/ODDS
Share the Delight		6.3%	/15-1
SomebeachSW		64.5%	/3-5
Sand Shooter		7.7%	/12-1
Atochia		1.0%	/99-1
Mucho Sleazy		1.0%	/99-1
Art Official		5.9%	/16-1
Bullville Powerful		6.7%	/14-1
Dontloseyourrdayjob		1.1%	/90-1
Badlands Nitro		3.2%	/30-1
Tiz a Masterpiece		1.3%	/80-1

The main difference in the crowd voting in the poll and my line is of course Somebeachsomewhere. I would have him at a 75% chance, or maybe slightly below that, but he did drift in the stretch into the five or six path. The trainer is on record saying the shoeing was the culprit with his bad step and possible drift. But as we know, it is impossible to know everything and drifting is not necessarily a good handicapping sign - especially when we are dealing with a 1-9 shot. So I docked him a bit for that question mark.

It will be interesting to see if this is a boat race or not. Yannick is on record saying that he will be taking a shot with Buillville. If he does that makes things interesting perhaps. If not, and if Paul leaves with Beach like he did last week and the field is intimidated, I think the 2-1 ex would be more than fair value.

I can see them perhaps mix it up a wee bit. I did not feel like that at the Cup.

Enjoy the Pace this weekend. I hope we see something special.

Pocket's 2008 Bankroll Bets

Starting bankroll: $1000
NA Cup Bet: $7 to win on Sand Shooter if over 16-1- Accepted. $60 on Somebeachsomewhere if over 4-5 - No bet.
Result -$7
Current Bankroll: $993
Meadowlands Pace Possible Bets: $8 to win on Share the Delight if over 15-1. $8 to win on Art Official if over 16-1