Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Andy Let's Them Have It

Long fed up with the state of the game and the amazing differences in horse performance from the 1970's (when he cut his teeth) to today via the barn change, Andrew Beyer has been a one man wrecking ball. He echoes what many on both the backstretch as well as the grandstand have been saying about miraculous turnarounds from trainers getting new stock in his latest piece.

Such distrust has corroded the very foundation of the sport. Honest owners are reluctant to invest in the game when they believe they can't compete with the cheaters. Many bettors have lost enthusiasm because the art of handicapping has become an exercise in guessing who has the best "juice." The public at large is alienated when it suspects that drugs are tainting the sport's greatest events.

The horse he focuses on in the article is a recent Dutrow acquisition. Pacefigures.com's founder CJ listed his figures for the turnaround:

117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43

(hint - the 117 is the 1st time Dutrow running line.)

Another commenter who makes his figures says this.

I have been comparing speed figures with class for several years. It is a part of my handicapping. There are a couple of comparision charts out on the net. In the case of This One for Phil I would have to give him a Grade 1 level with the 117 BSF. This One for Phil would now rank with such notable 2008 American and International thoroughbreds such as Curlin, New Approach, Raven's Pass, Zarkava, Duke of Marmalade, Big Brown, Conduit, Goldikova and Henrythenavigator. We are somewhat familiar with their accomplishments. Maybe, although I have my doubts, This One for Phil is the one and the trainer is one also if he expects us to believe at this time on that track the horse has become a phenom.


In the old days we would have this horse winning the Derby and on a cover of a magazine, checking his progress. Now? Nah, not so much. He is simply a horse who ran out of his skin for a new trainer. I call it Saturday.

4 comments:

Amateurcapper said...

I tend to agree with Beyer, but ALAN BENOWITZ of THOROGRAPH actually picked THIS ONE'S FOR PHIL as a live longshot on JASON LEVIN's INSIDE RACING last Saturday. In fact, he also suggested an exacta with the favored 2nd finisher. According to BENOWITZ, his speed figures weren't that far behind YOU LUCKIE MANN. Considering DUTROW's 31% strike rate with new acquisitions, he surmised PHIL was a live longshot if factoring in possible improvement.
Personally, I feel Beyer's pain. I think I'm going to have to skip races where DUTROW is an "X-factor".
I'm going to pick against PHIL when the time is right...he stumbled at the start and nothing good can come of that occurrence. Eventually the Dutrow daze will wear off.

Anonymous said...

I don't think he would have been on the cover of a magazine "in the old days." Native dancer was 11 for 11 going into the the 1953 Derby and he didn't make the cover of Time magazine till a year later. Horses had to earn their props in those days.
The other day you posted stats for winners after layoffs. Take a look at Greg Griffith's stats at Tampa Bay. He has had 6 winners coming off 60+ days on the shelf. Average mutual is $12.00. He is one happy trainer. Today he has Speed Dance in the 6th race. Last ran at the bottom twice in November at Finger Lakes at over 40-1 and got beat double digits. Now he ends up in Florida with Griffith at some expense. Why? I can only hope.
RG

Pull the Pocket said...

Phil J left something that I can not find now..... in effect it said "I can not believe there are people defending these things on Paceadvantage and elsewhere"

RG,

You have roamed into the plains with that post. Your first tout ever as a commenter. We will be watching the sixth race today.

If you win you are 1 for 1. I like that percentage :)

Anonymous said...

You forgot August 7th, the big horse, Air McNair.
RG